Climate prediction: Improve the autonomous mode, touch the climate "pulse" ｜ Welcome to the 20th major • Meteorological achievement ⑨

In the context of global warming, extreme weather and climate events such as drought and rainstorms have frequently occurred, and the demand for long -term climate predictions for production and life is increasing. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the meteorological department has continuously developed the core technology of climate prediction, research and development to improve climate models, improve prediction accuracy, and provide decision -making basis for disaster prevention and reduction and agricultural production.

Improve the monitoring business and fully capture the changes of multi -circle layer

In April of this year, the second year of my country released the results of the flood season climate forecast to the public. Extreme weather and climate events are too much ... "

The same climate prediction information is an important reference for decision -making when the State Council and the State Council and the State Defense Flood and Drought Resistance work. After several years of hard work, my country's climate system model has been continuously improved. The accuracy score of climate forecasting exceeds 70 points, an increase of nearly 5%over the past 10 years.

Climate prediction does not predict the weather on a certain day, but predict the climate status of a period of time. Will there be drought in the spring plowing season? The average summer precipitation is less or less or less than usual? Will there be extreme cold waves in winter? These are questions that need to be answered. However, it is not easy to answer such questions, and climate prediction has always been considered a worldwide scientific problem. One of the difficulties is the huge data required, from the Arctic sea ice, the ocean temperature to the land area snow data, and even the sun sunspot activity data.

To this end, the meteorological department has continuously improved the monitoring business of global meteorological element, and develops monitoring products such as global atmospheric circulation, ocean and land elements. Carry out the global atmospheric circulation and Asian monitoring, including sea level air pressure, wind farm, East Asian summer wind, Indian monsoon monitoring, Australian monsoon monitoring, etc.; The monitoring of the diagnosis of ENSO dynamic variable diagnosis and climate effect analysis of ENSO (ENSO) dynamic variables; the number and distance between the northern hemisphere and Eurasian snow and snow, the snow area of ​​the northern hemisphere, Eurasia, and key areas, the north and Antarctic sea ice Determines such as denseness and northern key waters.

The development of climate model continuously improves the accuracy of forecasting

After obtaining important observation data, you enter the most critical step -establishing a climate model. Mode prediction is the core technology of climate prediction. Upgrading climate prediction numerical model is the key to improving climate prediction capabilities.

Meteorological workers have paid decades of hard work for the development of independent climate prediction models.

From 2010 to 2014, the China Meteorological Administration successfully developed my country's new generation of global high-resolution sea-land-ice-ice-qi multi-circle coupling climate system model (BCC_CSM), which can predict the global atmospheric circulation, and for precipitation, temperature, etc. Forecasting is the core of the second -generation power climate model business forecast system. In November 2020, my country's third -generation climate model was operated. "The overall performance is advanced, and some performance and the level of the world are advanced." This is an authoritative evaluation of the review expert group.

Based on the BCC_CSM2.0 model, the new generation of southern Tao Dimination (ENSO) monitoring, analysis and predicting business system can make more accurate predictions on El Nino/Lamina 6 months in advance. In May 2017, the system's El Nino/Ranna forecast products were officially included in the ENSO multi -mode prediction framework of the climate and the social research center of the Social and Social International Research to compete with 18 numerical model products in the United States, Japan, Britain and other countries for global users to check in real time. Essence

In addition, the China Meteorological Administration establishes the combination of model localization and foreign data introduction to establish a Chinese multi -mode collection prediction system (CMME). Compared with a single mode prediction, CMME has a great advantage in global climate phenomenon and climate factor forecasts. In early 2020, CMME officially put into business operation.

In the past ten years, my country's extension period (10 days to 30 days) important weather process forecasting, climate event forecasting business capabilities, and climatic phenomenon prediction capabilities have been continuously improved. In response to the important global climate phenomenon that affects the climate of East Asia, the next season-season monitoring and analysis and forecasting integrated business products, forming ENSO monitoring analysis and predictive business system (SEMAP), ISV/MJO monitoring and forecasting system (IMPRESS) The system (PEACE) and mid-to-high latitudes-polar atmosphere, sea ice-snowy monitoring prediction system (Mates 1.0) and other business systems, which effectively improved the prediction level of important climate phenomena worldwide.

Release the economic and social development of prediction products to serve the economic and social development

In March last year, the meteorological department in my country for the first time released the climate trend forecasting product to the public for the first time, including the predictive conclusion of the climate trend prediction of the extension, month, seasons and annual years, marked the guidance of the past only providing reference to the government and decision -making levels. Sexual products, officially "fly into the home of ordinary people", benefit from all walks of life and the production and life of the people.

These predicted products continue to play a role in agriculture, water conservancy, energy, logistics, industry, finance and other fields.

Serving flood prevention and drought -China's terrain is complicated and affected by the great changes in the East Asian summer wind system. In terms of flood prevention and drought -resistant materials reserve, agricultural irrigation water and hydropower scheduling, accurate predictions can minimize disaster loss and maximize the use of water conservancy resources.

Helping agricultural production -the combination of accurate climate prediction and weather forecasting services is conducive to the safe operation of agricultural production. If you accurately predict whether the spring climate is abnormal, the spring rain, and the temperature of the temperature can help the agricultural sector and farmers make scientific decision -making on the selection and sowing of crops. Increasing economic production -climate forecast can assist relevant departments and enterprises in advance production plans and related arrangements to reduce economic losses. In terms of agricultural products, energy futures transactions in the financial field, it can also play an important role.

"The weather and climate forecast provided by meteorological departments at different time standards, played an important role in the field of clean energy power generation capacity, load prediction, and meteorological disaster warning." Said Huang Weizhi, staff member of the Electric Power Dispatch Center of Yunnan Power Grid Corporation.

In order to better cope with climate disaster, the China Meteorological Administration has carried out a disaster-oriented climate prediction business, and develops climate events in the second season-seasonal forecasting business.

Aiming at high -temperature, heavy precipitation, low temperature, typhoon and other high -affected disasters, and developing diversified diagnostic analysis products; based on power climate models to develop the time standards and probability objective prediction products, establish typhoon power prediction business; development affects atmospheric pollution Real-time monitoring and interactive diagnosis and analysis business of diffusion meteorological conditions; developing air pollution diffusion meteorological conditions based on the power model; The joint forecast of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is widely used in decision -making services related to the prevention and control of air pollution. Aiming at the important climate events in the process of East Asia's summer wind -South China Director, Meiyu, North China Rainy Season, West China Autumn Rain, establish an integrated business of monitoring, diagnosis and prediction of the rainy season; research and development affects the extension of the key atmospheric circulation system that starts to start morning and evening in the rainy season. Period -scale prediction products, establish climate event extension Periodic prediction business ...

"We will continue to improve the prediction capabilities and better meet the needs of society for climate prediction products." Said Xiao Yan, deputy director of the National Climate Center.

Produced by China Meteorological Administration Xuanke Center (China Meteorological News Agency)

Author: Wu Peng

Edit: Zhang Linhao Valley Xingyue Wanxia

Review: Duan Haoshu

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