Fan Xuanmei: In the chaos of the disaster, start the "God Perspective"

Text ｜ "China Science News" reporter Li Chenyang

Fan Xuanmei conducted field surveys in the Wenchuan Earthquake area.

Fan Xuanmei (No. 3 on the left of the second row) research team carried out scientific investigation of glacier ice lake disaster chain on the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau.

Fan Xuanmei (sixth from right) and internationally renowned experts in this field went to Wenchuan to conduct field investigations.

Fan Xuanmei (middle) conducted field investigations in the Liexi dammed lake.

Fan Xuanmei did not see the information of the 2022 "Scientific Exploration Award" for the first time. The text message worth 3 million yuan was lying lonely in the mobile phone for a long time, until the staff of the award secretary office called her another phone to inform her.

The rescue after the Sichuan Luding earthquake is still in progress, every minute and every second is a priceless treasure. She "only had time to be happy", and then re -devoted it to her work.

Since the earthquake on September 5, Fan Xuanmei and geological disaster prevention and geological environmental protection national key laboratory team has been busy with gyro. The drone carrying radar and cameras is the first to set off, passing over the stack of stacked from the southwest mountainous area, and shooting a large and high -precision ground image all the way. Radar is like a "perspective" existence, passing through the dense vegetation on the mountain, and capturing the hidden cracks under the rock layer. These small "Air Corps" complement each other with the domestic high -scoring 6 remote sensing satellites above Chongxiao. The data obtained are remitted into the corresponding model developed by the laboratory to form a prediction and evaluation report on the risk of local secondary disasters.

Which village and towns are most likely to suffer geological disasters? Which section is most likely to collapse? Which area is about to appear mudslides, or even a dammed lake? Every day, the report will "fly" to the case of the earthquake emergency headquarters, the national emergency management department, and the Ministry of Natural Resources to provide the most accurate strategies for front -line rescue and disaster prevention and mitigation.

Throughout the Mid -Autumn Festival, Fan Xuanmei and her partners were soaked in the laboratory. In the New Year's Eve, the family always complains about her and does not rest on holidays. At this time, Fan Xuanmei will "brainwash" them, saying that they are doing very important things. In Mid -Autumn Festival this year, everyone's mobile phones were brushed by the image of the disaster area. "This time, I don't need to 'brainwashing', they all understand me." Fan Xuanmei sighed.

Write all the scientific dreams of life into the declaration form

Fan Xuanmei is 41 years old. In her personal resume, "education and work experience" is very simple: Except for short -term exchanges and serving, the main stage of life is at Chengdu University of Technology.

The column of "reward and honor" looks quite full: in 2014, her research results of her main participant in the Wenchuan earthquake won the first prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award; in 2021, she took the lead in winning the Sichuan Natural Science Award. Wuling (only 5 items in the province) ...

The honorary titles of large and small are all coming: selected as the national "Jie Qing" and the National Talent Project of Ten million National Talent, "outstanding contributions to young and young experts", "high -level scientific and technological leaders of the Ministry of Natural Resources" "Outstanding Female Geological Science and Technology Worker Award" ... In 2016, she also won the International Engineering Geology and Environment Association (IAEG) Richard-Wolters Prize Young Scientist Award, becoming the first female scientist to win this award in my country.

She is one of the most influential scholars in the field of earthquake geological disasters and is selected as the top 2%of the world's scientists.

Nevertheless, when the "Scientific Exploration Award" was born in 2019, Fan Xuanmei was not particularly confident. In her opinion, this award "only 50 winners each year are allocated to each field, and it is about five or six. The disaster -related research I have done is just a very small branch in the engineering geological field." In addition, she has been working in the West for a long time. Compared with the scientific research peers in first -tier cities such as Beishangguang, "I always feel that I have little advantage." After thinking about it, she did not put it into action.

Until 2021, an expert nominated Fan Xuanmei. The "Scientific Exploration Award" sub -expert nomination and freedom of declaration, the nominations include more than 20 Nobel Prize, Turing Award, Philz Award and other international awards winners. Although Fan Xuanmei was unable to be selected this time, she was favored and recommended by the "big cow" in the field, which doubled her confidence.

In 2022, Fan Xuanmei took the initiative to declare the "Scientific Exploration Award". This time, she changed her strategy.

"After I did not win the award last year, I reflected it well and felt that I did not show my most distinctive work." Last time, the materials submitted by Fan Xuanmei focused on what articles I published, what results I achieved, and obtained. Which awards; this time, she decided to tell what specific problems her results solved, especially those who have failed to solve at home and abroad.

Fan Xuanmei's research field is "strong earthquake geological disaster." Simply put, after a strong earthquake, a series of secondary geological disasters will cause a series of secondary geological disasters. Over the years, Fan Xuanmei and the National Key Laboratory team are committed to developing a series of disaster prediction and early warning models, "the disaster -primary machines first", winning precious time for rescue and disaster. So far, the national key laboratory team of her geological disaster has successfully warned hundreds of large landslide incidents, recovering the lives and property of tens of thousands of people, and reducing the direct economic losses of billions of yuan.

"I have not published a top issue in the field of earth, but over the years, we have indeed worked hard to write the paper on the land of the motherland. And property security. "Fan Xuanmei told the China Science News," Perhaps the scientific exploration award "also has the same values." In addition, she also noticed that this award "for the future, the award potential, and encourage exploration" The concept, so I wrote my scientific dreams that I wanted to do in the next 10 years, 20 years, and even my life.

"My work in recent years is also a job that I want to do in the future. It is about the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau." She said.

The Qinghai -Tibet Plateau is the forefront of earth scientific research and a natural laboratory that global geological workers dream of. At the same time, strong structural movements, earthquakes, and global climate changes have also made the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau increasingly "dangerous", becoming the most likely to cause huge geological disasters.

Guarding the plateau, guarding the plateau people, and the national major strategic project above the plateau -Sichuan -Tibet Railway, Yaxia Hydropower Station, etc. are Fan Xuanmei's biggest dream.

The trajectory of life that was "hit" by the earthquake

Fan Xuanmei grew up in Gansu and was a Northwest girl. In 2000, she was admitted to Chengdu University of Technology's engineering geological specialty, and came from Northwest to the southwest. Her most important stage of life is inseparable from the vast western land of the motherland.

On May 12, 2008, Wenchuan's shocks shocked her life trajectory from a little bit.

At that time, Fan Xuanmei was studying Bosiyi at Chengdu University of Technology. At the time of the earthquake, she was on the 6th floor of the student dormitory, and the earthquake was very strong. Seeing that the people around me were unable to care about anything, she rushed downstairs. She tried to maintain a little "calmness" that geological scholars should have, grabbed the mobile phone and key, and hurriedly ran downstairs. The school organized everyone to concentrate on the playground, and tent tents that night.

In a chaos, she turned her eyes into the knowledgeable teachers. I saw the teacher's complexion: "This time it may be a earthquake in Longmen Mountain broken belt, the earthquake level is very high, the casualties are definitely not small, and the subsequent secondary disasters will only be a lot." A verification.

After staying in the tent for more than a day, Fan Xuanmei came to the Beichuan area with the tutor. Starting from undergraduate, Fan Xuanmei has reached many disaster scenes, but never shocked like this time. In the past cognition, the landslides mainly occurred in places where the soil was loose and broken. At this moment, the hardest mountains collapsed from the top, and some mountains seemed to be cut off by the giant sword. The "disaster chain" triggered by the main shock spread quickly like a Domino card, and the goals and mudslides were destroyed, crushing the house, and intercepting the river ... The largest library capacity of the lake reaches 300 million cubic meters, like a giant bowl hanging on the heads of all beings, which may be covered downstream at any time.

"In human records, no earthquake has never been like the Wenchuan earthquake, which has caused more than 200,000 secondary disasters." Fan Xuanmei said, "And such a secondary disaster also has a significant 'sequelae', 10 after the earthquake 10, 10 after the earthquake 10, 10 after the earthquake, 10 after the earthquake, 10 after the earthquake. During the time around the year, it was the high -frequency explosion period of disasters such as mudslides, and it would also affect the evolution of mountain landforms at a longer period of time. "

Along the way, the body of the victims can be seen everywhere, some are cautiously covered, and some are still exposed for various reasons. Fan Xuanmei also saw the buried Beichuan Middle School and saw the children who were killed unfortunately. The sorrow of the family's ruin was one after another, and he couldn't linger in his ears for a long time.

Under the natural disaster, for the first time, she felt that humans were so small and life was so fragile. But unlike most people, her profession tells her: Faced with natural disasters, humans are not completely incompetent. On the contrary, they do not work enough.

"The simplest example is that if people like schools and hospitals are densely places, can you avoid the high incidence of geological disasters at the beginning of the site selection? Forced her to make the most important decision.

Fan Xuanmei's doctoral subject was originally a normal landslide. If she did it along this topic, she would be able to graduate with a light car. But at this moment, she thought: "Since I was doing geological disaster research, I should choose the most serious disaster threatening to the people's life and property, and choose the most difficult scientific issue."

"For the staff who studied geological disasters, the safety of the lives and property of the people in the mountains is just like the doctor's cure and saving people.

Since then, she has changed the research direction, and the various geological disasters induced by earthquakes and earthquakes are "on the bar."

Where is the most dangerous place during earthquakes? Most people may answer "in the house". However, in the Wenchuan earthquake, at least 1/3 of the casualties are caused by geological disasters induced by earthquakes and subsequent secondary geological disasters. Outdoor is not as safe as expected. The landslides that are sudden along the road and falling from the sky from time to time, the death and losses are far exceeding expectations.

In the following 14 years, Fan Xuanmei's team established three major forecast models: earthquakes induced landslide prediction models, post -earthquake geological disasters and disaster chain values ​​simulation prediction models, and post -earthquake mudslide warning models.

These models are applied to major geological disasters again and again, which largely changes the ways and situations of post -earthquake rescue and disaster relief. From "Blind People Touching Elephant" to opening "God Perspective"

"Blind Box" was Fan Xuanmei's impression of the Wenchuan disaster. At that time, the world's remote sensing and local observation technology were not developed. One week after the earthquake, people got the first batch of remote sensing data. Where the damage is the most serious, and the dammed lake in which area appears, it is black.

Fan Xuanmei knows that they must not only pry the "blind box" open, but also "overlook" from higher places to look at the complex situation of the rapidly changing after the disaster.

After the Wenchuan earthquake, the western part of China has not been calm. In 2010, the Yushu Earthquake in Qinghai, level 7.1; in 2013, the Ya'an Earthquake in Sichuan, level 7.0; in 2014, the Yutian Earthquake in Xinjiang, 7.3; in 2017, Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in Sichuan, level 7.0 ...

The world is not benevolent, and the mountains and rivers are ruthless. Fortunately, there is such a group of "heart people": in the strong earthquake disaster, Fan Xuanmei and her colleagues bravely penetrate the danger, collect valuable images and data, and continue to promote people's recognition of the earthquake geological disaster. Know.

In the end, the Fan Xuanmei team established an earthquake prediction model based on the nearly 400,000 disaster data induced by more than 30 earthquakes around the world and combined with the latest artificial intelligence algorithm.

With this model, once the earthquake occurs, it can quickly and accurately predict the scope of the occurrence of the occurrence of the landslide. This model is actually applied to nearly 10 earthquakes around the world, including the Japanese Hokkaido earthquake, the Nepal earthquake, the Jiuzhaigou earthquake in China, and the Luding earthquake. Under actual combat, the accuracy of the model prediction reaches more than 80%, which is about 20%compared to the accuracy of the model model of the US Geological Survey.

In addition, they also took the lead in the tracing of long -term evolution of geological disasters after the earthquake. Among them, the data on the Wenchuan earthquake had continued to track for 14 years. Their vision is not limited to domestic, but has collected at least 10 large -scale earthquake data in the world, and continuously updates the database.

On the basis of this, the post -earthquake geological disaster and disaster chain value simulation prediction model can be effectively predicted to effectively predict where the secondary landslides will occur under rainfall, which may occur in the landscape of mudslides, which will occur in the river flow in which places will occur. The flood disaster chain ... they can already warn the geological disaster dozens of minutes in advance, so that people will evacuate from dangerous lots in time.

These achievements provide scientific basis for the planning line of major highways and railway projects in the earthquake areas, and also provide important security guarantees for the re -opening up of the Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area.

If people have seen geological disasters, like blind people, these scientists are now gradually opening the "God's Perspective." The chaos of the landscape and the sludge is gradually becoming clear. It is clear that it can be painted on the drawing, written in the briefing, and presented on the screen of the mobile phone.

During the recent Luding earthquake, Fan Xuanmei team achieved an hourly response, basically reporting the secondary disaster warning every two hours. In the planning, she can distinguish thousands of miles away -recalling her "two eyes and one eyebrow" 14 years ago, she couldn't help feeling.

Go through thousands of mountains and rivers, determine your life to love

Fan Xuanmei, who was brisk and refreshing, smiled, was a rose that drove in the west.

For more than 20 years, the trend of "Peacock Flying Southeast" has come. She has not been taken care of by the "wind", but she has never really left here.

In fact, when he was admitted to Chengdu University of Technology, Fan Xuanmei was a bit unhappy. Her grades have always been very good, but because of the mistakes of the college entrance examination, they passed by the "985" and "211" schools of Beishangguang. When I came to the class to look at it, there were very few girls, and she was laughed as a "monk class", which made her doubt whether she had chosen the wrong professional. At the lowest time, she even wanted to drop out of school, and just returned to the furnace for one year.

But the chance of life is wonderful. One day, she ate in the cafeteria and met a kind old gentleman. In the chat, the old gentleman said, "Our school may not be very high, but our major can be ranked in the top three in the country. Young people choose here, which is great in the future."

Later, Fan Xuanmei knew that the old gentleman was Professor Wang Shitian, one of the famous "Four King Kong" in the engineering geological major of Chengdu University of Technology, who had retired at the time.

Mr. Wang's words, let Fan Xuanmei settle down, this "fixed" is more than 20 years. Perhaps the environment in the western region is not superior enough, the resources are not abundant, and the opportunities are not abundant, but this is the place closest to various geological disasters, and it is the best base that allows them to charge them as soon as possible.

范宣梅相信，他们之所以能做出一些国内外其他团队没能做出的成果，“就是因为我们保留了地质学人实地考察的传统。先进的人工智能方法，只有依托于真实的、大量的、 One -handed geological data can play the greatest role. "

There was an enviable opportunity in front of Fan Xuanmei. In 2014, the United Nations is global to recruit the only emergency treatment and prevention experts in disaster. For the longing for the vast world, Fan Xuanmei tried to report the name, and welcomed her with the fiercely competitive multi -round defense and interview. No one expected that the young woman from local colleges and universities in China stood out from the five levels and six generals, and stood out from a doctoral doctoral and doctoral schools such as Oxford and Cambridge, and got this valuable offer (hiring notice). In the next year, she has gone through many places and accepted the then Secretary -General of the United Nations. At the time, the Ebola epidemic was raging and scared his family. Bangladesh's floods, tsunami in Indonesia ... She saw different challenges facing different land, and also carried out academic exchanges with locals. While sharing the disaster response to professional knowledge with everyone, she also broaden her horizons and enriched her vision. Observation bag.

In many people's eyes, this is a perfect job: it is nine to five, decent -decent salary, and the office in the picturesque Switzerland can also enter and exit various "tall" occasions. Later, the United Nations gave her a nearly permanent offer, hoping that she could stay in work for a long time.

Fan Xuanmei tangled briefly, and then declined the affection. A friend did not understand her choice. She only gave one example: "When I was in the office here, I started watching the watch in less than get off work every day; and when I was working in a domestic laboratory, I could always forget After time, I even forgot to eat. This contrast made me confident what my true love is. "

In this way, Fan Xuanmei returned to Chengdu University of Technology -this is not "985" or "211" local universities. But she knew that there were first -class engineering geological disciplines in the country, and the only national key laboratory in the field of geological disaster. It may not be the best place, but for Fan Xuanmei's dream, it is the right place.

How to describe the love of her research on geological disasters?

Fan Xuanmei thought for a while, and then said in a brisk tone: "Probably -it has both the enthusiasm of the first love and the marriage -like persistence."

Fan Xuanmei worked at the headquarters of the United Nations.

In 2016, Fan Xuanmei (third from right) became the first female winner of the International Engineering Geology and Environment Association Richard Wolters Youth Science and Technology Award.

Fan Xuanmei made a special invitation report at the University of Tevin in the Netherlands.

(This version of the picture is provided by the interviewee)

"China Science News" (2022-09-19, 4th edition)

Edit | Zhao Lu

Capture | Zhihai

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