Blue Book: Guangzhou enters the turning period of aging and declining childization "dual acceleration"

Text/Yangcheng Evening News all -media reporter Zhu Shaojie

A few days ago, the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences released the "Guangzhou Blue Book: Guangzhou Social Development Report (2022)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book"). The Blue Book pointed out that Guangzhou has entered the turning period of aging and "dual acceleration".

The Blue Book pointed out that the average annual rate of aging in the past five years has increased by 9.45%, and the aging acceleration trend is obvious. The trend of accelerating the aging population of the household registration is even more significant. In 2020, among Guangzhou's household registration population, the population of 60 and over accounted for 18.27%, and the population of 65 and over accounted for 13.01%. Compared with international standards, compared to international standards. Guangzhou's household registration population is close to the stage of moderate aging.

According to the recognized standards of the international community, Guangzhou has entered the recognized threshold for aging society in the international community. However, compared with the country, the "younger" characteristics of Guangzhou's population are still obvious. In 2020, the average age of Guangzhou's permanent population was 35.4 years, lower than the 38.8 years of the country, and lower than Beijing and Shanghai.

Due to the implementation of the second child policy, a total of 25.338 million children 0-14 years old in the country have increased by 1.35 percentage points in the total population. However, with the release of the accumulation effect of the comprehensive second -child policy, the fertility stimulus effect of the second child fertility policy has weakened and the level of fertility has been reduced.

Similarly with the national situation, the number of children in Guangzhou has increased by 1.13 million in the past ten years. From the data of the past four years, after the second child in 2016-2017, the birth rate of the second child has increased significantly, but 2017- 2017- The birth rate of one child in 2019 is lower than the birth rate of the second child, indicating that the proportion of children's population is mainly due to the driver of the comprehensive second child policy.

It is worth noting that from the data of Guangzhou in the past four years, the married population has continued to increase.

From 2016 to 2019, the number of married and childbearing population in Guangzhou continued to grow. This situation is contrary to the trend of decreased population in the country, mainly due to the inflow of a large number of young people's population.

In the context of the current opening of the "three children", the continuous relocation of the married and childbearing population will bring further demand for services such as childcare, and challenge Guangzhou to accelerate the construction of a childlike -friendly society.

Huang Yu, the editor -in -chief of the Blue Book Executive and Director of the Institute of Social Sciences of the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, said that in the next five years, Guangzhou's permanent population will continue to grow, and will enter the turning period of aging and declining childization.

In the middle and long term, public services and real estate prices will be an important influencing factor affecting the development of the population. Guangzhou needs to accelerate the strategic adjustment of population service management. From "controlling population", "passive managers", "controlling people", "migration of migration", "migration of migration" to "attracting population", "dynamic management people" and "controlling people in the industry chain" "Integration development".

Source | Yangcheng Evening News • Yangcheng School

Responsible editor | Handuo

School pair | Pan Liling

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