Focusing on "grabbing coal", European energy transformation is worrying

Recently, affected by the "black swan" incident and the energy crisis caused by Russia's sanctions, especially after Russia announced the significant reduction of the gas pipeline transmission of "Beixi-1", many European countries announced restarting coal power plan.

The Austrian government recently decided to cooperate with the country's largest power supplier Victorian Company to restart the Melah waste coal power plant. This coal power plant is the last coal power plant in Austria and shut down in the spring of 2020. The French government is also ready to restart restart. The coal -fired power plant located in San Awald, which has just stopped operating at the end of March; the German government announced that it will temporarily restore a free coal -fired power plant with a maximum of 10 GW (GW). one third. Based on the data of all aspects, in Europe, there will currently be 8.171 million kilowatts of sealed units, and 4.458 million kilowatts will cancel 35%of production capacity restrictions. This part is expected to increase a total of 18.8 million tons of coal consumption. In addition, European coal -fired power plants in Europe are on standby, accounting for 1.5%of the European Union's total installed capacity. It is planned to operate at 65%in 2023, and it will generate 6 billion kWh's coal -fired power, which can be used as it can be used as it can be used as it can be used as it can be used. The EU provides about one week of electricity.

Before the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, 46%of the EU coal imported from Russia. After the conflict broke out, coal became the first goal of the EU's sanctions against Russian energy in early April this year. The EU took effect in the early August of the EU coal. Urgent. From the current situation, the source of coal imports in EU countries is concentrated in countries that have close coal trade in the past, such as Australia, the United States, Indonesia, South Africa, Colombia, etc. According to data from the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, from January to April 2022, German coal imports cumulatively 12.9877 million tons, an increase of 25.3%year -on -year. Li Dewan, director of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, also said that some EU countries have contacted Indonesian coal producers, of which Germany has taken the lead in throwing a large order of 150 million tons. Coincidentally, in March 2022 alone, Europe imported 1.3 million tons of coal from Colombia, and Columbia's exports to the European Union increased by more than 47%; South Africa also exported 287,000 tons of coal to Europe this year. However, compared to large -scale coal imports, for most European countries, re -opening coal mines mining is not within its plan. Only individual traditional coal production countries such as Greece and other countries restart the planning of coal mine mining.

Due to the low demand for the EU industry since this year, the overall power generation of the EU has been restricted, and many European countries have taken the opportunity to increase coal inventory to maintain the supply of coal prices. EU power plant operators began to accumulate hard coal in March this year to deal with Russian coal sanctions. The coal inventory in Northwestern Europe has increased to 6.6 million tons, the highest level since November 2019. As of June, European ARA port power coal inventory It reached 6.4 million tons, which is higher than the same period in the past two years. In the future, the coal market may have the current situation similar to the crude oil market, that is, other imported countries imported Russian coal on a large scale, and the European Union can only keep an eye on coal in Australia, Indonesia and other countries. Indonesia's energy community said that the European market mainly needs medium and high -level coal, and there is a huge gap between most Indonesian mining companies producing lower -level coal. There is a huge gap between Indonesian coal and European customers. It has been booked by Asian buyers. Nevertheless, Europe is still seeking a lot of imports. Indonesian coal mine companies have said that the supply capacity of existing contract obligations is limited, and a few mining companies that may have space expanded output will need government approval to increase production and exports. Another coal -producing country in Australia also has similar situations. Australian coal merchants are already at the upper limit of output, and it is unlikely to meet the extra supply of European supply.

After the European Union decided to sanction Russia's coal, European coal futures prices have risen, and since June, it has been at a high of 400 US dollars per ton since June, which has doubled more than doubled compared with the same period last year. Some people in the industry have analyzed that the current EU and other countries are constantly "grabbing coal", and the production capacity of many countries cannot increase in the short term. This will further intensify the global coal market. The tension of the international coal market will continue. The situation of the subsequent coal market needs to be depends on whether the OPEC oil-producing country can increase production and the "Beixi-1" situation in the future.

John Lostam, a professor of energy policy at the University of Potsdam, Germany believes that Europe is currently temporarily shifting to coal, the purpose is to strive for energy transformation in order to propose more sustainable long -term solutions. Some people in the industry have also analyzed that Europe only uses restarted coal power as a temporary measure, which has a limited impact on climate commitment and energy transformation. However, in the face of the saying that the EU energy policy "reverses", many people do not buy it.

Public opinion analysis believes that this "appropriate measure" not only cannot fundamentally solve the problem of energy shortage, but it will produce a lot of negative effects. On the one hand, it violates international carbon reduction consensus and damages global climate governance. While restarting coal power to alleviate its own energy crisis, many EU countries have not relaxed the emission reduction requirements in developing countries. They will adopt "double standards" to themselves in environmental protection, which will destroy environmental protection efforts of developing countries.

On the other hand, the European Union is backward on the road to energy transformation, delaying the realization of its own climate goals.Andreia Zardi, a professor of environmental economics in Italy, believes that restarting coal power may significantly delay the EU's process of transition to sustainable energy, and will also increase European dependence on fossil fuels and crowd out resources in the field of renewable energy in EU investment.Martias Booker, the head of the "Aggra Energy Transformation" think tank in Germany, said that the EU's energy transformation plan was corrected according to the current energy crisis, increasing coal emissions, and lacking specific and effective for reducing the demand for fossil fuel in Europe to reduce the demand for fossil fuel in EuropeMeasures have made Europe miss the opportunity to strengthen European energy sovereignty and achieve the European Union's climate goals.(Our newspaper Vienna, September 11th.

- END -