They finally proved that successful pure relying on luck 丨 Funny Nobel Prize

The 32nd first funny Nobel Prize, today's grand lottery! The fruit shell brought the award review and interpretation for the first time.

This article you are reading is an introduction to the research of the Economic Awards.

If you want to see the summary of all the awards this year, please poke here: 2022 Funny Nobel Awards.

Shi Ye, Yunye, life also, is not what I can. Regardless of whether it is today or the ancients, they have issued a question: Is success or talent? Statatologists who have won the funny Nobel Prize in Economics tell you that the answer is to rely on luck.

They have proved the most successful ways that they have never been the most capable person, but the luckiest people.

The harder, the more fortunate? Study said it is not like this

If the harder the hard work, the more luck, the world should not be what it is today.

As we all know, the personal value of individuals shows the Gaussian distribution in the population, and wealth distribution (usually considered a representative of success) usually follows the law. Data show that the wealth owned by the eight richest men in the world is as many as the 3.6 billion people in humans. The gap in these data has been reminding us that hard work is useless. There must be some hidden factors. It works behind the scenes.

After all, some people work more time than the average level, and some people work less time, but no one works more than one billion times more than others.

Positive distribution map ｜ wikipedia

At the same time, there are many studies that can overthrow the harder and more lucky: the same papers, the first scholars who have the first letter of the surname are more likely to get senior lifelong teaching positions; More popular; the surname is more likely to be a leader; the income differences in nearly half of the population in the world can only be explained by their country and state distribution system; As a result -the most important things are brought about by luck.

The conclusion that the researchers come by is that the effect of occasional incidents in life is much greater than people think -but this does not mean that success and hard work have nothing to do, because today when it is rolled up, it is indeed only genius and diligence. People can kill the siege -simply, researchers believe that only talent and efforts are not enough, and you have to be lucky enough to appear in the right place in the right time.

Not good statistics? Then make some dummy

In order to quantify the importance of luck, the researchers designed a model to simulate the success or failure of a group of people in 40 years of working hours.

There are 1,000 villains in this model. They have different degrees of ability (intelligence, skills, etc.). They are randomly distributed in a square world. In each simulation, villains will come into contact with a certain number of lucky events ( Green Circle) and unfortunate incidents (red circles), these incidents moved around the square along the random trajectory. Considering the working life of humans from 20 to 60, the simulation time is 40 years, and the incident acts every 6 months.

Founded World Simulation ｜ Talent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

At the beginning of the simulation, all villains were given the same amount of capital to represent their wealth starting level. The talents of the villain can be fixed, and their capital is affected by the affected time. When the incident moves, there are three different states of villains:

(1) There is no incident to intersect with the villain: This means that nothing happened in the past six months, and the villain has not changed.

(2) A lucky event and the villain are staggered: this means that a lucky event has occurred in the past six months! The wealth of the villain will increase the rate of increasingly proportional to the skill, that is, if the villain is smart enough, he can benefit from the lucky event.

(3) An unfortunate incident has staggered the villain: this means that there have been bad things in the past six months. In this case, the wealth of the villain has decreased accordingly.

After 40 years of simulation, the result proves that: Wisdom and intelligence is true and the degree of success (how much wealth) has nothing to do!

The simulation results show that although the skill points are distributed in Gaussia in the villain, after 40 years of working life, the wealth distribution they accumulated follows the power of the power, that is, 20%of people have 80%of the wealth of wealth of 80%of the wealth. Essence Another result is that people with the most money are not the most talented people, but those who are distributed near Gaussian distribution near Gaussian distribution, that is, ordinary people who are lucky.

At the awards ceremony, Donna Strickland, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, gave a high evaluation of their academic achievements. "I am very successful in academic. I always think that this is because of my writing and star. Thank you for quantifying this. I am not smarter than other colleagues, nor does it work harder than other colleagues, but there is only me in a group of people. I decided to do the research on the pioneer, and then I took the Nobel Prize. "She said," Obviously, you can stand here and take this award, just because you are particularly lucky. "

However, after that, the researchers also warned readers. The results of this study did not mean that people should be captured and waited for luck to come.Increase the probability of success.Author:

Edit: Odette

- END -