Russian and Ukraine War -Energy Disputes

In the battle of Russia, the European energy crisis was prominent, and the latest data released by the multinational governments in June showed that the inflation rates in Finland, Germany, Sweden and other countries reached a 30 -year high. But for the so -called "political correctness", it had to sacrifice energy sanctions against Russia, which undoubtedly worsened the difficult economic prospects.

The European Union recently released "Repower EU", which proposed a more aggressive energy independent strategy. The blueprint is magnificent, but there are different voices for how to get rid of dependence against Russia and whether it can embark on a real green road.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, European streets were staged every day around Russian energy protests. One party demands that Russia's energy is prohibited immediately, and the other party is struggling for livelihood.

Climate and energy

On May 18, the European Commission announced the details of the "RepowerEu" energy plan. Repower Eu means "re -energy supply for the European Union." This is a prescription for Europe to respond to the energy crisis and achieve energy independently.

In fact, on March 8th, for 14 days of Russia and Ukraine, the European Union had already proposed this energy plan to gradually get rid of the dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030.

Wang Nengquan, an expert in the National Energy Commission:

After more than two months, this document has been very detailed. We have seen a lot of roadmaps: its short -term action, long -term action, how to save energy, how to develop renewable energy, and how to develop clean energy technology.

In this plan, the European Union proposed to invest 300 billion euros by 2030, of which 210 billion euros will be invested by 2027. And all investment plans, how to spend and funds how to raise funds, have some specific sources and claims.

The energy crisis is no stranger to older Europeans, and Germans have a deeper understanding.

In 1973, in the war between Israel and Egypt, and Syria, the Arab oil exporting countries condemned the Western industry to unilaterally support Israel and decided to use their oil as a weapon to fight for rights for the Palestinian people. It decides to restrict the supply of oil, embarked on Europe and the United States, and oil prices have skyrocketed.

During the oil crisis in 1973, the Germans were banned from driving on Sunday. Only special groups such as police and doctors could obtain a Sunday driving permit. People walk on highways, cycling, and even wonders of carriage cars.

This oil crisis made Europe aware of the importance of energy diversification and energy independence.

At the same time, the results of human beings have gradually deepened the results of atmospheric research. At the end of the 1980s, a series of intergovernmental conferences began to discuss climate change issues and reducing greenhouse gas discharge to become the correct commitment of politics in various countries, which coincided with the road of renewable energy in Europe. But so far, Europe still has seriously relied on Russia's fossil energy sources.

In 2019, after Feng Delin became the first female chairman of the European Commission, it clearly stated that climate action would be the core of her chairman's term. In December of that year, she launched the "European Green Agreement" after her inauguration, allowing Europe to become the first mainland of climate in 2050. Development of clean energy is considered the key to this agreement.

In July 2021, the European Union passed the "Fit For 55" energy and climate. In order to achieve a neutral climate in 2050, it suggested that the energy power supply ratio of renewable energy in 2030 increased from 32%to 40%. Now, just 10 months later, this goal has become 45%.

Chen Weidong, Master of Energy Management of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Chen Weidong:

As an energy source, renewable energy is the only direction in Europe. There are not many natural resources in Europe, and there are not many coal, let alone oil and gas. Beihai has been aging. I called Norwegian friends a month ago. I said that you would export 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe a year, can you still increase? He said it was very difficult, and it would be good if it was not falling. I also asked friends in the Netherlands that they said that we could not maintain production, because the reserves were like that.

Wind power demand

In the "RepowerEu" energy plan of the EU Commission on May 18, photovoltaic power generation was ranked in the most important position.

The rules are proposed that by 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 320GW, which is twice the installation volume at the end of 2021. By 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 600GW, which is nearly doubled. The document also proposes that photovoltaics are gradually required to be installed in new housing and industrial and commercial buildings. In this plan, the importance of wind power is second only to solar energy.

Zhao Chen, a researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

In the short term, we have doubled at a rate of double or even three times. We used to know that Europe was relatively slow in the past, including wind power and solar power generation are high -time, high energy, and high -cost projects. However, under the current background of the geopolitical crisis, it can be said that European wind power and solar power generation are accelerating, and they are "stepping on the accelerator."

However, due to the decline in wind energy production, in the first half of 2021, the amount of energy power generation in Germany fell by 8.1%, the UK fell 9.5%, and France fell by 7.2%. However, this year, economic growth was superimposed with extreme weather, and global power demand increased by more than 6%, which led to 11%of coal power in Europe.

Zhao Chen, a researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

The European Union tried to establish a unified European energy market. In fact, it also involved the problem of grid support, grid docking, standard docking, and power grid loss caused by long -distance transportation. Therefore, the entire European energy market has an overall appearance, but it is actually a one The pattern of division. The strong economic strength of which country is actually stronger in the energy market.

When the EU released the sixth round of sanctions, on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, Russia's offensive efforts to the Norton and Halkov region in Rougosk.

At the same time, due to the disagreement with Russian settlement with Russian energy, Russia also stopped supplying natural gas to some natural gas companies such as Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands. Earlier, Russia has made disconnected supply to many natural gas companies such as Poland, Bulgaria, Finland.

International energy prices have further increased, which has also made Europe, which is deeply trapped in the energy crisis.

Nuclear power difference

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson:

In 8 years, we will build a nuclear power plant and a nuclear reactor every year, and bring the nuclear home instead of each.

French President Macron:

I hope to build 6 nuclear reactors, and we will also start research on the construction of 8 additional nuclear reactors.

In March 2011, after the Fukushima nuclear leakage incident, Europe's actively promoted nuclear power plant pressed the suspension button. The discussion of "nuclear" once became a European issue, and Germany was particularly determined.

German government spokesman Stephen Hobesterete:

Germany opposes peaceful use of nuclear energy. At the end of last year, we closed three nuclear power plants, and the other three nuclear power stations were still running before the end of this year, and we will be closed soon. This will make Germany completely get rid of nuclear energy.

Zhao Chen, a researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

Germany and Fa have different views on the issue of nuclear. At the European Union Conference in 2021, Germany insisted that nuclear energy should not be used as a sustainable development of energy, and France resolutely believes that nuclear energy can be listed as a list of sustainable financial support lists.

From the cold winter from 2021 to 2022, European energy prices rose all the way, and natural gas prices soared by nearly 600%. At the time of Russia and Ukraine's swords, French President Macron proposed "nuclear capacity".

Now, the energy crisis and war have finally made Europe make a choice between energy security and the potential danger of nuclear energy. According to the plan of the multinational government, nuclear power will begin to restart on a large scale in continental Europe.

Fossil energy influx

In addition, a large amount of fossil energy is pouring into Europe.

European entrepreneurs understand that even if renewable energy is currently realized by renewable energy, energy and such as coal and natural gas are still indispensable for the current industrial industry.

Chen Weidong, Master of Energy Management of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Chen Weidong:

Some fuel (fossil energy) cannot be replaced. Many industrial processing such as steelmaking, heating, glass, and ceramics cannot be used.

Zhao Chen, a researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

Russia imported from Germany is not only used for heating and cooking. To a large extent, one -third is also used for chemical industry production and other industrial products. If Germany breaks Russia's natural gas this year, the German economy will lose more than 2%GDP this year.

In order to fill the natural gas gap, European countries compete for alternatives. However, in the traditional natural gas market, the long -term agreement between 20 or even thirty years is common, and this is not in line with European energy blueprints.

Coal

Right now, in addition to the group and the state of gas production, many European countries have also re -mined coal.

As early as the end of 2015, the British Coal Corporation officially announced the closure of the last underground coal mine "Kai Lingli", which began in the coal industry during the industrial revolution 300 years ago. However, after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, a new coal mining plan entered the review process.

"Coal Pioneer" Germany has now announced the establishment of strategic coal reserves and re -started the coal -fired thermal power plant that has long been retired.

Wang Nengquan, an expert in the National Energy Commission:

In such difficulties, if they still adhere to their ambitious climate policies, the goal is good, but the reality is actually very cruel. What it can do is to buy coal from all over the world, buy LNG, and buy natural gas. Coal in other parts of the world is pouring to Europe. Indonesia's coal, Australia's coal, and the United States are all flooding to Europe, so Europe 2022 2022 The annual coal consumption must be increased.

Energy and carbon reduction

In order to solve the energy dilemma in front of me, it is running counter to the target of carbon reduction. Politics, economy, people's livelihood, environment, various issues are entangled.

Politicians have reached an agreement, but at the Davos Forum, economists have been arguing about how to make up for the energy gap after rejection of Russia's energy sources and whether to develop fossil energy.

Robert Habeck, Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Action in Germany:

I think we currently have at least four issues or crises to interweave each other. In some countries, the inflation rate is very high. You must admit that we have an energy crisis, we face food poverty, and climate crisis. If we only pay attention to one of the crisis, we cannot solve the problem.

Zhao Chen, a researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:

Eight Immortals cross the sea and show their magical powers. Go to the road that suits you best to ensure your energy supply. If any country does not find any more, it will be resolved through its internal market coordination. Of course, market coordination may be compared with "dog blood", which will be mixed with many games. On May 31, Fitti Lier, executive officer of the International Energy Agency, said that Russia is the cornerstone of the global energy system. Russia and Ukraine's conflict and Western sanctions on Russia have faced the triple crisis of oil, natural gas, and power at the same time. He believes that the current energy crisis will be larger and longer than the crisis in the 1970s and 1980s.

The battle of Russia and Ukraine has made Europe a deep sense of energy crisis, and the desire for energy independence is stronger than at any time in history. The goals of each country are highly consistent with the goal of achieving energy independence, but to get rid of the dependence against Russia, whether it can solve the current supply crisis, how to overcome the technical difficulties of future new energy, and challenge one after another. The end of the war will end, how will the future world energy pattern change, whether it is light or a new crisis, maybe only time can give the answer.

Producer: Song Yang

Edit: Li Weifan

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