Is there a big shock after the drought?Earthquake experts say that ...

On the 5th, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan. Not long before, Sichuan had drought due to high temperatures in many places. Based on this, some people quoted the "drought earthquake theory", saying that "there must be a earthquake after the drought". So, is there really a scientific basis for this statement? Can the earthquake predict?

After the earthquake, the affected people were transferred. Zhu Yuanxu Photo

Is there a big shock after the drought?

Before the earthquake in Luding County, Sichuan, high temperature and drought phenomenon occurred in southern China. Therefore, some people put forward the saying of "there must be a earthquake after the drought", and the "drought earthquake theory" was cited.

On September 1 this year, the WeChat public account of the Guizhou Geological Environment Monitoring Institute "Guizhou Disaster Prevention" was published in the "Topic: There must be a earthquake after the drought, is it alarmist or a scientific prediction? "The article, saying that" there must be a earthquake after the big drought ", the earliest can be traced back to the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period in my country. In the "Mandarin" written by Zuo Qiuming's "Mandarin": In the second year of King Zhou You (780 years ago), the three rivers of Li, Wei, and Luo Luo were exhausted. The earthquake in the capital of the Western Zhou Dynasty (now Xi'an, Shaanxi) collapsed.

The article mentioned that the damage caused by this earthquake was very large. Sima Qian's "Historical Records" recorded that the three large rivers and rivers of Xizhou had broken flow, and Qishan even had landslides and landslides.

In modern society, Geng Qingguo, a Chinese geologist, began to systematically study the relationship between the drought and the earthquake, and proposed the "drought earthquake theory". He believes that "Any area where large earthquakes above 6 or above occur, 1-3 years before the earthquake occur, there are often very serious drought disasters. The intensity of the earthquake that occurs after that will be greater and the destructive power will be stronger. "

The collapse and falling stone along the road. Photo Conferring in Sichuan Forest Fire

Expert: No scientific conclusion,

Can't label, simplify

Sun Shizhen, a researcher at the China Earthquake Network Center Center, said that since the 1960s, many methods and theories have appeared in academic research in the field of earthquake forecasting in China for decades. Among them, many theories have controversial disputes. Many controversial theories are controversial. There is no conclusion so far, which is also a common phenomenon in scientific exploration.

Regarding the theory of Geng Qingguo, Sun Shizhen said that this theory has more complicated research indicators, research elements and research methods. After the earthquake occurred, excessive amplification and spreading. In the field of earthquake forecasting, it is not possible to simply perform earthquake prediction forecasts with a meteorological event.

"First of all, this theoretical study is the relationship between severe drought and the seventh or eight strong earthquakes, not to say that it is related to this earthquake at the fifth or sixth level. Sun Shizhen said.

The rescue forces such as Ganzi Prefecture Public Security Traffic Police are evacuating vehicles to be damaged in the earthquake. Picture of Ganzi Prefecture Public Security Bureau

Although the current academic community has no conclusion on the relationship between drought and earthquakes, Sun Shizhen said, "One thing I think is certain, that is, the climate change we feel is definitely related to the crust internal crust movement inside the earth."

Regarding the regular study of earthquakes, Sun Shizhen said that the earthquake has relatively concentrated characteristics in space, and the earthquake also has a relative active period and a peaceful period in time.

"For example, a period of time is concentrated in Sichuan region, a period of time is concentrated in the Ganqing area, a period of time in North China, etc. From the global perspective, there are also the Pacific Earthquake Belt, Eurasian Earthquake Belt, etc. During a certain period of time, a certain area may appear concentrated. We said that there are many earthquakes in Sichuan, and we can only say that it occurs for a period of time. We say that there are fewer earthquakes in the East China and South China, but it cannot guarantee that the next hundred years. There must be no earthquake. "

Sun Shizhen said that from the perspective of earthquake research, this regularity is more obvious, but it is still difficult to scientifically explain these regularity phenomena.

(Source: China News Network)

【Edit: Shang Pei】

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