Dong Xiucheng: Where is the commercialization of hydrogen energy difficult?

Zhongxin Jingwei June 20th. Question: Where is the commercialization of hydrogen energy difficult?

Author Dong Xiucheng's Executive Dean of China International Carbon Sino -Economic Research Institute of China International Carbon China and Trade University

On March 23, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Long -term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which is the first top -level design of the medium and long -term hydrogen energy industry released by the Chinese government with important milestones. document.

In the past, China had listed hydrogen as a hazardous chemical product and did not include it into the energy management system. The "Planning" clarified the energy attributes of hydrogen energy and will have a significant role in the development of the hydrogen energy industry. The output value of the hydrogen energy industry may reach a size of more than trillion yuan in the future.

In this context, the hydrogen energy industry is ready to go, and the stock price of related companies has risen in the capital market. However, in general, China's hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stages of development, far from entering the period of rapid growth, and it takes a long time before the maturity period of development. Compared with international advanced levels, there is no clear industrial strategy positioning and international competitiveness. It is urgent to solve problems and difficulties and difficulties in technological innovation.

The first is long -term strategy and industrial positioning.

Globally, the hydrogen energy industry has not really formed the global industrial chain, and the overall has not yet constituted a real promotion role in global economic development and response to climate change.

Although the source is extensive, what kind of role in the energy system is also in the academic and energy communities in the academic and energy community for a long time, and it is also one of the key reasons for China's hydrogen energy industry to fail to develop on a large scale.

In the field of hydrogen energy use, the current application scenarios are quite single, which seems to be mainly concentrated in the transportation field. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles still face some problems from the perspective of technical perspective and industrial chain. The most important of which are the hydrogen making route. This is one of the key elements that directly determine whether the industry has development prospects.

Judging from the planning of the hydrogen energy industry across China, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is concentrated in passenger cars, and the demonstration operations of medium -heavy trucks that are more advantageous for fuel cell technology routes are rarely carried out. According to industry insiders, after 2030, Chinese hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may have the conditions for industrialization. At that time, there are still risks such as technology, investment and cost. As we all know, the competitors of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are electric vehicles. It is expected that the battery technology of the key technology of electric vehicles may continue to make breakthroughs. For example, ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate technology may gradually mature, and the cost may continue to decline.

In this context, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may not have a competitive advantage in the medium and short -distance transportation vehicle market, or it is difficult to form competition with electric vehicles. If so, then the current large -scale investment in large -scale investment in hydrogen fuel cells can be used as a dynamic passenger car. It may be wrong. Investment returns may not be guaranteed, it may become a fatal problem. Water drift.

Judging from the content of the hydrogen energy industry planning in various places, those "decarburized" are really difficult and indeed need "hydrogen energy" fields, such as chemical, smelting, rail transit, aerospace, distributed power generation, thermal power connection, and many other industries. Instead, it involves less, and it is very lacking.

In addition, hydrogen energy also has the opportunity to use many other industries, which objectively requires clean energy such as wind power and photovoltaic sources in energy systems. At that time, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in western China can be transported to the east power consumption area through UHV technology, and hydrogen energy can turn unstable clean energy into energy -storeable and transportable energy sources.

Second, costs need to be further reduced, and industrial competitiveness needs to be improved.

The development of hydrogen energy industries in various regions of China is mostly in the demonstration stage. The infrastructure construction is severely lagging behind and the lack of quantity. The distribution of industrial areas is also very uneven. The new industry has not yet had commercial operation capabilities. The key factor is that the cost of the entire industry chain is too high.

In terms of hydrogen -making costs, at present, most of China's existing hydrogen -making technology relies on once energy such as coal and natural gas. Its economy is different from traditional fossil energy sources, and there are still risks in terms of environment, ecology and carbon emissions; If the hydrogen making from fossil energy, then another hydrogen -making path is electrolytic water, the required power must be green electricity, and renewable energy can be generated. In terms of energy conversion efficiency and cost, this path is low in efficiency. And high cost of comprehensive costs. The cost of hydrogen in China is high, and the hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage of commercialization, and it is difficult to reduce the cost of hydrogen -making through large -scale production.

In terms of hydrogen storage links, although technologies such as compressing hydrogen storage, liquefied hydrogen storage, and organic compound hydrogen storage have made great progress, the balance between the balance between hydrogen storage density, safety and hydrogen storage cost has not been resolved. Therefore, there is a large distance from large -scale commercialization applications. For example, under the domestic technical conditions, the total cost of hydrogen liquefaction process is very high, and the fixed investment in the early stage is large, and the cost of hydrogen storage is further increased.

In the hydrogen fuel cell link, the current lack of localization in the key parts and core raw material links of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, the technology is not mature, and the dependence of external imports is high, resulting in high costs. In addition, the application of Chinese hydrogen fuel cells is mostly in the field of commercial vehicles, and there is still much room for improvement. The problem of balanced regional development must also be crossed. China ’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicles mainly rely on government subsidies, and the purchase cost, operating costs and disposal costs of the application of the life cycle also need to be reduced. In terms of the construction cost of hydrogenation stations, the number of hydrogen refueling stations under construction in China is still very small, and it is mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei. The supporting equipment is also in the demonstration stage; China Construction of hydrogenation of hydrogen refueling is hydrogenation. The key parts required for the stations also do not have mature products with mass production, resulting in the high cost of construction of hydrogen refueling stations, low return on return, and no economic benefits and competitiveness, and it is difficult to implement.

The third is to strengthen innovation capabilities and break through the bottleneck of industrial technology.

Some key components and product technology of the Chinese hydrogen energy industry chain still have a large gap with the most advanced technology abroad. For example, key components such as membrane electrode, air compressor, hydrogen storage materials, hydrogen guns and hoses also need to rely on imports. Some key technologies are actually in a situation of being monopolized by foreign countries. For example, in terms of electrolyte hydrogen, there are currently two technical routes: alkaline hydrogenation hydrogen (ALK) and proton switching membrane (PEM) pure water electrolysis hydrogen. China's alkaline electrolytic groove technology is at the world's leading level, but There is a large gap between PEM hydrogen -making technology and the world's advanced level.

For another example, in terms of hydrogen refueling technology, although China has 35 MPA (MPA) hydrogen refueling station key technology and equipment integration capabilities, there is still a large gap in key indicators and localization; In terms of machine technology, Chinese hydrogen guns still rely on imports. Domestic 70 MPa (MPA) hydrogen refueling machines are in the test verification stage, and the gap between the 70 MPA (MPA) hydrogen refueling indicators operated by foreign commercialization is large.

Fourth, the development of the industry is relatively late, and the relevant standards need to be improved.

At present, the technical standards of Chinese hydrogen energy are not imperfect, and there are few technical standards involving hydrogen quality, storage, transportation, hydrogenation stations and safety. In order to develop the healthy development of the hydrogen energy industry, China should actively carry out pragmatic international cooperation and establish a product testing and certification mechanism simultaneously. The state should adopt policy measures to promote the support of the development of alliance standards and industry standards, and accelerate the establishment of standardized collaborative innovation mechanisms combined with national standards, industry standards and alliance standards. For example, in terms of approval of the construction of hydrogenation stations, the unified standard system construction is strengthened.

Fifth, infrastructure construction needs to be strengthened.

Infrastructure construction is a key link to open up and downstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and it is also a prerequisite for the large -scale promotion and application of hydrogen energy. With the landing of demonstration urban policies, the construction of domestic hydrogen refueling stations has begun to speed up. We expect that the number of domestic hydrogen refueling stations in 2030 may exceed 1,000, but at least 1,400 hydrogen refueling stations will be required to meet the needs of major cities to meet the needs of major cities. Essence Therefore, it is currently urgent to change the situation where the number of hydrogen refueling stations is seriously insufficient. China can trace the source of the original, overtake the curve, make full use of existing oil and gas infrastructure, orderly promoting the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure in an orderly manner, and effectively improve the safety and economy of hydrogen storage and transportation and injection.

Sixth, regional coordination should be strengthened to change the status quo of the misalignment of the industrial layout.

Limited to the distribution of China's renewable energy resources, the hydrogen -making end and hydrogen side often have a large time and space misalignment, and have not yet formed a complete hydrogen storage and transportation network channel. For example, northwestern China has abundant renewable energy resources (such as scenery, etc.), while places with large -scale demand for hydrogen are mainly economically developed and densely populated southeast regions.

And from the perspective of practical analysis and actual assessment, in terms of the development of the hydrogen energy industry, although China has made progress, and localities have actively developed planning and support policies, in general, the hydrogen energy industry is basically in technology research and development and project demonstrations. At the stage, there is no condition for large -scale business promotion. However, at the current stage, there are some phenomena of various types of projects that are rushed and blindly launched. The trend of homogeneous competition is becoming increasingly obvious, and it must also be standardized.

If these issues are insufficient, the risk of overcapacity may be faced, and the low -level repeated investment problems that have occurred in the past may occur again. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor in charge: Wang Lei

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