Interview with the person in charge of the Asia -Pacific Typhoon Research Center: There may be more and more typhoons who run to the north in the future

After landing in Zhoushan, Zhejiang, Shanghai Fengxian, and Qingdao in Shandong, at 12:40 noon on September 16, "Plum Blossom" landed again in Dalian, Liaoning. On the night, the typhoon "plum blossom" became a temperate cyclone, and the Central Meteorological Observatory stopped the number.

On September 16, due to the influence of the typhoon "plum blossom", the Donggang waters in Dalian set off a huge wave. Figure/IC Photo

"Plum Blossoms" is the only four typhoon in my country that belongs to four different provinces. It is the first typhoon to land in the northeast since this century. It is also the strongest typhoon in Shanghai since 1950.

On September 14, the "Chasing Team" of the Asia -Pacific Typhoon Research Center came to Shanghai Pudong New District to observe the typhoon "Plum Blossom". This is the first time in my country to launch a high -precision observation of the typhoon wind field in the core area of ​​the city. For the first time, the typhoon wind field around the Oriental Pearl was observed.

This observation test also completely recorded the trajectory of typhoons through a city: from the seaside to the suburbs, to the city, the city center, and then to the suburbs.

Tang Jie, the head of the Asia -Pacific Typhoon Research Center and deputy director of the Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of China Meteorological Administration, introduced that the fine structure of the typhoon wind field in the core area of ​​the urban core area can be more accurately evaluated by the impact of typhoon on large buildings and urban neighborhoods. Improve the disaster reduction capacity of the city.

The existing conclusion states that with global warming and climate change, the typhoon path will gradually extend to inland areas. In the future, more typhoon may affect my country's mid -to -high latitudes. Tang Jie said that the rules of changes in wind and rain are replicated and promoted. The conclusions of observation tests in Shanghai can also be promoted to other cities, providing accurate scientific basis for disaster reduction in the anti -demotions of various coastal cities across the country in the future.

City high -rise buildings make the typhoon wind farm more complicated

Beijing News: The previous research team was stationed at the sea and waited for the wind. After the "plum blossom" approached, it was located in the city to observe it with Lujiazui as the core area. Why?

Tang Jie: This is a high -precision typhoon wind field observation test at the core of Lujiazui City's high -rise buildings.

Typhoon is the heaviest and most frequent impact in weather disasters. There are about 25 to 27 typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. Historical records show that the strongest precipitation and the largest wind in East China and South China are caused by typhoons by typhoons. Essence

Coastal cities like Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Shenzhen are more or less affected by typhoons every year. In 2017, "Tiange" had a very strong impact on the disasters of Xiamen in Zhuhai and 2018 "Mangosteen" on Shenzhen and 2016 "Morandi's", especially the extreme wind disasters in the city. Therefore, how the typhoon wind field in the large urban agglomeration evolves is a very realistic research proposition.

With the acceleration of my country's urbanization process, there are more and more tall buildings in the large coastal cities. When the typhoon comes, the wind farm between the high -rise buildings is more complicated. We want to see how the typhoon wind farm will change in the high -rise group of hundreds of meters during the influence of "plum blossoms" to provide science for disaster prevention and mitigation of future cities in the future. in accordance with.

For example, we can know through the test that when the typhoon arrives, there are typical urban high -rise groups like Lujiazui. It is more prone to high -altitude pendants. This pair of high -rise billboards, where to build a shelter point, and even planning of coastal urban blocks, etc., are of guiding value.

Beijing News: In my simple understanding, buildings can block the wind. What will happen to the typhoon through the high -rise group?

Tang Jie: Simply put, if it is on the back of the wind, the high -rise building has a certain blocking effect on the wind; but if there is a gust of wind through the two buildings, the building will accelerate the wind. "Just like the wind in the canyon is always fierce than the plain wind, the narrow area between the high -rise buildings is also particularly strong.

Furthermore, if there are many high -rise buildings around, how will the "narrow pipe effects" under the influence of heavy buildings will be reflected? This requires scientific discussions. And not just flat ground, in places such as 50 meters or 100 meters, the wind speed and direction of high -rise buildings are also difficult to estimate. Typhoon, known for its huge volume and complex wind farm, has evolved in the wind farm of high -rise buildings in the city, which is worth studying.

In the past, we knew that the evolution of typhoons in the wind farm in the city was often through very limited ground observations and some computer simulation simulation, which was not accurate. Therefore, this time we want to use high -precision lidar to understand the typhoon in the city, observe the changes in wind speeds and wind direction between high -rise buildings, and changes in wind speed and wind direction at different heights. This time is the first high -precision observation of the typhoon wind field in the core area of ​​the city.

Directly observe the peripheral wind field of Oriental Pearl

Beijing News: How do you observe the typhoon?

Tang Jie: Typhoon landing from the southeast, from south to north, we have a complete observation route: from the seaside to the suburbs, to the city, the city center, and then to the suburbs.

We installed monitoring equipment respectively in Yangshan Port District, the most sea in Shanghai, Huinan Town in the suburbs, Century Park in the urban area, Lujiazui in the city center, and Baoshan District in the northern part of the city. We can master the information such as wind speed and wind direction changes.

The research team placed in Yangshan Port area to monitor typhoon. Interviewee confidence

The research team placed a mobile typhoon detection vehicle in Huinan Town. The bottom of the interviewee's picture picture is the laser tester placed by the research team at the Greenland Park of Lujiazui to monitor typhoons. Interviewee confidence

Beijing News: What is the effect of this test observation?

Tang Jie: Data collection starts officially on the afternoon of September 14 and ends on the afternoon of the 15th. At present, the data that is collected is very good. In this observation test, you can see the changes in the typhoon wind field structure of four or five hundred meters, and you can see up to 800 meters to a kilometer. For example, in Lujiazui, we can see the typhoon wind farm on the height of seven or eight hundred meters of height. This has never seen it before.

Lujiazui has several hundred -meter -high buildings such as Oriental Pearls. In the past, there were few opportunities to directly observe such an peripheral wind farm. Now you can directly see the changes in the typhoon wind field of the Oriental Pearl. Moreover, there are several very high buildings around the Oriental Pearl, which will have the "narrow pipe effect" that we just mentioned. Now you can grasp the evolution of the wind farm between high -rise buildings through observation, and you can accurately evaluate the typhoon to large buildings to large buildings. And the influence of the surrounding neighborhoods.

Now some preliminary conclusions show that in the high -rise groups, the gusts and wind cuts generated by typhoons are relatively large. Unlike the surrounding suburbs, the changes in wind speed and wind direction in urban areas are faster.

On September 16, "Plum Blossoms" landed in Dalian, Liaoning. The test conclusions we did in Shanghai could also be promoted to Dalian. In essence, the rules of changes in wind and rain were replicated and promoted. In the future, we also need to do more tests and further promote the conclusions of the test to make the data more convincing.

In my country's typhoon monitoring, airplane monitoring is a short board

Beijing News: In this observation, the research team used some black technology to debut for the first time. What equipment is it?

Tang Jie: We used unmanned land detectors, commonly known as machine dogs, carrying a meteorological detection equipment. When the typhoon comes, the environment is very harsh, which is very dangerous for people. This time we are exploratory attempts to see if we can use this machine dog to make some observations in harsh environments.

"Robot dog" with a meteorological detection equipment. Interviewee confidence

In the process of using, we found that there are some problems with the machine dog. It is okay, but the rain is heavy. There may be rainwater to seep into the circuit board. The machine dog will be a bit out of control and turn around in place.

The equipment has been changed while doing. In recent years, many observation equipment manufacturers have cooperated with us to carry out observations, expose problems, and solve problems under extreme weather conditions. Finally, the quality and performance of domestic equipment are improved. Progress of equipment.

The devices we use this time are basically domestic, and the purchase cost is relatively low. In the past, we had to use imported equipment, and the cost may be 5 to 10 times. In recent years, our country's economy and technology are developing, and it is easier to buy more domestic observation equipment, which is one of the reasons for the success of this test.

Beijing News: What are the typhoon monitoring methods in my country? How to develop and progress in monitoring typhoons?

Tang Jie: We now detect typhoons mainly by satellites and radars. They are good tools for monitoring typhoons. You can also observe the typhoon with maritime aircraft.

In terms of typhoon monitoring, we need to further improve mobile observations, especially aircraft observations. Nowadays, the level of defense and forecasting of typhoons in my country and the level of observation of the fixed ground station network are not very different from the United States as a whole, but our observation capacity for typhoons at sea needs to be improved.

The United States is an aircraft as the core hurricane detection system. Their aircraft can always follow the last moment before the hurricane landing. At present, our aircraft observation has not yet done. In fact, we often have questions about the typhoon, including when it is on, and there is any questions. The shortcomings of aircraft observations have restricted our prediction and further improvement of the level of the platform.

An important bottleneck in China's anti -disaster reduction is that the lack of business -oriented aircraft observation of typhoons at sea, which is a common consensus of the typhoon research community.

Global warming leads to the trend of typhoon inland inland

Beijing News: Some experts said before that the summer is hot this summer, and energy has accumulated in the ocean, which has led to the rapid development of typhoons in summer and autumn. This year's "plum blossoms" can go deep into the inland, which has something to do with global warming and climate change?

Tang Jie: In recent years, research also believes that with the further development of climate change and global warming in the future, typhoons have become more and more moved to medium and high latitudes. Increasingly, the risk of disaster will eventually become higher and higher.

After the global warming, the overall ocean temperature will rise. Relatively speaking, the typhoon absorption will be more energy. In addition, the atmospheric circulation will also be more conducive big. For our country, this time the typhoon ran to Liaoning Province, and more and more typhoons may go to the north in the future.

Beijing News: What should I do if I encounter a typhoon?

Tang Jie: When typhoons are coming, you must watch the typhoon warning information in time, and strictly follow the typhoon warning information for production activities and life. Typhoon is very violent and discontinuous, and the deception is great. In the typhoon, the seaside was still calm a few minutes ago, and the wind became particularly large after a minute.

In addition, we must particularly remind tourists that when we were observing in the wild in the wild, we often see that some tourists were curious when they heard that there were typhoons.dangerous.People who often do observations know that the sun can still see the sun before the typhoon coming, and it will suddenly storm and storm in less than 10 minutes.In addition, in the peripheral areas of typhoons, lighting, tornado or heavy rain will be affected, and safety needs to be paid to safety.

Beijing News reporter Wang Jingxi

Editor Liu Qianxian school pair Fu Chunzheng

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