John Dul: Carbon neutralization and OKR, the goal is not difficult to achieve

Author:CITIC Publishing Time:2022.09.13

A large number of studies have shown that if the temperature of the earth rises by 4 ° C, the global economy will be destroyed, especially the economy of the southern hemisphere. The scale of this disaster will far exceed the 2008 financial crisis and will continue for a long time. Humans will enter a permanent climate depression. But frankly, such warnings are unlikely to let us embark on the road of saving the earth. The predictions done after 80 years are too far away for the human brain. The temperature rises a few degrees to sound harmless instead of ominous sign. At the same time, the biggest obstacle is that if there is no roadmap, people always refuse to make changes. Real changes require a clear and realistic plan.

So, how can we prevent climate crisis from evolving into climate disaster? What is a targeted, operable, surveyable plan, so that we can truly avoid this imminent disaster?

John Dul introduced OKR in his first book "This is OKR", that is, how the goals and key results can promote the success of various organizations, from Google to Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, from Small startups to the Giants of Fortune 500. Duel believes that they can also help us respond to climate crisis.

"Speed and scale" plan

OKR represents goals and key results. What they target is the two key aspects of any goal worth achieving, namely "what" and "how". Objective (o) is what you work hard to achieve. The key results (KR) tell us how "how" these goals are achieved, and they are usually decomposed into a thinner granular goal.

OKR is not the sum of all tasks. Instead, they focus on the most important things, that is, several basic action steps in the efforts of achieving specific goals. They enable us to track our progress. Its design concept is far -sighted and strive to achieve ambitious but still achieve the goal.

In solving environmental problems, net zero emissions are our bottom line. "Jing" means that it is impossible to achieve zero emissions only by reducing emissions. We also need to rely on nature and technology to eliminate and store unavoidable emissions. But it should be clear that we cannot continue to burn fossil fuel with the pretext of cleaning atmosphere in the future. The main task we face is to reduce emissions.

Our primary OKR is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and at the same time, the key milestone is achieved by half of the emission reduction in 2030. Faced with such a huge challenge, goals and key results will keep us awake and pragmatic. These goals and key results can not only avoid unhealthy imaginations, but also allow us to avoid the so -called "shiny objects" -the interference that seemingly brilliant but without competitiveness in cost or scale. By being responsible for our quantitative goals, they will not easily rely on slim hope. We will focus on the largest and most effective opportunities, because those opportunities will allow us to achieve the goal of net zero emissions on time.

This goal is in line with the calculation results of the intergovernmental climate change special committee, the United Nations Environmental Planning Department and the Paris Agreement. These three institutions have calculated the emission levels of 1.5 ° C, 1.8 ° C, and 2 ° C compared with the temperature level before industrialization. In order to simplify the goals, the key results we formulate are in line with the most ambitious goals, that is, the temperature increase does not exceed 1.5 ° C.

This is our plan: the "speed and scale plan" of climate crisis. These six measures support our primary goals, that is, to achieve net zero emissions than 2050, thereby solving the climate crisis.

Speed and scale plan "combustion agent"

Expand the scale of battery production while reducing costs

If all the new cars (6,000 million vehicles) sold are electric vehicles, 10,000 GWH (GWH) batteries will be required. Our battery production today can only meet a small part of the needs, so we also need another stored power of more than 10,000 Gavac. The world will be extremely hungry for batteries, and it is difficult to reach the required scale. In order to increase production by several orders of magnitude, we need to innovate in materials and manufacturing.

For decades, scientists and engineers have persistently worked hard to make progress in energy storage. Since Alexandro Volter created the first battery 11 in 1800, people have been committed to creating better batteries. So far, quantum landscape companies have created solid -lithium metal batteries with larger density, lower costs and safer costs.

However, in order to promote the transition of developing countries to electric vehicles, we also need a battery with higher density and lower costs. Quantum landscape is building a production line to produce sufficient solid -state batteries and conduct field testing on the car. If the company reaches its cost and density target (and defeats market competitors), it may eliminate the green premium of electric vehicles in India or Africa and other places, and the cost of new gasoline cars in those places is less than half of the United States.

However, even if all parties work, the battery industry will still face the inherent difficult problems such as material shortage and ore mining. A cobalt, which accounts for 20% of lithium ion cathode materials, is facing a large problem -60% of the world's cobalt raw materials come from the turbulent Congo Democratic Republic. The country is full of landmines, which is very dangerous, and there is a bad trace of forced children's labor.

As the world's demand for battery power continues to grow, we need to strengthen the review of the supply chain to ensure that the materials are responsible in a responsible manner. In addition to improving energy density, we also need to expand the scale of practitioners, manufacturing factories and materials in the battery industry, so that it far exceeds the current level. The new version of the cathode chemical materials will reduce the cobalt content by half. The new battery technology may also completely remove cobalt, which will solve a problem. In the long run, a large -scale battery industry can maintain operations by recycling waste batteries used in electric vehicles and power grids.

We need battery manufacturers (and recychers) to achieve more breakthroughs to meet the world's demand for cheaper and more environmentally friendly energy storage. There is sufficient space for many companies in this field.

Reduce the cost of zero -emission base load

Focus on the cost of transporting energy to the grid. To replace coal and natural gas, zero -emission energy must be stable and reliable. Clean energy can come from solar energy, wind energy or hydropower, as large as the earth, to atom. The current challenge is to provide stable electricity under normal circumstances, while increasing production to meet the peak of demand during winter storms or summer heat waves. Any new technologies must have a cheaper cost than fossil fuel than fossils.

Under the extreme situation of the rise in electricity demand, the demand for strong energy storage systems and more reliable power systems can be mostly reliable to make solar energy and wind energy more reliable? How to rely on these zero emissions solutions at a critical juncture? The answer depends on a new method that can store energy for a longer time.

Energy storage technology is defined by its charging and discharge cycle. Short -term energy storage for mobile phones, laptops, cars and houses is usually calculated in daily. The power grid captures energy during the period of excess power, stores it, and then distributes it during the peak demand period. For short -cycle energy storage demand, the current popularity and economic choice are lithium ion batteries.

The long -term energy required for the power grid must be able to store economic stored for several weeks or months, which makes it too expensive to use the battery. For long -term energy storage, we need more efficient alternatives, such as pumping storage power relying on water gravity. However, although pumping storage power stations are very suitable for long -term energy storage, its construction cost is very high and cannot be in flat ground. Open.

A startup named Energy Vault uses another way to use gravity to lift the 35 -ton composite material block,

Put down and stack it to store and release energy. A company named Malta stores energy as heat in large cans with high temperature melt salt. Energy storage manufacturers HighView Power and Hydrostor use excess energy to store compressed air, and then release compressed air power generation. Energy company Bloom Energy uses the green hydrogen production and stored green hydrogen to power the fuel cell. In addition, Form Energy and other companies also use new chemical reaction energy storage.

Nuclear energy is an indispensable part of our power structure today and the future. It is well known that if a nuclear power plant fails, the consequences may be devastating, but as Bill Gates pointed out, "This is the only carbon -free energy that can be reliable to provide electricity in the night. Anyone on the planet has been proven to be able to run on a large scale. " Therefore, for the huge power grid we need to develop, nuclear energy is an indispensable part

In order to ensure the safety of the reactor, the future development direction is to design a new type of advanced reactor, which is called the fourth -generation reactor in the industry. At present, more than 50 laboratories or startups around the world are moving along this road to promote the progress of nuclear power in various aspects such as security, sustainability, efficiency and cost.

Reduce carbon neutralization cost

Carbon neutralized fuels are the industries that may not be fully electrified, such as aviation and freight industry, providing a way to dessert. Transportation that cannot be driven by battery or hydrogen can be driven by carbon neutral fuel. The challenge facing this scheme is to find the cost of the cost that is equivalent to today's fossil fuels and the instant available replacement fuel.

Biofuels can be manufactured with plants, crops, algae, vegetable oil, oil and fat. We can use the industrial process to transform these biomass resources into ethanol, diesel and aviation fuel. The emissions produced during biofuels can be offset by the atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbed by biomass. Of course, emissions are not 100%offset. Depending on the process and its required fossil fuel energy, the emission reduction will be 30%to 80%.

However, a large amount of biofuels are used, and the risk of competing with grain crops or forest protection is also increasing. Therefore, the road leading to net zero emissions requires a synthetic fuel from completely discharged energy, and this energy will not compete with land or food. A very promising method is to use solar or wind energy to combine hydrogen in water with carbon dioxide extracted from the atmosphere. Because these fuel emissions will not be more carbon dioxide than carbon dioxide when they produce them, they will be carbon neutral.

People have reason to question all this that sounds perfect and incredible. Carbon neutral fuel is currently not feasible in economical. To achieve economical, zero -emission energy used to make fuel must be very cheap, or the cost of fossil fuels with carbon prices need to be greatly increased. What is good news? Both development directions are very promising. If entrepreneurs who develop synthetic fuels can get financial support, their successful conditions may soon mature. Reduce carbon clearance cost

The economy that aims to increase carbon dioxide directly from the air and sealed it has not yet achieved scale. We also need to find a place to store all carbon dioxide, which is really difficult. The scale of expanding carbon clearance is the cornerstone of our net zero emissions by 2050. As Bill Gates pointed out, we have not yet controlled the cost of carbon dioxide directly from the air to less than $ 100 per ton. "If someone can do this at a price of $ 50 per ton, it will be a great achievement. If the price can be reduced to $ 25, it will be the biggest contribution to the problem of climate change. one."

A controversial concept is to turn the solar light by emitting sulfur dioxide particles in the atmosphere. If it succeeds, it can slow down the earth's warming, slow down or even prevent the melting of the polar ice cover. But at the same time, it may also cause extremely cold weather, cause sour rain, destroy food supply, and cause people to die from hunger and disease.

Maybe there is a more secure tool in the world than sulfur lime particles? No one can know everything. Al -Gore believes that once the earth engineering surpasses the scope of carbon clearance, it is morally a wrong choice, because its impact is unpredictable, and a safer and more reliable choice remains to be tried. Alm should point out that Earth engineering is not so much a ambitious plan, it is better to be a Faust -style transaction with nature.

"Speed and scale: Carbon neutral OKR Action Guide"

John Duer

CITIC Publishing Group

August 2022

Introduction: In 2006, in a crucial dinner discussion, when John Duer's 15 -year -old daughter filed a challenge to the climate crisis, he was speechless. Since then, the author has been committed to finding a way to reverse the global warming trend.

During the 15 years of concern to the environmental crisis, the author deeply felt that it was urgent to solve the current crisis, and humans had no time to try and error and buffer. Therefore, he joined forces with scientists, decision makers, social activists, business leaders and charity. This effective tool has formulated a clear and can be followed by net zero emissions in 2050.

This book is divided into two parts. The first part starts with six large areas that can reduce the climate crisis, including transportation, power, agriculture, natural protection, industrial, and carbon clearance. Objectives and methods that need to be achieved at each stage. The second part explores issues, technology and investment related to clean energy, carbon neutralization and economics. Each goal in each chapter is equipped with a set of key results to facilitate the progress of progress in these fields to show how to do it, and whether to speed up the pace or correct the direction.

This is a set of frosted carbon neutralization solutions. It is also a guide to find the "zero carbon" economic new air outlet from the perspective of investors. It is also an effective reference for the government and entrepreneurs on how companies transform under the goal of "dual carbon".

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