Extremely review | There must be a earthquake after the drought?There is no need to be a "prediction" in front of the disaster

Ji Mu News commentator Qu Jing

On September 5, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan. Not long before, Sichuan had drought due to high temperatures in many places. Based on this, many netizens quoted the "drought and earthquake theory", saying that "there must be a earthquake after the drought". Sun Shizhen, a researcher at the China Earthquake Network Center Center, said that this statement is not conclusive and cannot be labeled and briefly understood. (According to China News Network on September 6)

After the Luding earthquake occurred, some netizens issued a "dry earthquake theory" saying that the earthquake can be predicted (source: short video screenshot)

After the drought, there must be a earthquake, which has a long history. According to an article published by the official WeChat public account of the Guizhou Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, "Guizhou Disaster Prevention and Control", "Topics: There must be a earthquake after the drought, is it alarmist or a scientific prediction? "One article pointed out that as early as the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, Zuo Qiuming recorded the second year of King Zhou You (780 years ago) in" Mandarin ". The big earthquake occurred.到了现代，著名地质学家耿庆国通过深入分析和研究大量数据和事实，得出了“旱震理论”：“凡发生过6级以上大型地震的区域，在地震发生之前的1-3年间，往往There will be very serious drought disasters. "

The core of this conclusion is that there is a strong connection between drought and earthquake, and the reason why Geng Qingguo started to do this study stemmed from the folk proverb he heard from farmers in his early years: "There must be a earthquake after the drought." It can be seen that this theory is not the result of advanced technology prediction, but based on the actual life experience of farmers, which is speculated based on statistical laws.

Some netizens' discussions on the theory of "dry earthquake" (Source: Weibo screenshot)

Before the earthquake in Luding in Sichuan this time, Sichuan and the entire Yangtze River Basin suffered rare high temperature droughts. At that time, many netizens were worried about whether this is a sign of the earthquake. On social media, many people have a long picture of earthquakes after the droughts over the years, predicting that the earthquake will occur. Therefore, when Luding's earthquake just occurred, there were many "predictions" on the Internet, reposting their previous speeches to prove that they successfully predicted the earthquake and enjoyed the touting and admiration of netizens who did not know the truth. There are facts that cannot be ignored.

It is not to say that the "dry earthquake theory" cannot be discussed. Earthquake predictions are currently a worldwide problem. There are more discussions and research in the scientific community, and accumulate experience. There is no harm to the laws of understanding. However, if only a single condition is used to predict the earthquake prediction and is convinced of the truth, then it has been separated from the essence of science.

Popular science articles issued by the Guizhou Provincial Geological Environment Monitoring Institute (Source: WeChat public account "Guizhou Disaster Prevention and Control" screenshot)

Some seismologists said that if the time of statistics is stretched, the accuracy rate of "there must be a big earthquake after the drought" will be significantly reduced. According to Zhang Yongxian, a researcher at the Institute of Earthquake Prediction of the China Earthquake Administration, from 1900 to 2013, A total of 142 major earthquakes in my country occurred in China. Among them, the situation was only 79 times in the drove area within four years before the earthquake, and the ratio was 56%. If the earthquake center is not necessarily a drought center, there are 1297 droughts in more than 110 years, while the earthquakes occur 119 times from 1 to 3 years, only 9%. It can be seen that the reliability of statistical inference is affected by many factors such as sample capacity, statistical mechanism, and index definition, and it is still difficult to become a reliable scientific prediction method.

However, the most important thing for earthquake prediction is high reliability. The predictions are not allowed to not only cause unnecessary panic, but also bring losses to society and economy. The period predicted by the "Drought Seismic Theory" is in the category of medium and long-term forecasting in 1-3 years. At present, my country's earthquake forecast has a certain understanding of medium and long-term forecasts. Short -date forecast. There is no need to understand too much theoretical knowledge. It is necessary to prevent people not only affect daily life, but also prevent them in time before the earthquake comes, reducing personnel casualties and property losses. The short -term forecast is the most meaningful. Otherwise, even if you know that an earthquake will occur within 3 years of a certain place, you can only prepare for strengthening emergency facilities and mechanisms, enhanced disaster prevention and minus and mitigation capabilities. Also live. It can only be said that the earthquake forecast is still a long way to go for scientists all over the world, and still wants to ask for it.

Luding earthquake rescue site (Source: CCTV News)

The disaster struck, the homeland collapsed, and the eloquence suffered. It is necessary to pay attention and concern, but it is not necessary to "win the lottery" that "the theory of drought shocks" is generally excited to confirm how accurate it is. For disaster, this is neither scientific nor solemn. The difficulties and pains facing people who are involved in the affected area are involved, and they will increase their unfortunate feelings and sprinkle salt on the wounds of the deceased's family.

In fact, many people's attention to earthquake forecasting and the recognition of the "dry earthquake theory" is only a way to express concerns and concerns about the disaster area. But the more importantly, the more we must believe in science and think rationally what we can do for the disaster area, instead of being busy to earthquake the "prophet".

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