What enlightenment has it given us in this round of electricity?

Since August, due to the influence of high temperature and harsh weather, the temperature in most parts of the southern part of my country refresh historical records. In order to cope with extreme high temperature weather, the emergency plan for high -temperature electricity limits in some areas of the Yangtze River Basin in my country: On August 19, some areas of Wuhan began to limit electricity; on August 20, Chengdu limited power; on August 21, Sichuan launched emergency events and energy energy. Supply guarantee first -level emergency response. On the same day, Shanghai suspended the opening of the Bund of Huangpu River, North Bund, and Landscape Lighting (including the media curtain wall).

For a while, the term "pulling the gate" on the top of major platforms was once again.

High temperature drought is the main reason for this round of electricity limit

Looking back at the multiple "electricity limit" measures since 2000, a total of 7 power restriction measures last for a long time, and the scope of influence is large. Year, 2012 and 2021. Judging from the main reasons of the above 7 times, it is nothing more than three factors: severe weather, upward coal prices, and energy consumption policies. In recent years, the power limit measures are related to the severe high temperature and severe weather.

The power restriction measured by Sichuan as a representative is essentially different from the reasons for power restrictions in 2021. The main reason for the power limit in 2021 is that my country's energy -consuming dual -control policy stimulates the soaring coal prices and the losses of thermal power generation enterprises with coal as the main raw material leads to the low production enthusiasm. Extremely high -temperature weather leads to the surge in power demand (especially air -conditioning power calls) of the people's production and life. At the same time, the drought weather in some areas has caused hydropower to decline, and the mismatch of power supply and demand for power supply causes power limit.

In the past August, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued high -temperature red warning for more than 10 consecutive days. Most of the southern parts of my country are at high temperatures of 35 ° C to 39 ° C. The local area even appears extreme weather above 40 ° C or even 45 ° C. The power consumption continues to peak. At the same time, Sichuan, which is used as a large province in China, should have used the high water level brought by the summer precipitation to enter the peak period of power generation, but because the Yangtze River precipitation in the flood season drops to the minimum value of the same period since 1961, the power generation has caused power generation. Before previous years. Ultra -high temperature and low precipitation have led to the continued lower water level in the Yangtze River. High -temperature disasters and droughts parallel not only caused the affected area of ​​cultivated land in the provinces of the Yangtze River more than 10 million acres, but also made the traditional power output of Sichuan power production less than expected, and local supply was tight.

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This round of electricity restriction reflects that my country's power infrastructure planning is not reasonable

Sichuan Province is one of the most abundant hydropower resources in China. The reason for the resource endowment determines that the power structure of Sichuan Province is mainly hydropower. At the same time, as a national hydropower base, Sichuan is an important delivery end of my country's "Western Power East", and its power output has been more than 130 billion kilowatt -hours for many years. Relevant statistics show that as of the end of June 2022, the overall power generation of Sichuan Province, hydropower, firepower, wind energy, and solar power generation accounted for 89.28%, 8.79%, 1.47%, and 0.46%of the overall power generation of Sichuan Province, respectively. From the perspective of energy structure, Sichuan's electricity highly depends on hydropower. Under the requirements of dual -control policies, hydropower, as a clean energy period from July to September 2021, contributed an average of 89.1 in Sichuan Province 89.1 %Of the source of electricity. From this point of view, hydropower is self -evident to Sichuan Province.

Since the summer of this year, the extremely high temperature and rainy weather in the Yangtze River Basin has caused a lot of power supply in Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and other areas due to the peak power supply, and the power supply demand for Sichuan has increased. At the same time, the amount of precipitation in the Sichuan domain decreased sharply. In July, the traffic in the warehouse was severe compared with the same period of previous years, and even decreased by 14%from June. The dry precipitation had great restrictions on hydropower, and the output of hydropower was insufficient. At the same time, most small hydropower stations in Sichuan Province are small water and electricity with no energy -regulating capacity. The decline in the water level of the river has reduced the amount of water inlet, resulting in a significant decline in the power generation of small hydropower stations. The peak of electricity in high temperature weather. Under the climate catalyst of extreme high temperature and rain, Sichuan's power gap problem is prominent. At the same time, when Sichuan's power output is difficult to guarantee, the problem of power shortage of electricity and regions along the line is naturally presented.

The National Energy Administration has successively held a special area for key areas to welcomes peak summer power insurance supply, deploying the power guarantee work, and urging coal production areas and coal enterprises to complete the task of increasing production and confession to ensure the supply of electrical coal supply in key areas and key power plants. Strengthen the unstoppable and hard -stop supervision of the crew, so as to be stable and full. Give full play to the advantages of large power grids and strengthen cross -regional and cross -regional power mutual doses. Optimize the management and order of power demand -side management and orderly electricity use to ensure electricity usage in key areas such as people's livelihood, public, and resolutely prevent the phenomenon of power limit. In addition, the State Grid also coordinates the provincial and cities to help Sichuan to ensure the supply of electricity.

Therefore, due to the weather, the insufficient power supply reflects that my country has insufficient in the planning and design of power infrastructure in power infrastructure, and has not fully considered the plan for response under extreme circumstances. You must learn from experience.

This time, electricity restrictions may be pushed to increase the price of some industry products

Since 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly emphasized the national coal and energy production and supply, and raised the coal output index from 4. billion tons to 4.3 billion tons this year. At the same time, after the power limit in Sichuan in August, the power supply was actively coordinated. At present, coal prices are relatively stable, and the power production of thermal power enterprises is stable. From the perspective of overall influence, the power limit has not caused great damage to related facilities. Therefore, the overall estimation will not have much impact on the economic growth of our country in the second half of the year. With the end of the peak period of the Sichuan tradition and the emergency recovery of the power supply of the downstream local area, the overall impact will gradually fade. Since Sichuan is an important production base for lithium carbonate, silicon, silicon, energy chemical, phosphorus chemical, semiconductor materials, according to data from relevant institutions, this round of electricity is expected to affect the output of lithium carbonate 1100 tons and lithium lithium hydroxide output by 1,700 tons The output of ternary materials, 300 tons of graphite production, and 12,000 tons of metal silicon output. At the same time, this round of electricity limit also affects the short -term supply of phosphorus chemical products, semiconductor components, integrated circuits and other products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery pieces, titanium pink powder, grass glyphosate, etc., which has a certain impact on the upstream and downstream of the relevant industrial chain. Push the price of some industries and local market products. But at present, the scope of influence is mainly concentrated in Sichuan Province, which is smaller than the previous scope of impact.

For the steel industry, the impact of this power limit is less. Relevant statistics show that in 2021, the cumulative production of crude steel in Sichuan Province was 27.879 million tons, accounting for 2.7%of the national crude steel output that year. At the same time, power limit mainly affects the production of electric furnace steel. Due to the weakness of the steel market in August, the operating rate of electric furnace steel enterprises was only about 40%. Therefore, the impact of limiting electricity on the production of crude steel in my country is small. However, it is necessary to pay attention to: Due to the impact of electricity limit, the demand for coal will increase. In addition, the traditional coal storage season in the northern tradition will come, and the price of coal will be relatively strong, which will lead to high operation of coking coal. It can be inferred that the price of coke in the later period is difficult to settle down, or the cost of pushing steel production will further affect the profit level of the steel industry.

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This time the power limit reflects the pain of the high -quality development of my country's economy

From the comparison of old and new energy sources, wind power and hydropower are affected by the climate, and the intermittent and volatility of photovoltaic power generation will put pressure on peak adjustment and affect the stability of the power grid. Therefore, the limitations of new energy power generation such as "scenery and hydropower" determine that thermal power generation will continue to play the role of stabilizers in the future of my country's economic development for a long time. However, as the national "double carbon" goal has set up "ceiling" for coal power installed capacity, and at the power consumption end, the volatility of electricity consumption in my country will increase year by year. Exist in time. Therefore, in the future, when extreme weather may be frequent, it is still difficult to foresee whether there will be a large range of electricity restrictions in the future, and there is still a certain probability of regional and seasonal electrical shortage.

It can also be seen from this power restriction that coal, as the main source of my country's traditional energy supply, will also play an absolute pillar role in the future. The optimization and adjustment of my country's energy supply structure is by no means an overnight thing. On the road of the "double carbon" target and the clean development of the coal industry, there is still a long way to go in my country, and many potential problems need to be carefully considered and solve carefully, and there must be no psychological expectations for one night.

Looking back at the process of the infrastructure of energy network infrastructure in my country in the past 10 years, during the "Twelfth Five -Year Plan" period, my country ’s electricity consumption increased by 1493.4 billion yuan, and the annual average electricity increase was 6.3%. Electricity increased by 1817.7 billion kWh, with an average annual growth rate of 5.7%. However, at this stage, the rise of my country's clean energy, such as wind power, hydropower, nuclear power, etc., led to the sluggish hours of new coal power generation hours in my country, and coal power hours were lowered. This situation is misunderstood as "excess power" in my country (traditional concept judgment believes that coal power can be considered as power over 4,000 hours), which will affect investment decisions and project construction of incremental coal power. From this point of view, when the overall energy planning of my country is undergoing the role of new energy on improving my country's energy supply structure, it ignores the position of coal power in my country's energy structure, and ignores the power complementarity of electricity under extreme circumstances. Network construction. Therefore, once extreme situations occur, it is difficult to deal with it. From the absolute proportion of more than 60%of coal power in my country, it can be summarized that coal power has an absolute support position in my country's energy guarantee. If the strategy of my country's energy supply is not adjusted in a timely manner, the number of coal -to -electricity machines is appropriately increased to ensure the proportion of coal power supply, and according to the authoritative market research data, my country's electric load gap may exceed 100 million kilowatts in 2025. In terms of the overall strategy of energy supply, my country must not be short -sighted. It must respect the objective laws, based on economic development and the actual situation of people's livelihood, focusing on the long -term economic development needs of the future.

At the same time, from a global perspective, due to extreme climate or emergency geopolitical incidents, major world economies face the problem of insufficient energy supply. In February 2021, the United States suffered a historic cold wave, and the fan and gas units could not work normally, which seriously affected people's livelihood and economy. Since February 2022, extreme events have led to disconnection from European natural gas and triggered a serious energy crisis in the European Union. As the earliest source of power energy for human beings, it takes a period of time to be completely or most replaced. Since the reform and opening up, my country's modern development path has only been more than 40 years. Although it has achieved remarkable achievements in economic development, we must soberly realize that we cannot blindly learn or imitate the development concept and development of developed western countries blindly. The road must follow the path of socialist economic development with Chinese characteristics. In summary, power limit will be the pain that must be experienced in the process of economic transformation in my country in the future.

Some suggestions

Based on the above analysis, in the critical period of the high -quality transformation and development of my country's economy, the following aspects must be prepared:

The first is that under the "double carbon" target constraint, my country's coal -to -electric loading machine cannot be increased on a large scale. It must increase the enthusiasm of thermal power power enterprises, strictly control the coal market hype, and "be played" for the malicious speculation of the spot and futures market. At the same time, the relevant energy insurance supply is issued in a timely manner to provide preferential policies or peak compensation for power generation enterprises to mobilize the enthusiasm of the enterprise.

The second is to re -examine and strengthen the top -level design of national energy supply, introduce encouraging policies and measures, and encourage the implementation of flexible transformation of firepower power enterprises. In the context of the rapid increase in the proportion of new energy power generation, and large -scale grid -connected power consumption, actively encouraged the flexibility transformation of coal electrical units, including peak adjustment, climbing rate, and start -stop time. The role of the stabilizer in my country's energy supply fully responds to the volatility of the power system.

The third is to strengthen the construction of domestic energy storage systems. Establish a high -inertial high -power energy storage system, improve the dynamic stability support and pressure regulation of the power grid, and store the excess electrical energy of the power supply during the peak period of power supply and release it in other forms and release it in the peak period of the radio waves. Essence

The fourth is to comprehensively build a multi -level and complementary smart grid covering the country. With the change of the role of large -scale new energy power access to the power grid and the load side, the energy supply and demand balance of the power system is getting higher and higher. Traditional power grids are difficult to meet. There must be a support for smart power grids with smart power distribution and disaster prevention functions under the comprehensive cooperation of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, and 5G communication.

Fifth, continue to promote the construction of my country's UHV -to -distribution network, and accelerate the improvement of cross -regional transmission capacity and emergency complementarity capabilities.

Author | Zuo Ge

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