The "Mei IV" of "Breaking the Wind" is here!Typhoon "Plum Blossom" may enter Jiangsu in the early morning of the 15th

Typhoon No. 12 "plum blossoms" is "taking the wind and breaking waves" to accelerate approach to the coast of East my country. It will land in the coastal area of ​​Wenling from Zhejiang from the afternoon of the 14th to night. Judging from the current forecast path, the typhoon "Plum Blossom" may continue to move northwest after landing. It may enter Jiangsu in the early morning of the 15th and enter Shandong on the 16th after crossing Jiangsu.

Starting from the night of the 13th, Jiangsu entered the core period of the influence of wind and rain. From the night of the 13th to the day of the day, due to the peripheral of the typhoon "plum blossom", there will be large rainstorms in the eastern part of Jiangsu Province, and heavy rain in some areas; the wind is gradually increasing, and the on-land wind power is 6-8; Essence From the night of the 14th to the 15th, due to the influence of the typhoon "plum blossom" on the body, major parts of Jiangsu Province will occur to heavy rains, including heavy rain in some areas in the eastern parts; on land winds: 8-10 in the eastern region, 10-12 levels in the southeast, level 10-12, levels in the southeast. Levels 6 to 8 in other areas; 11-14 to 14 to 14 in the coastal waters of the Yangtze River Estuary, Nantong, and Yancheng, and about 11 levels of the coastal waters of Lianyungang.

【Plum Blossom Impact】

"Plum Blossom" has not yet arrived, and the "inverted slot" has brought strong wind and rain to Jiangsu

The Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory issued a typhoon yellow warning signal at 15:50 on September 13: Affected by Typhoon Plum Blossom, No. 12 this year, it is expected to be from the evening of the 14th to the 15th to the 15th. The average wind of 8 or above the southern and southern parts of Yangzhou will appear. The average wind level 8 gusts are above 10 or more. Nanjing, northern Yancheng, northern Taizhou, northern Yangzhou, Huai'an, Suqian, Lianyungang, and Xuzhou will have a large wind of level 6 gust 8.

The Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory issued a large wind orange warning signal at the sea area at 15:56 on September 13: It is expected that the Grade 11-12 gusts will appear in the Nantong Sea District and the southern part of Yancheng on the evening of the 14th to the 15th. Level 11 gusts. The Provincial Meteorological Bureau reminds to take precautions.

Typhoon "ontology" has not yet arrived, the influence of the "plum blossom" has begun, and heavy rainfall appears in the Yangtze River Delta from the 12th to 13th.

What is a "inverted slot"? "Plum Blossoms" is a circular system of adverse clockwise. The east wind on the north side of the center continues to roll the ocean warm and humid air to the land. At the same time, due to the enhancement of the high -pressure west extension of the subtropical high pressure on the east side, the water vapor is also very abundant. The cold and cold air encountered the clouds to cause rain. For example, Suzhou and Nantong in Jiangsu Province generally appeared to heavy rain from the night of the 12th to the 13th, and local heavy rain to heavy rain.

【Plum Blossom Three Questions】

One question: When did "plum blossoms" go to Jiangsu, how much influence of Jiangsu in the wind and rain?

Experts from Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory introduced that "plum blossoms" are expected to move north to northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will be strengthened. Log in to the above -mentioned coastal areas from the afternoon to the night (typhoon or strong typhoon level, 38 ~ 45 meters/s, level 13 ~ 14); after landing, "plum blossoms" will continue to move through Jiangsu in the northwest (possibly in the early morning of the 15th 15th, 15th (possibly on the early morning of the 15th on the 15th Entering Jiangsu), the intensity gradually weakened.

On September 13th to 14th, it was affected by the periphery of the "plum blossoms" during the day. There will be medium to heavy rain in the eastern part of the Huaihe River in Jiangsu. Among them, some areas in the southeast of the southeast are heavy to heavy rain and local heavy rain. From the night of the 14th to the 15th, due to the "plum blossom" ontology, Jiangsu will have wind and rain from south to north. In most areas, it will be as heavy as heavy rain and local heavy rain. Cumulative rainfall: 70 ~ 150 mm in most areas, local 200 ~ 250 mm, and individual sites may exceed 300 mm. The cumulative rainfall of the Taihu Basin is about 150 to 200 mm.

It is expected to be on land winds: 8-10 in the eastern region, level 10-12 in the southeast, and 6 to 8 in other regions; Sea Area: Yangtze River Estuary and Nantong and Yancheng coastal seas are 11-14, and Lianyungang's coastal seas are about 11 levels.

The Nanjing Meteorological Observatory also released an important weather report on the 13th: Affected by the "plum blossoms", it is expected that Nanjing will have obvious wind and rainy weather. From the 13th to 14th, it will be rainy from the 14th from the 14th day of heavy rain to heavy rain, and the clouds will turn cloudy on the 16th. From the 13th to 14th, the day gradually increased to level 4 to 6 gusts, and the 14th to the 15th to the 15th to the 15th to 8th gust 9th, and weakened to level 4 to 5 on the 16th. However, the impact of typhoons is beneficial. Experts from the Provincial Meteorological Observatory said that the strong precipitation brought by the typhoon "plum blossoms" will have a useful impact on the water level of Jiangsu Province, water storage, and relief of drought in reservoir.

Second question: What are the characteristics of "plum blossoms"?

Small power and great power, affecting 12 provinces and cities

It can be seen from the satellite cloud map that although the "plum blossom" is not large, the typhoon eyes are clear, the structure is symmetrical, and the cloud system is close and thick. According to Wang Weiyue, a meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, the typhoon "plum blossoms" have a strong strength. It has the characteristics of long and rainy influence, large influence scope, and high tide superimposed with astronomical tide.

The wind and rain brought by the typhoon "plum blossom" is far more than Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. At present, the "plum blossom" is a strong typhoon level. When close to land, the strength will also be strengthened, and it may penetrate in the inland. Affected by the combination of the inverted slot and cold air on the north side of the typhoon, the wind and rain will affect Taiwan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shanghai, and Shanghai. 12 provinces and cities including Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Henan (Eastern Bureau), Liaoning, Jilin, and other 12 provinces and cities have not even ruled out that the rainfall in northern Jiangsu and Shandong is more likely to be near the landing point.

Three questions: Will "Mei Four" staged "plum blossoms"?

Yesterday,@: The typhoon names are all used in circular. This year's typhoon "plum blossom" is strictly "Mei IV". "Mei One" was born in the winter of 2004, and there was nothing to do. "Mei III" is the first typhoon in 2017, and it is not born. The most powerful thing is the "Mei II" in 2011, which also reached the intensity of super typhoons. It also pointed out that the East China region in my country was also nicknamed "Mei Chaofeng".

At that time, the sea was also very lively. Three dances were danced, so the prediction of the path of "plum blossoms" caused the forecasters to lose a lot of hair and finally got out of the path of "plum blossoms". Essence

This year's typhoon "Plum Blossom" is also focusing on East China. The chance of landing this time is very high. Take preparations for defense early! According to@, "Plum Blossoms" and "Miao Bai" in 2022 are very similar to the "plum blossoms" and "Miao Bai" in 2011, and they were "re -engraved" that year.

【About Autumn Typhoon】

The high proportion of super typhoons is difficult to predict the "ruthless character"

In September of this year, the three autumn typhoons of "Xuan Lannuo", "Plum Blossom" and "Miao Bai" were generated one after another. In the eyes of many people, summer is the most active and most vulnerable season for typhoons. In fact, the power and influence of autumn typhoons cannot be underestimated. @The meteorological data from 1949 to 2020 found that the autumn typhoon "ruthless characters" were more. Typhoon autumn is not only prominent, but also often strangely changing on the path, which is also related to the weather system that affects the autumn typhoon.

Typhoon in September is still active "super typhoon" accounts for high proportion

Generally, we call the typhoon generated from June to August as "Typhoon Summer", and the typhoon generated from September to November is called "Typhoon Autumn". Statistics show that in the past 72 years, the number of typhoons has been generated in summer, which is the most active season of typhoons, and 821 typhoons have been generated in autumn, second only to summer.

Although the number of typhoons and login in summer is the largest of the year, big data of meteorological shows that autumn typhoons are more likely to produce "ruthless characters". From 1949 to 2020, the typhoon generated in autumn accounted for 27.9%, which was far higher than 18%in summer.

Judging from the intensity of typhoons for the first time, the autumn typhoon is significantly higher than that of the summer. In summer, typhoons are mostly landed in our country at the level of tropical storms or strong tropical storms, reaching only 14.9%to reach the level of strong typhoons. In the fall, this ratio is 22.4%, which is significantly higher than summer.

"Autumn Typhoon" encounters cold air, the disaster affects upgrading

Historically, many autumn typhoons have caused serious impacts on our country. Recently, Typhoon Morandi, No. 14, 2016. After landing in Xiamen, it advanced to the northwest direction. Rainstorm became a disaster.

Why is the autumn typhoon destructive? China Weather Network Meteorological Analyst Shi Yan introduced that from the beginning of the spring equinox, the direct sunlight movement moved from the equator to the north, and heated the northern hemisphere tropical ocean. Facial typhoon generation and energy enhancement. At the same time, from the end of August to the beginning of September, the cold air began to be active, increasing the pressure gradient, and the wind speed near the typhoon center increased, which was also conducive to the enhancement of typhoon intensity. In addition, due to the gradual increase in autumn air, "autumn typhoon+cold air" is a terrible combination. The two teamed up often stimulate violent precipitation, which leads to greater disasters.

Related news: The most typhoon in Jiangsu

Favorite August: Experts from the Provincial Meteorological Observatory introduced that the typhoon affecting Jiangsu was mainly concentrated in June-October, of which July-September was a peak period. There were 53 in July, 85 in August, and 56 in September. The average of about 3.2 per year.

The most pile: 8 typhoons affecting Jiangsu in 2018; the earliest to: May 18, 2006, the latest to November 25, 1952; November 25, 1952; November 25, 1952; November 25, 1952; November 25, 1952; November 25, 1952;

The most "grinding": In 2021, "Fireworks" stayed in Jiangsu for about 37 hours. In order to record the longest time since the record, the average rainfall of the province was 220.9 mm, which was the most severe rainfall since the record.

Yangtze Evening News/Zi Niu Journalist Yu Dandan Video Chen King Kong

Edit: Qin Xiaoyi

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