Disassembling the "profit chain" of the new energy vehicle industry: lithium salt proud of the heroes, and the diaphragm is "dull and rich"

On the whole, the basic raw materials in the first half of the year are still relatively high, and the cost of downstream materials and battery manufacturing is still high.

With the rapid capacity of mainstream models such as BYD and GAC Ean, in the first half of 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing.

On September 6, at the Fourth Global New Energy and Smart Automobile Supply Chain Innovation Conference, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 25%of the target. That is, this year.

Related data shows that in the first half of the year, new energy vehicles were sold 2.6 million, an increase of 115%year -on -year, and the market penetration rate reached 21.6%, which also led to the significant increase in the total demand end and brought strong support to the lithium battery industry chain.

Taking 81 sample companies incorporated into the Wind Lithium battery sector as an example, more than 86%of companies in the first half of the year achieved income growth, and 75%of the company's net profit increased year -on -year.

However, due to certain differences in the cost composition of the industry chain, the release of capacity, and the relationship between supply and demand, the profit margins and performance elasticity between different links in the first half of the year are also obvious.

For example, the gross profit margin of the most prominent salt lake lithium raising enterprises can reach more than 90%, while the gross profit margin of the battery manufacturing link is below 15%, and even some companies are less than 10%.

Lithium salt is still the "strongest spear"

In the first half of the year, lithium salt rose sharply, and lithium carbonate rose from about 280,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to nearly 520,000 yuan.

This caused a strong dissatisfaction of downstream battery companies, and in the first quarter, the profit of Ningde Times declined sharply from the previous month. Since then, when holding an industry conference in the next reaches, lithium prices have become the focus of discussion, and even some people in the industry are nicknamed the "Tucao Conference".

In terms of actual data performance, there is indeed no link in the profit margin that can surpass the lithium ore and lithium salt industry.

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald, 13 lithium -salt companies that announced the relevant data have an average gross profit margin of 71.03%in the first half of the year, an average increase of 35.63 percentage points year -on -year.

Judging from the interim report data, the saying that some car companies' founders "the cost of lithium carbonate may be 30,000 to 50,000 yuan" was not rigorous. It is to use the cost level of individual enterprises to represent the entire industry.

In the semi -annual report, companies that can achieve the above cost level can only be lithium -lake lithium -lifting companies including Salt Lake shares, and their gross profit margin exceeds 90%.

"After all, the production capacity and output of salt lakes are a minority. Most of the domestic lithium salt production capacity is still ore lithium. Among them, the proportion of companies that achieve completely self -care is small, and most raw materials come from imported mines." A researcher at a lithium power bank in East China said.

From this perspective, the average cost of lithium salts in China in the first half of the year is far more than 50,000 yuan/ton, especially in some external mining raw materials lithium salt plants. Enterprises are very different.

In contrast, although the prices of cobalt and nickels of the other two core raw materials have also performed, they are not very obvious due to the influence of the cost -ending rising.

According to data from the Nonferrous Market of the Yangtze River, the average cobalt price in the first half of the year was 515,000 yuan/ton, and in the same period of 2021, it was about 350,000 yuan, and the average price rose significantly.

However, the semi -annual report released by Hanrui Cobalt showed that the gross profit margin of the company's cobalt products in the current period was 33.63%, a year -on -year increase of only 0.79 percentage points.

In this regard, the company said that "the price has indeed increased significantly, but the cobalt seminin also increased significantly during the same period, so the increase in profit margins is not obvious."

The trend of cobalt concentrates in the first half of the year can also be seen that the price of the East East region of the cobalt concentrate at the beginning of the year was about $ 26/pound. By May this year, it rose to nearly $ 32/pound, and the cobalt price had begun to decline at the same time.

The decline in copper prices since April, and the net profit in the second quarter of Hanrui Cobalt has also declined slightly compared with the first quarter.

In fact, the trend of the upstream raw materials in the first half of the year was similar. In addition to the strong performance of lithium prices, cobalt, nickel, and other basic metals showed a trend of rising and falling.

Among them, nickel prices are the most prominent. In the early March of this year, the Lun Nickel's abnormal fluctuation incident overdrawn the rise of nickel prices in the next few years. Since then, it has fallen with other metals and has fallen to the level before March.

However, because A -share related listed companies, Jien Nickel and Huaze Cobalt Nickel have already been delisted, it is difficult to observe the changes in the profit trends of relevant companies.

On the whole, the basic raw materials in the first half of the year are still relatively high, and the cost of downstream materials and battery manufacturing is still high.

The diaphragm link "Small sounds to get rich"

Lithium, nickel, and cobalt are mainly used for the positive electrode material of the ternary battery, while the positive electrode of the lithium iron phosphate is mainly lithium and iron, so the cost and price of the two are significantly different.

Baichuan Yingfu data also shows that the average national lithium iron phosphate prices in the first and second quarters of this year were 145,000 yuan/ton and 156,000 yuan/ton, respectively. /Ton.

In the semi -annual report, the profit margin of lithium iron phosphate companies is also higher than the three yuan material.

Taking Tesla suppliers Zhongwei as an example, the company is the leading industry of the world's three -yuan front -drive body. In the first half of the year, the company's lithium battery front -a front drive material gross profit margin was 11.1%, a year -on -year decrease of 1.37 percentage points, of which the gross profit margin of the ternary front -drive body was 11.89%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points.

The company's purchasing raw materials contain cobalt sulfate and nickel sulfate, and refer to the spot quotation of Shanghai's non -colored spot. It has undoubtedly affected to a certain extent in the background of the rise in cobalt and nickel prices in the first half of the year. In contrast, lithium iron phosphate profit margins are higher. For example, the gross profit margin of Fulin Essence and Germany nano -gross margin in the first half of the year reached 17.46%and 27.81%, respectively, both in a state of increase.

"In terms of manufacturing, the ternary battery is also significantly higher than the lithium iron phosphate, and the price of ternary materials is much higher than the lithium lithium. Considering the factors of the input -output ratio, the three yuan cannot reach the profit margin of lithium iron phosphate. "The above -mentioned researchers of the lithium battery bank said that at the same time, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate demand in China in the past two years has also significantly higher than the three yuan materials, and the supply and demand relationship also makes the iron lithium premium capacity better.

In contrast, the negative electrode links are affected by raw materials such as graphite, needle -shaped focus, and high graphite processing costs.

According to the data reported by the leading industry leader Betry, the price of semi -annual reports from Betry showed that the price of graphite founders in the first half of the year rose sharply and rose to 28,000 yuan/ton in the second quarter. In terms of raw materials, the price of scales in the Northeast region rose by about 73%year -on -year, Shandong Shandong, Shandong, Shandong, Shandong, Shandong, Shandong, Shandong. The price of scales in the region rose by about 36%year -on -year; needle -shaped coke rose to more than 11,000 yuan per ton ... "

According to Zhou Hao, an analyst of Baichuan Yingfu's negative industry analyst, every 5%to 10%of the oil coke and needle scoring will increase by about 2,000 to 3,000 yuan.

Under the above background, Betry and Zhongke's electrical negative material gross profit margin of the relevant data decreased by more than 10 percentage points, and the overall maintenance of about 20%was maintained. Betry could reach 23.54%.

In addition, due to the full order and increased shipments, companies in this link can still achieve profit growth.

Among the four major main materials, the electrode solution has changed the largest in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, the price of lithium hexovantic lithium and electrolytic solution was cut. The profit margin of the product has declined.

The interim report shows that the cost of lithium hexifluoropophosphate in Skyrims increased by 167.09%, and revenue increased by 142.84%. The current gross profit margin was slightly reduced by 8.1 percentage points to 50.73%.

"The horizontal contrast, the high profit margin and the stable is the diaphragm. One is that the proportion of the raw material cost is very small, and the other is that the price of the product is very stable, so it does not increase the price." It sells more than 1 yuan per square meter, and the coating is more than 2 yuan. The price of some overseas exports is close to 3 yuan, while the cost of raw materials is only a few cents.

The gross profit margin of each diaphragm enterprise can also reach about 50%in the first half of the year, of which the gross profit margin of Ensijie's film film product is 52.03%, and the gross profit margin of Xingyuan material lithium -ion battery diaphragm has also reached 47.01%.

In the opinion of the above people, although the diaphragm is not as concerned as lithium salt, the victory is stable and the entry threshold is high, which may become the best profit of the four main materials. Capital entering and new production capacity, and the septum link must be done to make money. "

The cost pressure of batteries and vehicles still exists

As early as July 2021, the newspaper reported early warning. "In the context of the systemic rise of commodities, the cost of power battery materials undoubtedly increased rapidly ... Even, some raw materials do not rule out the possibility of further rise. The upstream is obviously more happy to see it. It is mapped to the 2021 financial report of the middle reaches of the industrial chain such as Ningde Times.

At that time, the average price of lithium carbonate was less than 100,000 yuan/ton. Even so, the gross profit margin of the Ningde Times and the energy storage system in Ningde Times in 2021 also decreased by 4.56%and 7.51%, respectively.

In the first quarter of this year, the commodity commodity rose systematically. In early March, lithium carbonate exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton. The basic raw materials such as nickel and cobalt were simultaneously upward.

Although the response to the rise in costs was lagging behind, after the disclosure of the first quarter report of the Ningde era, the market was still uproar. The current income of nearly 50 billion yuan, net profit is less than 1.5 billion yuan.

In the second quarter, although the price of some raw materials fell, and the product price adjustment was adopted, the cost was transmitted to the terminal, so that the current quarterly profit was returned to 6.68 billion yuan, but the capital market was still worried.

The semi -annual report released by Ningde Times on August 23 showed that the gross profit margin of the main products fell across the board, the gross profit margin of the power battery system dropped by nearly 8 percentage points, and the gross profit margin of the energy storage system decreased by 30.17 percentage points to 6.43%.

This situation is not a family in Ningde, and other battery companies have also been impacted in the first half of the year.

Among them, BYD's "car, related products and other products" gross profit margin was 16.3%, a year -on -year decrease of 1.73%; Guoxuan Hi -Tech "Power Lithium Battery" gross profit margin was 12.49%, a year -on -year decrease of 35.17%; Xinwangda's "electric vehicle battery" The gross profit margin was 8.76%, an increase of 2.37%, and the "energy storage battery" gross profit margin was 18.57%, a decrease of 5.86%.

In the Ningde Times disclosed the next day, the company's stock price fell continuously, and fell 100 yuan in half a month. It was not until September 7 that a more powerful rebound occurred.

Aside from factors such as funds and emotions in the secondary market, just as far as the fundamental factors are justified, at least the cost risk of the power battery link at least has not been lifted.

Compared with the above data, the prices of direct materials such as nickel and cobalt, as well as positive materials and electrolytes have fallen, but the core contradictions have not resolved.

According to the above -mentioned practitioners, the cost of lithium salt accounted for about 10%in 2020, but with the rise of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in the past two years, the cost of lithium salt accounted for nearly 50%in early September."Most of the battery costs are positive poles, and most of the cost of the positive pole is lithium salt."

This is also the main reason why Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, has repeatedly "discussed" lithium carbonate.As long as the price of lithium salt does not fall, the profit margin of battery companies such as Ningde Times cannot be significantly recovered. Unless the price increases on the basis of the second quarter, this method will cause dissatisfaction among vehicle companies.

It should also be noted that after the second quarter "seasonal fall" in the second quarter, a new round of rise has begun in late August.

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