Is there a earthquake after the drought?Geological expert: currently lack of scientific basis

On September 5th, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan. As of now, the earthquake has killed 65 people, and rescue and rescue work is in progress.

After the earthquake, there were many claims about the earthquake on the Internet. Among them, the saying of "there was a big earthquake after the drought" was mentioned again. Since July this year, Sichuan has encountered the worst drought in 10 years, so is there a connection between drought and earthquakes? After the Luding earthquake, what should I pay attention to from the perspective of geological disaster? In response to these hot issues, Professor Xu Qiang, deputy principal of Chengdu Institute of Technology, and the executive deputy director of the National Key Laboratory of Geological Disasters and Geological Environmental Protection, made an answer.

There has been a long -term saying- "there is a earthquake after the drought". This year Sichuan experienced the worst drought in 10 years. After the Luding 6.8 earthquake on September 5, many people thought of this long -standing rumor. Essence In response to this statement, Professor Xu Qiang believes that at least now, there is no scientific basis for the "dry earthquake theory", and there is no sufficient evidence to prove that it exists.

Xu Qiang first cited an example of refutation. This year, a post -doctoral Qin Siqing graduated from Chengdu University of Technology. He is currently engaged in earthquake research. He wrote a blog to refute the "dry earthquake theory". Xu Qiang believed that he refuted very reasonable. From the perspective of global statistics, the earthquakes occur millions of times a year, of which level 6 or more will be hundreds of times. There are dozens of times at level 7, and level 8 may be several times a year. Then, according to such a concept, in fact, no matter whether we are drought or dry, we will encounter an earthquake.

It is understood that the "dry earthquake theory" believes that the earthquakes above level 6 or above are often dry areas from one to three and a half years before the earthquake, and the larger the dry area area, the larger the earthquake level; In the third year, it was greater than the magnitude of the earthquake in one year after the drought.

In response to this statement, Professor Xu Qiang said that the connection with drought and earthquakes has neither theoretical basis nor statistical basis. In terms of theoretical basis, at least it has not figured out what is the relationship between drought and earthquakes. Although the interaction between multi -circle layers is emphasized, it is believed that the atmospheric ring, biosphere, and water ring to rock rings, and then to the inner ring inside the earth, there are indeed interaction between the circles. But the intensity of interaction is different. Is there any relationship? Xu Qiang said that it also has it, but is there any necessity and very close connection in the middle, at least now it is not observed in theory. Because the earthquake is a rupture and dislocation in the rock ring of the earth, drought is affected by the atmosphere. These are the interaction of two different circles. We can't deny it, but how intensity is the role between the atmosphere and the crustal movement? What kind of value is it? At least scientifically has not made it clear.

At the same time, from the basis of statistics, Xu Qiang said that millions of earthquakes of various levels occur each year. Many places in the world are drought every year. For example, many places in Africa, these places cannot say that there will be a earthquake. Therefore, there is no inevitable connection in the middle.

In addition, for the Luding earthquake, Xu Qiang said that he should always pay attention to disaster prevention and mitigation after the earthquake, especially in the next West China autumn rain, pay attention to local collapse and landslides such as landslides.

(Part of the information of the manuscript is derived from the National Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Prevention and Geological Environmental Protection of Chengdu University of Technology)

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