Polycrystalline silicon is now 100 billion yuan!Can contradictions in supply and demand next year be alleviated?

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.10

On the evening of September 9th, our reporter Li Zheng issued a major sales contract with a announcement. The announcement shows that Jingke Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jingke Energy") and its subsidiaries planned to purchase about 382,800 tons of polysilicon products from September 2022 -December 2026, a subsidiary of Tongwei Co., Ltd. The specific order price monthly discussion, the total contract transaction is subject to the final transaction amount. According to the latest single -crystal tight material (a polysilicon -editor's note) released by the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch (hereinafter referred to as the "Silicon Industry Branch"), the total sales are expected to be about 103.3 billion yuan Essence On August 31, the latest polysilicon weekly review released by the Silicon Industry Branch showed that the price range of the domestic single crystal reinforcement in China was 305,000 yuan to 31,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 307,200 yuan/ton. The increase of 0.39%; the price range of the single crystal dense material was 303,000 yuan to 308,000 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 305,100 yuan/ton, and the period ratio increased by 0.43%. On September 8th, the Silicon Industry Branch WeChat released the "Notice of Pushing Polycrystalline Silicon Collection Price", saying that recently, due to the influence of multiple factors, some supply chain prices have continued to fluctuate, impacting the stable operation of the crystal silicon photovoltaic industry. In order to avoid excessive interpretation and misunderstanding of the price of Polycrystalline silicon collected and released by Anto, it has decided to suspend the release of the collection price from this week. Experts expect that the contradiction between the supply and demand of polycrystalline silicon next year will alleviate Tongwei shares that the signing of the long -order sales contract will help the company's stable sales of polysilicon products, which will have a positive impact on the company's performance. Based on the average domestic single crystal tightly expenditure price of 305,100 yuan/ton (including tax), the total sales volume of the long single sales was expected to be about 103.356 billion yuan (excluding tax). Qi Haizheng, the president of Beijing's Sunshine New Energy, said, "At present, more and more photovoltaic companies are more inclined to sign the long -term contract contract, and it is also to stabilize costs and raw materials. The price is generally not announced to the outside world, so most of the prices collected come from the 'scattered order', which cannot truly reflect the trend of transaction prices in the polysilicon market. "He also said," Although small -scale scattered orders cannot reflect the real average Price, but the collection and release of this part of the price often causes some panic companies that cannot get the polycrystal silicon long -term contract company, and at the same time, it is also easy to use the opportunity to use panic to speculate on the price and market. It will also use these messages to make a difference in buying and selling silicon materials for sale, or to make up prices. "Therefore, he believes that the Silicon Industry Branch suspension of polysilicon collection prices is very necessary. So how will polysilicon prices be performed in the future? Looking at the timeline, the rising rose of polysilicon began in early 2021. According to business data, as of September 9, 2022, the domestic solar -level polysilicon spot price was 296,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 114.49%year -on -year, an increase of 69.14%from the beginning of the year, from 63,500 yuan/3,500 yuan/January 2021/2021 The cumulative quotation of the ton was 366.14%. In this regard, Bo Wenxi, chief economist of IGP, said that the continued high price of polysilicon silicon has grown rapidly with the rapid development of my country's photovoltaic industry in the past two years, while the production capacity of polysilicon has insufficient production capacity, slower production capacity release, and rising energy prices, etc. The factors are related. He Li, the general manager of the Masterpiece Investment, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that since the photovoltaic parity of photovoltaic prices in more than 2021, the demand for photovoltaic installation machines is far exceeding the market expectations, and the shortcomings of the industry chain have determined the overall supply of the industry, silicon material, and silicon material. In 2021, there was no significant new production capacity. "According to our calculations, in order to tie other links, the annual silicon material needs to be added by about 300,000 tons. At present, the production capacity of new silicon materials in the fourth quarter of 2022 has begun to release. The output is 50,000 tons to 10,000 tons, and the production capacity is close to double the year-on-year, and the contradiction between supply and demand of silicon materials will also begin to relieve. "He Li said. Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that from the middle and long term, the newly announced polysilicon new production capacity of the domestic production has exceeded 3 million tons, but the actual output may take a while. When landing, the output of polysilicon in the future is expected to greatly increase, alleviating the current supply in short supply. In the future, the problem of overcapacity needs to be alert to. As Ye Yindan said, many A -share listed companies have issued relevant announcements during the year, announcing the increase of polysilicon capacity or layout polysilicon business projects. For example, in April, Daquan Energy issued 11 billion yuan of funds to specific objects, of which about 8.03 billion yuan was used for an annual output of 100,000 tons of high -pure polysilicon production line projects to expand the company's polysilicon production capacity. Through the wholly -owned subsidiary Xinjiang Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., in the Economic and Technological Development Zone (Industrial Zone) of Ganquanbao, Urumqi, Xinjiang, "Central Xinjiang Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. Integration Project (an annual output of 200,000 tons height "Polycrystalline silicon project)" Investment and construction, layout of photovoltaic polycrystalline silicon capacity, and improve the entire industrial chain of silicon -based materials.

In this regard, Qi Haizheng reminded: "Now the photovoltaic industry is swallowed up by silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery films, components, including power stations, including power stations. Industrial development. At the same time, the continuous high level of polysilicon has also affected the promotion of downstream photovoltaic installations, especially centralized power stations. Most of these projects are led by central enterprises, which has caused great pressure on the advancement of downstream central enterprise power station projects. Therefore, from the macro macro At the perspective of perspective, the price of polysilicon will not be fired. "Liu Jimao, assistant to the president of Xingcheng Century, believes that at present, a large number of capital is attracted by the high profits of the silicon material. Before fully release, those who enter the game may follow the leading enterprises who have entered the game to make a wave of profits together. However, with the large number of production capacity, the production capacity will be excessive, resulting in the project's inaccessible return, which needs to be vigilant. Ye Yindan believes that in the process of layout or expanding polycrystalline silicon capacity, it is also necessary to pay attention to project construction conditions, including energy consumption indicators, design, especially the order of main equipment, and the transfer of goods. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether the project construction operation management team and professional technical backbone can ensure the smooth operation of the project. In addition, although more new entry companies tend to choose new solutions in manufacturing technology, they need to strengthen demonstration in terms of economic feasibility and commercial sustainability. It is worth mentioning that, thanks to the continuous high -crystal silicon prices and high prosperity in the industry during the year, the valuation of some related listed companies in the A -share market has also ushered in a certain degree of growth. As of the closing of September 9, Tongwei's stock price closed at 54.56 yuan/share, a cumulative increase of 23.88%during the year; TCL Central's stock price was closed at 49.25 yuan/share, a cumulative increase of 8.25%during the year. He Li said that the current valuation view of polysilicon -related concept stocks is periodical, and it is more optimistic about the integrity of the industrial chain. Some cost advantages, continuously extending downstream, and earning investment targets with stable growth in the industry in order to enjoy higher valuation premiums. Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map Network Review | Editor Wang Lixin | Shangguan Monroe Final Audit | Zhang Liang