[Cai Zhi Toutiao] The price of electric coal has continued to rise, can the downstream power plant be held?

Since the summer of this year, due to the large -scale high -temperature weather and economic recovery growth, the national electricity demand has continued to rise; at the same time, due to hydropower areas, the water is dry and insufficient, and the mining area continues to rain, which affects coal production. Electric coal supply guarantee continues to face greater pressure.

From August 30, the impact of high temperature weather has decreased slightly, the tension of power supply in the southwest has been effectively controlled, and the power supply of electricity is smooth and orderly. But followed by the pressure of thermal power, and the price of electric coal was at a high level. In the case of continuous supply of electric coal insurance in various places, coal prices have risen, and can downstream power generation companies still hold it?

Zhangjiakou Weixian Wind Power Plant. Photo by Jia Qiong

In August, thermal power supply volume achieved a historical breakthrough

In August, the country experienced a rare extreme weather in the country. A large -scale high -temperature drought weather appeared in the Yangtze River Basin, and 21 provincial -level power grid load hit a record high. In mid -to -late Jin and Shaanxi Mongolia's main coal mining areas and railways, heavy rain and heavy rains were continuously tested.

In August, the National Energy Group's daily generation volume exceeded 4 billion kWh for the first time. The history of monthly power generation reached 120 billion kWh, and the historic coal supply volume of thermal power exceeded 50 million tons.

Affected by the rainfall of the core mining area, the production capacity of 28 self -produced mines in the National Energy Group in August was limited, involving more than 290 million tons of production capacity. Under the strategic adjustment of the new channels for the supply of new channels for the supply of northern, Liaoning, and integrated water in the north of Ji, Chongqing and Chongqing, West Yannan Line, the National Energy Group in August Tons, including 46.94 million tons of self -produced coal, an increase of 5.07 million tons year -on -year, an increase of 12.1%. In response to the demand for power supply in Sichuan and Chongqing, an increase of 460,000 tons to the Sichuan -Chongqing area, an increase of 140%year -on -year. The average start -up rate of thermal power crew was 89.7%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from the same period. The thermal power units of 15 regional companies including Jiangsu Company, Hubei Company, Hunan Company, and Hainan Corporation have been stable, and the turnover rate remains 100%.

Coal has become the top priority of power supply and electricity.

Coal prices continue to rise

The increased demand for electricity coal directly led to the continued rise in coal prices.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 24, the prices of coal types across the country in mid -August have risen. Among them, the price of non -tobacco coal (washing in the middle of the washing, waved portion ≤8%) price was 1577.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 110.3 yuan compared to the previous period. /Ton, an increase of 7.5%; ordinary coal (mixed coal of Shanxi flour coal and block coal, 4,500 calories) price of 908.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.3 yuan/ton from the previous period, an increase of 0.9%; Large card) The price is 1013.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.3%.

Coal stocks in the capital market also outbreak together, "coal super crazy" may continue to interpret. In the early morning of September 1, the Shanghai index and Shenzhen index finger bottomed up. The coal plate in the market increased sharply by more than 5%. As of the afternoon, Zhengzhou coal power daily limit, Shaanxi coal industry approached the daily limit. The historical high; Shan Coal International rose nearly 8%, the coal industry and Shanghai energy rose more than 6%, and the energy sources of Yoshiyura and China Coal rose by more than 5%.

Picture source: upstream news

Recently, a number of semi -annual reports released by a number of listed coal companies one after another shows that the rise in coal prices has directly driven the company's performance improvement. China Shenhua's realization of net profit attributable to listed companies was 411.14 billion yuan, an increase of 58.1%year -on -year; Yoshiko Mineral Energy's net profit attributable to listed companies was 18.037 billion yuan, an increase of 198.54%year -on -year; China Coal Energy's real profit was 13.377 billion yuan in net profit of listed companies 13.377 billion yuan , Year -on -year increased by 75.7%; Lai'an Ringneng was able to achieve a net profit of 5.849 billion yuan in listed companies, an increase of 75.07%year -on -year.

In this regard, open source securities stated that coal winter storage is expected to open in advance. According to analysis, in terms of supply, the increase in new production capacity is still uncertain, the price of power coal at home and abroad has continued to be inverted, and the ban from the EU sanction of Russia's energy officially takes effect. Monthly enters the off -season of electric coal, but the steady growth policy and non -electrical coal during the peak season of cement chemical are still expected to stabilize demand. Winter storage is expected to open in advance, and the price of coal prices will continue to rise.

Guotai Junan also believes that before the supply and demand is reversed, the coal sector market will continue. In the case of sufficient coal supply, electricity is still missing, which has further valued the status of thermal power under extreme climate. From January to July 2022, the national thermal power investment increased by more than 70%year-on-year, corresponding to the improvement of the future demand for coal.

The downstream power plant burdens geometry?

Coal power is still the most important source of electricity in my country. Coal electricity produced 60%of the country's power in the installed proportion of less than 50%, and assumed more than 70%of its peak mission. In ensuring the safe and stable supply of electricity in my country, coal and electricity played the role of the bottom -to -guarantee supply and flexible regulation. It is the "pillar" of the current power system in my country.

Tianjin Guotou North Xinjiang Power Plant. Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

Under protecting the people's livelihood, power generation companies should basically send out.

The National Energy Group in August has exceeded 50 million tons of thermal power supply volume. Among them, the Ninghai Power Plant of the National Energy Group Zhejiang Company was 105 million kilowatt -hour on August 19, a single -day power generation high in the past ten years.

According to the First Financial Report, Zhejiang, the largest power generation enterprise in Zhejiang Province, had an average daily power generation in August for 26 consecutive days of over 100 million kilowatt -hours, a record high, and played a role in cleaning coal -electrical pillar pillar for Zhejiang Province's energy supply. China Resources Electric Power's generator crew "should be opened, should be paid together, and should be sent out." 79 of the 83 coal electrical units operated on the top of the Internet with a record rate of 95%. Power generation continues to rise, and under the situation of high coal prices, the pressure of power plants has increased greatly.

It is understood that the cost of coal -fired accounts for 70%of the operating cost of thermal power plant. According to the mid -2022 performance and fuel cost announced by China Resources Electric Power, in the first half of 2022, the average unit price per ton of coal coal of the subsidiary coal -fired power plant was 1135.2 yuan, an increase of 39.7%over the same period last year; 337.0 yuan, an increase of 39.5%over the same period last year.

"In the first half of the year, the unit price of the company's coal increased by 322 yuan/ton year -on -year, resulting in a loss of 2.027 billion thermal power business operations in the first half of the year, and profit decreased by 2.829 billion year -on -year." China Resources Power said.

According to the First Financial Report, a person in the central region of the provincial power company said that the main difficulties encountered in the protection of electrical coal procurement and reserves are still high in power generation. Although under the guidance of national policies, coal prices have been reduced, but in the long run, it is still difficult to sustain.

On the one hand, the responsibility of the power protection supply, on the other hand, is the dilemma of its own business, and most of the power plants are in such a tangling.

The country's continuous introduction of energy supplies and stability policies and measures

For the continuous rise in coal prices, the policy of maintaining stability is continuously increased. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "Notice on Further improving the Mechanism of the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism" (hereinafter referred to as "Circular 303") and announced on the 4th of 2022, and will be implemented on May 1.

According to article 303, from the perspective of the market operation of many years, the medium- and long -term trading price of Qinhuangdao Port (5500 kcal) in the recent stage is 570 ~ 770 yuan (tax included) See annexes in a reasonable range of transaction prices), and coal production, circulation, and consumption can remain basically stable, and the upstream and downstream industries of coal and electricity can achieve better coordinated development. Evaluate and improve the reasonable range in a timely manner.

The publicity of the medium and long -term transactions and the spot price for the 4th and long -term transactions of coal No. 4 stipulates a reasonable range. Among them, Qinhuangdao Port's water coal (5500 kcal, the same below) medium- and long -term and spot prices exceeded 770 yuan and 1,155 yuan per ton, respectively and long -term and long -term and long -term periods of Shanxi Coal. In the middle and long -term and long -term period of coal ore, the spot prices exceeded 520 yuan and 780 yuan per ton, respectively and long -term and long -term and long -term periods of the Monxi Coal Mining link, and the spot price exceeded 460 yuan and 690 yuan per ton, respectively. In the middle and long -term and long -term session, the spot price exceeds 300 yuan and 450 yuan per ton, respectively. If there is no proper reasons, it can generally be identified as a coaxing price. For the sale of coal other forms other than the port of water coal and pit coal, the reasonable cost of related circulation links can be deducted to the corresponding port price or the outlet price, and this will determine whether the price is reasonable.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated that Document No. 303 proposed a reasonable range of medium and long -term transaction prices in coal. Announcement 4 proposed the specific identification standard for raising prices in the coal field, which essentially clarified the reasonable range of coal spot prices. Two documents have constructed a closed -loop mechanism for coal prices to guide and regulate supervision, which provides clear guidance for relevant operators to operate in accordance with laws and regulations. It is an important policy guarantee for coal prices to operate in a reasonable range.

However, the current actual coal market is higher than this price. According to the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation, the comprehensive price of electric coal purchased by coal power companies in the first half of the year continued to be higher than the benchmark price, and the unit price of large -scale power generation groups rose by 34.5%year -on -year.

(WeChat public account "Caizhi Headline" comprehensive from: First Finance, Surging News, Upstream News, etc.)

Edit: Yuan Kai

School pair: Fenghua

Review: Gong Zimo

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