The market value of three months has evaporated 230 billion!BYD urgently needs "new stories"?

Since June, a lot of investors behind BYD have become increasingly "anxious".

On the one hand, BYD, the leader of the new energy vehicle industry, is still rising today. According to the latest data, in August this year, BYD's vehicle sales totaling 174,900 units, a significant increase of 184.9%year -on -year; as of August this year, BYD's cumulative sales of this year had reached 974,300, a significant increase of 273.6%year -on -year increased by 273.6% The situation is very good. On the other hand, although the sales volume continued to rise, BYD has been greatly reduced by the "stock god" Buffett.

In the secondary market, since June this year, BYD's stock price has also continued to fall. As of the closing of September 9, BYD's stock price closed at 279.7 yuan/share, compared with the highest point on June 13th 358.76 yuan/share, just three months ago, BYD's stock price has fallen by more than 20 % to 20 % The market value has evaporated more than 230 billion.

As the absolute "handle" in the current domestic new energy vehicle industry, BYD's sales and performance naturally do not need too much concern; however, with the gradual subscription of the popularity of new energy vehicles in the near future, although the fundamentals are still stable, investors are investors, but investors The differences in "Di Wang" have also increased significantly, and even Buffett Buffett began to reduce its holdings.

Faced with this "internal and external entanglement" situation, where will BYD eventually go? Can you find a new story and continue to maintain the growth rate of your "unique"?

"Stock god" Buffett reduced holdings

After 14 years of firm holding, "stock god" Buffett finally began to reduce its holdings over BYD.

On August 30, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed the document that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold 1.33 million BYD's H shares on August 24, with an average transaction price of 277.1016 Hong Kong dollars/share. , Buffett's reduction of HK $ 369 million.

However, Buffett's reduction is estimated to end soon.

In the semi -annual report, BYD disclosed the shareholders' shareholding. As of the first half of the year, the number of shares held by Berkshire Hathaway was 225 million shares; but by August 24, Berkshire Hathaway held The number of shares has fallen to 219 million shares, and the difference between the two has exceeded 6 million shares before and after, which also means that in July and August, Berkshire Hathaway's actual cumulative reduction of holdings is far away. Far higher than 1.33 million shares.

The origin of the "stock god" Buffett and BYD can be traced back to 2008 14 years ago.

At that time, BYD had just entered the automotive industry for 5 years, and the momentum of development was not good, but Buffett chose to invest in Hong Kong stocks at a price of 8 Hong Kong dollars per share, about $ 1 This incident caused heated discussion at that time, and BYD's stock price of Buffett's shareholding label also rose sharply, but then fell again.

Fourteen years later, with BYD's technology became more and more mature, coupled with the arrival of new energy vehicles, BYD's stock price began to usher in a sharp rise. On June 28, BYD H -shares hit the highest price of 333 Hong Kong dollars/share. If calculated by this, Buffett's investment in BYD has more than 40 times, and earning more than 70 billion Hong Kong dollars.

It is also at this "peak moment" that Buffett chose to reduce its holdings for BYD.

From the perspective of investment, after having such huge profits, Buffett's reduction in holdings is actually understandable, but this has caused investors' concerns about BYD -Is BYD's stock price too high? After the disclosure of the reduction of the holdings, BYD's stock price also ushered in a large callback. BYD's A shares of the A shares fell more than 20 % in just three months, and the market value evaporated 230 billion yuan.

However, it is worth mentioning that although Buffett has reduced its holdings over BYD, many domestic institutions are still optimistic about BYD.

From the perspective of financial reports, as of the first half of this year, BYD's institutions held up to 1,541, which increased by 1060 compared with the 481 in the first quarter. Compared with the number of shares in the first quarter, the number of shares of 350 million shares and a shareholding ratio of 30.31%increased significantly.

Obviously, from the perspective of institutional operations, big funds are also full of differences in BYD.

The hidden dangers behind sales increase

Although it encountered the reduction of the "stock god", from the data point of view, BYD can still fight.

According to sales data disclosed in BYD, BYD's vehicle sales in August this year were as high as 174,900 units, a significant increase of 184.9%year -on -year, and once again reached a record high of a single monthly sales. In the first eight months of this year, BYD's cumulative sales had reached 983,000 units, close to 1 million units, an increase of 164.03%year -on -year.

Compared with the entire industry, the number of retail markets in the passenger car market in August was 1.871 million units, an increase of 2.9%month -on -month, an increase of 28.9%year -on -year. The speed is far exceeding the industry average.

Driven by the increase in sales, BYD also surrendered a good interim. According to the financial report data, BYD achieved a total revenue of 150.607 billion in the first half of this year, an increase of 65.71%year -on -year; net profit was 3.595 billion, an increase of 206.35%year -on -year, and revenue and net profit increased significantly.

However, behind the increase in sales and performance, BYD is not without hidden dangers.

Due to the surge in sales, BYD's production capacity is obviously insufficient, which has also led to its rapid expansion in a short time.

According to media statistics, before 2019, BYD only has three manufacturing factories in Shenzhen, Xi'an and Changsha. It was not until April 2019 that BYD signed a fourth vehicle base in Changzhou; but since 2021, since 2021, With the surge in sales, BYD began to accelerate the pace significantly. It actively expands production capacity across the country, including projects under construction. At present, BYD already has 8 car manufacturers.

Active expansion of production capacity naturally has a positive side, but all the eight -car manufacturers of Jobyi are put into use. According to the calculation of full production, the production capacity is likely to reach 3 million units/year, and the total sales of domestic new energy vehicles last year also It is only 3.52 million units. Obviously, once the new energy vehicle market no longer develops rapidly, BYD will face the situation of overcapacity.

In addition, with BYD's blade batteries, BYD also expands radically in the battery field.

According to media reports, BYD's Fudi Battery, newly established in 2021, will be newly established in Wuwei, Yancheng, Jinan, Shaoxing and other branches. The capacity planning has reached an amazing 300GWh, and the total installed capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries in 2021 is 300GWH. The production capacity of Fudi batteries has been comparable to the global installed capacity in 2021.

Obviously, in order to cope with the surging sales, BYD is expanding; but the excessive expansion has also laid hidden dangers for its future. Once the growth momentum of new energy vehicles slows down, BYD will face serious overcapacity problems.

After climbing the industry leader, BYD urgently need "new story"

In addition to the potential risks of overcapacity, the lack of "new stories" is also a major problem facing BYD.

From the perspective of sales, BYD has become an absolute "handle" in the field of domestic automobiles. Whether it is new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli" or old car companies such as Geely and Great Wall Looking at, in the first half of 2022, BYD's new energy vehicles sold 641,400 units, surpassing Tesla's 565,000 units, and reached the top of the world.

However, with the top half of the world's first half of the world, BYD's imagination has disappeared, and this may also be one of the important reasons for its stock price since June.

Of course, BYD also knows the risks behind this. After the successful success of the dynasty, BYD began to launch a new series -Ocean.com, and continuously launched new products, such as dolphins, seals, warships 05 and even warship series. Hope By launching a new product line to expand your influence and tell a new story.

In addition, BYD has also accelerated the footsteps of foreign investment. According to Tianyan Checker data, since BYD has been investing for the first time in 2013, a total of 38 companies have undergone foreign investment, covering lithium battery materials, carbon materials, polymer materials, solar batteries, and solar batteries. Minerals, chips, photoelectric semiconductors, artificial intelligence, industrial software, digital optical equipment and other industries.

Among these 38 companies' foreign investment, less than a year and a half from 2021 to April 2022, as high as 27, accounting for over 70 % of the total number of investment in the company. "The urgency.

However, from the current point of view, BYD’s "new story" has not yet been found. Although it has reached the global global sales champion, BYD is more cost -effective, and in the intelligent field, it is still compared with the head car company Tesla. There is a lot of distance.

From the former battery faucet to the new energy vehicle leader today, it is undeniable that BYD has been successful; but after it has reached the summit, BYD wants to continue to move forward, it needs more "new stories", and this is also BYD station. The test of the trillion market value.

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