Why does the American "burn" food
Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.09.20
This year, many areas of the world have encountered rare high -temperature drought weather in history, and high temperature weather increases energy demand and pushes energy prices; drought weather is not conducive to agricultural production, increases the expectations of reducing food production, and increases the uncertainty of international grain prices.
At the same time, some important Western food producers, especially the United States, to suppress high inflation, and introduced a number of policies to vigorously promote the use of ethanol gasoline to lower fuel prices. The US gas station has sold gasoline with higher hybrid ethanol content from June 1st to September 15th, the so -called "15%gasoline".
However, the production of fuel ethanol needs to consume a lot of food, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of energy supply tensions. This irresponsible approach has been widely questioned and condemned in the international community. In the context of great changes in extreme weather frequency and the undergone energy supply structure, it is necessary to highly be alert to the impact of some western countries' development of biomass energy on the grain market.
Text | Lu Yanchun Zhang Xuewu National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center
Edit | Ding Guizi Watch Think Tank
This article is an original article on the lookout think tank. If you need to reprint, please indicate the source of the Source of the Source of the Think Tank (ZHCZYJ) and the author's information, otherwise it will strictly investigate the legal responsibility.
1
Grain and fuel, the price increases sharply
Since the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia in 2020, the international market's grain and crude oil prices have gone through a short -term low valley, and continued to rise under the support of supply disturbances, demand recovery and financial liquidity support. Especially in late February this year, the Russian -Ukraine conflict broke out. Russia and Ukraine were important global food production and exporters. Russia was also the world's major energy production and exporters, and the international market's grain and energy prices rose sharply.
On July 21, 2022, the bargaining ship was loaded with food.
The global grain price index announced by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reached 170.1 in May, and the index was the highest level since the index. On March 7, the price of Brent crude oil futures once reached $ 139/barrel, the highest value since 2008.
Since May, with the tightening of the US -Europe monetary policy and the influence of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the price of grain and crude oil in the international market has fallen. Entering summer, with the increasingly affected high temperature and dry weather in history, grain production reduction in some European countries has become a set. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that global grain output in 2022 decreases 0.6%from 2021. Grain prices in the international market rose again. At the end of August, the prices of corn and wheat on the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) rose by 14.9%and 4.5%respectively from the end of last month.
Affected by the sharp rise in grain and crude oil prices, there are significant inflation except China.
Taking the United States as an example, the CPI of the resident consumer price index in June rose 9.1%year -on -year, a new high in more than 40 years. Among them, food prices rose by 10.4%year -on -year, and the CPI rose 1.44 percentage points in the month of the month; gasoline prices rose 60.2%, driving the CPI of the month of the month to rise by 2.3 percentage points, and gasoline prices became the most important single product to increase the level of inflation in the United States.
High inflation seriously threatened the support rate of the US Democratic Party. Therefore, on June 16, the House of Representatives of the United States Parliament passed the "Reduction of Food and Fuel Cost." In terms of agriculture, a special working group is established to support agricultural and food supply chains to prevent the bottleneck of supply chain and reduce food costs. In terms of fuel, it encourages the supply of ethanol fuel mixture, cancels the sales restrictions of 15%ethanol hybrid gasoline in summer, and allocates infrastructure and equipment for $ 200 million to expand biofuels.
The use of the use of fuel ethanol in the United States has been widely questioned and worried about the international community, especially the grain organization. The production of fuel ethanol needs to consume a lot of corn, which will exacerbate the global food supply that has been intensified, and push up the level of international grain prices.
According to data from the Food Program of the United Nations, affected by high grain prices, as of June 2022, among 82 countries around the world, the number of grain guarantee population has increased to 345 million. Since the last food crisis from 2007-2008, the dispute between food and fuel has resurrected.
2
Oil price soared, just "burned" food?
Biofuels mainly refer to liquid fuel for oil, including fuel ethanol, biological diesel and aviation biofuels. Due to production technology and economic factors, global bio -fuel raw materials are still mainly grain crops. Biofuels are the most important uses in addition to food and feed. Its development has opened up the channels for the grain market and energy market, and the food and energy are closely integrated.
On April 12, 2022, a biological treatment factory of a biofuel producer in Aiwa, USA.
The development of biofuels stems from solving energy safety problems and environmental protection.
People started to use grain to produce ethanol as internal combustion engine fuels. After the oil crisis of the 1970s, in order to ensure fuel supply, the United States and some European countries used the advantages of grain production to start vigorously developing biofuels. After the 1990s, because the level of carbon emissions of ethanol gasoline and biological diesel was far lower than fossil fuel, environmental protection emission reduction also became an important driving force for the development of the biofuel industry.
Driven by policies, the production of biofuel production consumption in countries and regions such as the United States and Europe has grown rapidly. From 2000 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of bio-fuel output in the United States reached 24%, and the average annual growth rate of European bio-fuel output reached 32%. Since 2011, with factors such as market saturation and the rapid development of production technology, source of raw materials, wind power photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, the growth rate of bio -fuel production consumption has slowed down. From 2011 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of bio-fuel production in the United States and Europe fell to 2.5%and 3.8%, respectively. At present, gasoline sold in most parts of the United States contains 10%ethanol, and biofuels account for about 3%of liquid fuel; the use rate of biofuels in European countries is about 2.2%. At the same time, the United States and Europe have also become major biofuel production and consumption regions in the world.
However, biofuels consume a lot of food, but cannot provide reliable energy guarantee.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that the global grain output in 2022 was about 2.8 billion tons in July this year, and the global per capita disposable grain was about 355 kg, which can basically ensure ration demand. However, the global grain output distribution is seriously uneven. Due to geographical resource endowments, agricultural technology, and agricultural support policies in the United States and some European countries, the total grain output and per capita ownership are relatively high.
Rich food provides the foundation for the development of biofuels. Taking the United States as an example, the United States is the world's largest corn producer, with a total corn output of more than 360 million tons in 20/21, accounting for 32.3 % of the global total output. Among the consumption of corn in the United States, the proportion of feed consumption is about 40 %, and exports account for about 15 %. The number of corn for the production of fuel ethanol accounts for about 35 %, about 130 million tons.
However, the proportion of bio -fuel consuming a large amount of food production is very low. According to statistics, the global bio -fuel output in 2021 was about 87 million tons, only about 2%of crude oil output. Even in the United States and Europe, after years of development, the proportion of biofuel production and sales accounted for liquid fuel. Therefore, under the existing conditions, biofuels can neither provide reliable energy guarantee, and it is also very limited to reducing carbon emission reduction.
The consumption of a large amount of grain crops to produce biological fuels in the United States and Europe not only cannot fundamentally solve the problem of fuel supply and price increase, but also leads to a decrease in grain supply in the international market, exacerbating the problem of food shortage in poor countries, and continuously caused a "grain crisis". This irresponsible approach is increasingly questioned and condemned by the international community, food organizations, and even environmental protection organizations.
Over the years, the development of biofuels has formed a relatively stable industrial market structure, becoming an important area for eliminating grain crops, and the original energy unidirectional support for food production has gradually evolved into two -way food and energy, thereby closely integrating the grain market and the energy market. stand up.
In the energy market, when the price of crude oil exceeds the cost of biofuel production, it will stimulate the demand for biofuels for grain and drive the price of grain. In the agricultural product market, when the price of grain price is lower than the profit and loss point of the production of biofuels, it will increase the transformation of grain to biofuels and support the price of grain.
The linkage of grain prices and crude oil prices is significantly enhanced. Since 2000, the price of corn in the international market is highly consistent with the trend of crude oil prices. According to estimates, the correlation coefficient of the two has reached 0.8. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) research, during the food crisis from 2007-2008, biofuel demand contributed 20%-50%to the rise in corn prices.
3
Turbulent or will continue
In the future, global food security issues may continue to deteriorate.
*Unexpected grain production and trade pattern will make the global grain market have been fluctuating for a long time.
With the advancement of global agricultural production technology, the overall supply of the world's grain output is greater than demand. However, a few developed countries with a small population in the world rely on advanced agricultural technology, high subsidies, and multinational grain trade giants, and have long mastered the right of major global food production and market discourse. Many developing countries, especially some of the most developed countries, have weak agricultural production systems, have not strong market competitiveness, and have a large dependence on food.
Such a supply and demand pattern makes the global grain market easily affected by factors such as epidemic situation, regional conflict, and extreme weather. Under the background of trade protectionism and globalization, the global "grain crisis" will appear more obvious. For example, at the beginning of the outbreak of the global new crown pneumonia in 2020, Vietnam, Haskstein and other countries banned or restricted grain exports. After the Russian -Ukraine conflict this year, more than 20 countries such as India have implemented food export restrictions.
*Climate change will have long -term negative effects on grain production.
Studies have shown that about 30%of the annual fluctuations of crop output are caused by abnormal weather such as high temperature, drought, and floods. Some institutions even believe that due to the influence of climate warming and increasing extreme weather, global grain supply will be difficult to meet the demand for population in 2050.
In addition, the energy market is turbulent may continue.
*The changes in the energy supply structure led by climate targets are facing many uncertain factors.
On the one hand, in order to control greenhouse gas emissions, the transformation of global energy consumption to low -carbon has become a consensus, and traditional energy facing insufficient investment. Investigation of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that in 2020 countries invested 326 billion US dollars in oil and gas upstream (exploration and development), a decrease of 31%from 2019, a down to many years. On the other hand, renewable energy, especially wind power photovoltaic, is affected by the imperfect technical conditions and supporting facilities, and it is difficult to become a stable and reliable source of the main source of energy in the short term. In addition, the rapid development of the new energy industry has increased significantly for rare metal mineral resources. Whether these ore resources can achieve long -term sufficient supply still have uncertainty.
*Geopamental conflict, globalization, and populism will exacerbate the turbulence of the energy market.
With the long -term turbulent situation in the Middle East, the Russian conflict has made the global energy market's political risks more prominent. Judging from the current situation, the long -term of the United States and its allies in the Russian -Ukraine conflict will fundamentally change the global energy supply pattern. The changes in energy trade flow and energy trade settlement will bring more risks. The global countercurrent caused by political games and populism will further exacerbate the turbulence of the energy market.
4
Coordinate and take care of them to avoid competing with others
Food and energy are the basic commodities of human survival and development, especially food, and their supply safety should be prioritized. All countries should strengthen cooperation, eliminate barriers, give play to their respective advantages, and ensure that the supply of food is sufficient and smooth channels for food globally. While energy production and consumption are developing in the direction of green and environmental protection, they should take care of them, and vigorously support food production to avoid competing with people.
First of all, break the hegemonicism, standardism, unblock the supply chain, curb the rise in food prices, and ensure the safety of global food supply.
Under the current natural resource conditions and scientific and technological levels, there is no shortage of grain and many oils worldwide in the world. However, Western countries led by the United States have long implemented hegemonism, constantly provoking international disputes, exacerbating regional conflicts, and making food and energy an important security issue. For example, the Russian conflict has affected the supply of grain such as wheat in the international market; the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela cut off the important sources of crude oil in the international market, making crude oil supply tension.
In particular, the United States has used its own agricultural advantages and the dominant position of the financial market. It has long been working on grain exports, grain assistance, seed trade, and even grain production and sales information, which has caused drastic fluctuations in supply and demand, prices and trade patterns in the international grain market; even During the global food crisis, regardless of the famine faced by low -income countries, a large amount of food produces biofuels.
Under this grain supply pattern, many small and medium -sized export countries can only choose to protect themselves. One wind blows grass, and immediately restricts grain exports, thereby further aggravating the grain crisis. Therefore, the international community has been actively advocating to promote fair trade, demanding that hegemonism and standardism, unblocking the industrial chain supply chain, curbing rising food prices, and ensuring the safety of global food supply.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization specifically pointed out in the "2022 Agricultural Product Market Status" report that the global agricultural grain system with good operation, integrating and orderly, can transport grain from areas with relatively low production costs to demand places to meet the number and diverse number of countries in the number of countries and diversification. Grain demand in sex to promote world food security. It also pointed out that more countries participate in global food and agricultural trade, which will increase the number of trade centers and create a relatively fair trade environment with structural changes.
Secondly, changing the path of biofuel development with food as the raw material, providing more food supply to the market, and helping the country lack of food to eliminate hunger.
After years of development, biofuels have developed, and their growth bottlenecks and negative effects have been recognized by more and more national and social organizations. Even in the United States, the production and use of ethanol gasoline are quite large. Some studies believe that even if all corn and soybeans are grown in the United States are used to produce biological energy, they can only meet the 12%of their gasoline demand and 6%of the demand for diesel. In addition, considering the large amount of water, electricity, and fuel consumed by biofuels and their grain raw materials in the production process, the development and utilization of grain biofuel can be said to be worthless "disassembling east walls to supplement the west wall".
At present, some countries are researching and promoting the second -generation biofuel production technology. Taking agricultural and forestry waste such as straw, grass, and wood chips as the main raw materials, biological cellulose can be transformed into biofuels. Make food back to its edible attributes and ensure the sustainable development of biofuels.
In addition, thanks to the progress of scientific and technological, in recent years, green energy such as global wind power photovoltaics has developed rapidly, and transportation such as automobiles has developed from internal combustion engines to electric directions, which has also reduced the necessity of grain biofuel production consumption.
According to estimates, under existing agricultural production conditions, if all global grain is used for food and feed, it will help to maintain the level of affordable grain prices for a long time. improve.
Uncle Ku's book is always there! Chinese translation publisher provides Uncle Ku with 15 "Quantum Marketing: Leading Future Innovation Marketing Law" to be presented to enthusiastic readers. In this story, all business people help everyone quickly understand the new changes in marketing, and the new marketing track welcomes the new world of the 5G era. This book has become a reference book for design MBA marketing courses such as Harvard Business College and Yale Management College. Please comment under the article that the top 3 (more than 30) who likes the highest likes will get a book.
- END -
Alas!The "Hua" babies who have love vegetable bags, the food is good ~
On July 29th, the New Guan Guan Pneumonia Epidemic Institute of Chengdu Chenghua D...
The national treasure of "living" is a vivid carrier of telling the story of Chinese stories
The National Museum of China has recently ushered in a 110th birthday. A series of rich exhibitions and activities have presented a colorful cultural feast for the public, showing the fruitful results