Is the "coal power awakening" such as France and Germany, is it the backwardness of energy exploration?

[Global Times, Australia, Germany, and the United States special reporter Daqiao Aoki Zhang Sisi Global Times reporter Yuan Jirong Gao Xun] "France restarted coal power plants." France's Sanjwald Coal Power Plant officially restarted. When the full load is running, the coal power plant will meet the power consumption needs of about one -third of the families in the Greater East District of France. The US Energy Analysis Website Oilprice wrote on the same day that although it promises to stay away from coal, many countries in the world still rely on coal production and imports to meet energy needs. It is even more worrying that European countries have just announced last year in the middle of the decade last year. The target of the use of coal is stopped, but the growth of coal production and import and export data this summer shows that the world is far from getting rid of the dependence on coal.

The coal that is not favored is back again

Not only in France, Germany, Poland and other countries are also vigorously promoting coal power generation. Victoria, Energy Economist in Berlin, Germany, told the Global Times reporter that European restarted coal power is mainly because it is the simplest and fast way to replace natural gas. In mid -July, the German government decided to allow coal or petroleum power plants to run again to save natural gas. The initial period of the decree was from April 2023. Germany hopes to use these two kinds of fossil fuel power generation to replace natural gas power generation, which currently accounts for about 10%of the country's overall energy sources. In early August, Millheim Power Plant, located in Saxony, Germany, was first restarted. In late August, the Heiden No. 4 coal power plant in the North Rhine-Westfa also began to serve again. On September 13, a senior executive of German Electric Power Corporation Steiago said the company was ready to provide 23 Gaval production capacity for the winter power market.

According to the German "Business Daily", 60%of Greek's power production came from coal power in 2005. By 2021, the proportion fell to 11%. In the same period, the use of natural gas increased from 14%to 41%, but because of Russia and Ukraine In conflict, the government emergency energy plan stipulates that the amount of coal power will be doubled in the next 12 months.

The US Energy Analysis Website OilPrice reported that Britain promised to close the gate of all its coal factories one year before 2024, but now it requires energy companies to increase coal output to help the country avoid winter power outages; The closure of the station will be postponed now, and several other power stations will be on standby so that more electricity will be provided to the State Grid when needed. Now, even Gasten Smith, a green and peaceful organization climate and energy expert, also said at the end of August: "It is painful to restart the closed coal power plant that has been closed, but it is also inevitable." In order not to cause climate protection, now The additional emissions must be discharged in the next few years.

In addition to Europe, US coal consumption has also increased for the first time since 2013. The "Short -term Energy Outlook Report" released by the US Energy Information Administration in September predicts that US coal production will increase by 22 million tons in 2022, a total of 600 million tons. It is also mentioned that because the demand for power in the United States has increased at a rate of 2.5%per year, coal production and power generation will continue to increase to 2027. Renewable energy is the speed of alternative. "

The long -season climate in the fall of 2021 caused multiple coal mines in India to flood, and this coal crisis has continued until now. In April of this year, due to the anxiety of coal inventory and the hot weather increased the demand for power, India has gone through the most serious power off -power disconnection accident in 6 years. Although India's coal resources are abundant, they still cannot meet domestic needs. According to data from the Ministry of Coal Ministry of Coal, from 2021 to 2022, the total output of Indian coal was 780 million tons, with a total demand of 980 million tons. Among them, about 21.4%of coal needs to be imported, and the main importing countries are Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. According to Reuters, India ’s imported from power coal and coking coal in June this year exceeded 25 million tons, setting a record of imports. India's "Cast City Daily" reported that due to the shortage of supply, the Indian Coal Department was preparing to open 12 coal mines by the end of the year.

Does the energy structure change go back?

According to the Paris Agreement, all countries have promised to increase the degree of temperature from 1.5 degrees Celsius through emission reduction efforts and enhanced operations every 5 years. According to the UN's intergovernmental climate change special committee, in order to achieve the goals, the amount of coal use will be reduced by about 4/5 in the next 10 years.

The inspiration of restarted coal power to China in Europe

The route map of the International Energy Agency shows that developed economies need to withdraw from coal power in 2030, and other countries need to withdraw in 2040.

Reuters reports that Europe has invested a lot of funds in the construction of green energy infrastructure and increased the share of renewable energy power generation by 15%. The region also set up bold renewable energy use goals, including 2030 renewable renewable by 2030 The proportion of energy consumption (including transportation, family and industries) has increased to 32%. However, the Russian and Ukraine conflict suspended this momentum, and the war led to the surge in natural gas and coal prices, and the government's finance was hit. This makes European decision makers in a difficult situation that must be stable on the environment, which may further weaken its right to speak in the climate.

"I think that in the long run, the increase in the demand for coal power this year has a positive impact on the changes in global energy structure. This year, some Western countries have re -examined and paid attention to the long -term and positives of coal power in the entire power system and energy system. Role. This role has been eliminated for a long time. "Liu Pei, an associate professor of the Department of Energy and Power Engineering of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter that" different national resource endowments, the energy situation and quantity that can be used are also different, but The connotation is the same. For a long time, some Western countries have tried to form such a concept in public opinion, that is, the concept of large -scale use of renewable energy is more advanced than the use of fossil energy. The system should be a diversified, mixed, and complementary system. "Who is seizing the opportunity to make a profit

Despite far away, many European powers are turning to Australia to fill the gap caused by sanctions on Russia. In addition, Australia continues to provide coal supply to Asian countries. According to the export data of Newcastle Port in Australia, in August this year, the export of coal exports of Newcastle Port was 13.0765 million tons. Although it decreased by 9.14%year -on -year, it increased by 69.18%month -on -month, a new high since February of this year. The coal export volume of the month was A $ 6.408 billion, a year -on -year increase of 109.9%, and a 59.89%increase of 59.89%month -on -month. Australian Treasury Minister Chalmos acknowledged that the rise in the export price of mineral resources brought unexpected wealth to Australian companies. Coal is one of the main commodities of Australia exports, with an annual export value of approximately A $ 40 billion.

The demand for coal power in Europe has risen, pushing up the price of coal. The British "Financial Times" reported that the winter is approaching the energy crisis that plagues Europe. Sakra, the coal pricing director of the price assessment company Agus Media, said: "Coal prices have steadily risen in the past 12 months to 18 months." The US dollar is higher than the $ 433.24 of the previous week. According to analysts, this price is mainly affected by high -quality power coal used in European power plants.

The new Australian government's legislation promises to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 and greatly improve the target of 2030 emission reduction, mainly to gradually reduce the large -scale carbon emissions enterprises in the energy and mineral industry. However, the actual situation is that the Australian government has been approved new coal mine projects in recent years. Australian Prime Minister Albunse also refused to eliminate coal or prevent the construction of new coal mines. The "mineral technology" predicts that between 2022 and 2026, Australian coal mines will maintain a steady increase in a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%, reaching a new high of about 590 million tons in 2026.

China deeply cultivated diversified energy structure technology

A Shanxi Securities researcher told the Global Times reporter that in the face of overseas tensions, China's imported coal has declined to a certain extent compared with previous years. The varieties with large declines in coal division are power coal and lignite. In addition, during the peak summer, during the summer, there were many high -temperature weather superimposed drought climate, which caused insufficient water storage of water and electricity stations. The water and electricity supply was significantly lower than the level of previous years. In terms of supply, due to expectations for the changes in supply and demand, the government has also introduced more effective supply -increase measures, and the output of major production areas has increased to a certain extent. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coal prices are relatively strong. According to the researcher, my country's economy can still drive energy demand. The future direction of coal and coal power companies is on the one hand to optimize the industrial layout, and on the other hand, the ESG factor layout will be considered, and the latter may bring more financing space to related companies.

Guohai Securities mentioned in the public cause industry on September 13 that the flexibility of thermal power is still a key means for the improvement of power system adjustment. During the "14th Five -Year Plan" period, the scale of the flexibility transformation of coal electrical units in my country was 200 million kilowatts, and as of the end of 2021, it had achieved over 100 million kilowatts. According to the incomplete statistics of Guohai Securities, 12 provinces/municipalities including Henan, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Fujian and other 12 provinces have issued policies to promote the flexibility of thermal power. The policies are mainly required from the aspects of scale, coal consumption, and contribution. Shandong also explicitly pointed out that the peak adjustment capacity is increased according to the flexibility of coal power and configured the scale of new energy.

Regarding the peak adjustment role played by coal power, Liu Pei introduced the "Global Times" reporter: "The peak adjustment performance and flexibility are not the natural attributes of coal power. In recent years, with the continuous increase of renewable energy ratios, the proportion of renewable energy has continued to increase, and the proportion of renewable energy has continued to increase. The role that coal power can be played in peak adjustment is valued, but related technologies are the result of China's large -scale investment in scientific research, so as to enhance the operation capabilities of coal -fired power stations in low load state. The flexibility of coal -fired is in the world's leading position. At the same time, my country has now reduced the level of equipment manufacturing and cost of photovoltaic and wind power to the level of coal power levels internationally. The system is already very advanced, but there will be various problems in the process of developing dynamic development, but it will no longer affect the big development situation. "

He believes that my country has confidence in its own diversified, highly flexible and complementary energy supply system, and it is necessary to make it better and talk internationally internationally.

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