After two years, the RMB breaks the "7" two -way fluctuations and gradually become normal

The central bank's statement: sufficient exchange rate tools

Yangcheng Evening News all -media reporter Dai Manman

On September 16th, the RMB against the US dollar fell below the "7" mark at the opening rate of the US dollar. The closing of 7.0166 during the day of 16:30, a 391 basis point from the previous trading day, hit a new low in 26 months. On September 15th, the offshore RMB ahead of the day, the US dollar took the lead in the US dollar below 7. This is the "breaking 7" for two years since the "Break 7" in 2020 "breaking 7".

What does it mean to break the "7" on the offshore and the shore price? Affects geometry? The industry generally believes that the "7" of RMB can only mean that the US dollar is strong, and there will be no basis for the continuous depreciation of the RMB in the future.

There is no basis for the continuous depreciation of the renminbi

Why is the renminbi depreciated? In fact, as early as earlier this month, Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the People's Bank of China, at the routine blower of the State Council, the depreciation of the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate to the US dollar and other currencies publicly responded publicly: "In the SDR currency basket, a basic one is basic The situation is that the US dollar has appreciated, the RMB has also appreciated, but the appreciation of the US dollar is greater than the appreciation of the RMB. Therefore, the renminbi does not have a comprehensive depreciation. "

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out in the analysis that after two years of the RMB, "breaking 7" again, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's influence of tightening the monetary policy in order to suppress high inflation. As the US dollar index continues to strengthen, Most of the non -US dollar currency, including RMB, has depreciated to varying degrees. Compared with the currencies of major developed economies such as British pounds, euro, and yen, the depreciation of the RMB is relatively small, and the RMB exchange rate index is generally stable.

"From the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter has a significant rise from the second quarter. The level of inflation is moderate and controllable, and the international revenue and expenditure conditions are good. Especially for regular projects and direct investment basic projects such as income and expenditure, The surplus lays the foundation for the stable exchange rate of the RMB and the stable operation of the foreign exchange market. There is no basis for the renminbi to continue to depreciate. "Wen Bin pointed out.

Guide foreign trade enterprises to establish exchange rate risk neutral consciousness

How does the RMB break the "7" of the US dollar, and how does it affect ordinary people? The central bank had previously given answers when the RMB was broken "7". From the perspective of the central bank, in the past 20 years, when the RMB pair of US dollars and a basket of currency rose more and less, the main financial assets of the Chinese people were In terms of renminbi, the best protection, its external purchasing power has steadily rising.

Earlier, Liu Guoqiang said, for example, for example, from January to August this year, the euro depreciated by 12%, the pound depreciated by 14%, the yen depreciated by 17%, and the renminbi depreciated by 8%. This also means that in the SDR basket, it should be said that in addition to the depreciation of the US dollar, the renminbi is appreciated with non -US dollar currency.

The impact of the RMB exchange rate on enterprises, Li Fei, assistant Minister of Commerce, said on September 5 that the Ministry of Commerce will continue to guide foreign trade enterprises to establish exchange rate risk neutral consciousness with the People's Bank of China, foreign exchange bureau and other departments, and encourage bank institutions to innovate and optimize Products provide exchange rate avoidance and cross -border RMB settlement services for more small and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises.

Two -way fluctuations in the short term will become the norm

Liu Guoqiang said that in addition to looking at the exchange rate, he must pay attention to the changes in the market. At present, the Chinese foreign exchange market is operating normally, the flow of cross -border funds is orderly, and it is affected by the overflow effect of US monetary policy, but the impact is controllable. This is due to the long -term good fundamentals of China's economy and strong economic toughness. In addition, it also benefits from China's exchange rate mechanism, and the elasticity of the exchange rate has also increased significantly. The function of automatic stabilizer.

"I think the recognition of the RMB in the future will continue to increase, which is a long -term trend." Liu Guoqiang said that two -way fluctuations in the short term are a normal state, with two -way fluctuations, and there will be no "unilateral cities". The point is not allowed, don't bet on a certain point. "Liu Guoqiang suggested.

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