Will Jiang Wanan be "overtaking" by Huang Shanshan?丨 Taiwan a week

Recently, polls show that Jiang Wanan's election is a bit bad. He and the current deputy mayor of Taipei Huang Shanshan, who are regarded as the successor of Ke Wenzhe, are already small. And in the case of conducting a three -party PK with different Democratic Progressive Party candidates, there is a victory between Jiang Wanan and Huang Shanshan.

This poll also shows that although Chen Shizhong is still regarded as the most likely candidate for the DPP in Taipei, but now the scenery is no longer, and the polls have fallen to the third place. And if the DPP nominated Lin Jialong, Huang Shanshan would win Jiang Wanan. However, the gap between the three polls is very small, showing a trend of three -legged, making the Kuomintang's previous expectations of abandoning insurance.

The Kuomintang has always believed that Jiang Wanan, who has 45 % of the support in Taipei, can have a little bonus by relying on his handsome image. But now it seems that under the circumstances of the three parties, Jiang Wanan can only maintain 30 % of support, and cannot see any breakthroughs, and cannot steadily guarantee his election. Instead, Huang Shanshan has not been optimistic about before, to now the polls have been greatly improved, and the growth is obvious to all. Of course, it does not rule out that the DPP voters choose to support Huang Shanshan to prevent Huang Shanshan from being abandoned now without enough candidates.

Huang Shanshan was originally a Democratic Party, and was the love of Song Chuyu. He was borrowed by Ke Wenzhe as the deputy mayor. When I borrowed Huang Shanshan, because of the lack of communication, Ke Wenzhe and Song Chuyu were unhappy. Therefore, in order to avoid embarrassment, Huang Shanshan was unwilling to run as Ke Wenzhe's party. In order to avoid embarrassment on both sides, she intends to run as a non -party member. Ke Wenzhe once stated that she supported her approach.

Although this does have some controversy.

Huang Shanshan comes from the dark blue family. A brother Huang Shuguang served as the navy general on the island. Huang first followed the politics as a new party, and later transferred to the Democratic Party. Under the situation of gradually weakening the volume of the Democratic Party, in 2015, the Democratic Party and the DPP "blended". Tsai Ing -wen also requested the DPP members of the Democratic Progressive Party in the same constituency at the time. Huang Shanshan, which caused Gao Jiayu, who was planning to run at the time, was unhappy and made a big deal of the Democratic Progressive Party. But that election, Huang Shanshan was still in the election.

In 2019, Huang Shanshan was extended by Ke Wenzhe as the deputy mayor. Lin Guocheng, another Taipei city member of the Democratic Party, announced his retreat. The Democratic Party has nowhere to have no seats in the Taipei City Council. The Democratic Party is foaming. Huang Shanshan was not optimistic at first, but with the heating up in the Taipei epidemic, Huang Shanshan performed well in the epidemic prevention, and she was affirmed by Taipei citizens step by step. In the process of fighting against the DPP authorities, Huang Shanshan is also obviously more effective than Jiang Wanan, who lacks a stage, and condenses some of the intermediate voters of the DPP.

In contrast, Jiang Wanan, who has been optimistic, has faced three problems that cannot be broken.

The first is Jiang Wanan's origin. In fact, in the case of relatively large Pan -Blue forces in Taipei, Jiang Wanan was a descendant of the two Chiang Chiang. However, the problem is that in the face of the DPP's attack on the two Chiang, Jiang Wanan's descendants were a bit proceeding. The outside world feels that if this person can't or dare not maintain his ancestor, how can he still protect the interests of his voters in his camp.

Secondly, Jiang Wanan lacked a stage in this political offense and defense of epidemic prevention. Everyone see Chen Shizhong and Huang Shanshan every day, and Jiang Wanan was ignored without knowing it. In addition, Jiang Wanan's team also has no good municipal vision planning, so that Jiang Wanan can be inserted in the specific municipal topic.

The most troublesome is Jiang Wanan's personal character. In the past, this kind of politicians felt gentle and flattering, but now they will be comprehensively reviewed by the mobile Internet era. Jiang Wanan's positioning was blurred. After thinking about it, the attack was not the point. In many specific responses, Mu Na, lack of viewpoints, and uncertain positions. The media person Luo Youzhi said that Jiang Wanan's watching data on audio -visual media was very bad, which also shows that Jiang Wanan's talk is really not attractive enough. In the future, if Jiang Wanan cannot actively make up for these shortcomings, it will be difficult to win this election.

However, the Democratic Progressive Party is not optimistic. Chen Shizhong also had epidemic prevention, and defeat and epidemic prevention. Now the epidemic is repeated, the problems are constantly, and even various cases of disadvantages continue to emerge. But Chen Shizhong was obviously a little slack, with a "lying flat" attitude. Not long ago, he also confirmed, and even the entire epidemic prevention headquarters was spared. Earlier, Jiang Wanan and Huang Shanshan have been infected, and this election campaign in Taipei has also become a "confirmed dispute".

Wang Guogu (left) and Lin Jialong (right) (right)

In addition to Chen Shizhong, Lin Jialong, the person in charge of the Qiandao Transportation Department, who had stepped down by the Puyouma train accident, also actively won the DPP nomination and wanted to run in Taipei. Lin Jialong is also an important faction in the DPP. But the situation of this faction is not great now. Therefore, Lin Jialong is not only for herself, but also for his political space for his faction.

However, Lin Jialong's herself is very high, resulting in a very average relationship. When he was the mayor of Taichung, he was also a failure of re -election because of the failed relationship with the local relationship. He stepped down from the transportation department and took over his deputy kingdom material. All cultural and propaganda destroyed and re -produced to eliminate his influence. So this time Lin Jialong jumped up and jumped into various states to choose Taipei, but the Democratic Progressive Party's party department turned a blind eye.

Why doesn't Zhu Lilun nominate Zhang Yazhong Choose Kaohsiung?

Objectively speaking, Zhu Lilun, as the chairman of the Kuomintang, is responsible for the success or failure of the Kuomintang's local election this year. Therefore, it is reasonable and compliant to adopt the method of replacing the party's primary election and his own decisions to nominate all local candidates. The Democratic Progressive Party is also doing that, but it is also controversial. For example, Tsai Ing -wen nominated candidates for Taoyuan, Keelung and Hsinchu on the 18th. Among them, Lin Zhijian, the current mayor of Hsinchu, nominated in Taoyuan, also caused the bombardment of Zheng Baoqing, the local Democratic Progressive Party of Taoyuan, called the "secret room negotiation", and scolded Lin Zhijian to "airborne and run." In addition to Lin Zhijian's mayor in Hsinchu, he ran out and chose Taoyuan to not talk about it. The most funny thing is that in order to continue Lin Zhijian's political life in Hsinchu, the DPP leader Ke Jianming made great movement to the "bamboo and bamboo merger of bamboo and bamboo merger of Hsinchu County and city. "The farce. Now the plan is still hanging in the air, but Lin Zhijian, the starting figurine, ran away.

So objectively speaking, no matter who Zhu Lilun nominated, although it will cause a certain rebound, there is nothing particularly unreasonable. The problem is that Zhu Lilun and Tsai Ing -wen cannot compare. Tsai Ing -wen is a leader in Taiwan with resources and power. Who she nominated, if others are not convinced, they can only be convinced. Moreover, the supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party have forced the political forces in the party to be unhappy, and they must be united when they are united.

Zhu Lilun obviously lacks this authority. The Kuomintang's previous successful defeats have caused Zhu Lilun's leadership. The Kuomintang has no resources to dominate Zhu Lilun today. In addition, Zhu Lilun seems to be impatient to communicate with those powerful comrades in the party, making these nominations a media disaster after one after another.

Taoyuan nominated Zhang Shanzheng's unhappiness in all aspects. Miaoli nominated Xu Zhirong but was declined to talk. Recently, the Speaker of Hualien Zhang Jun was nominated by the Kuomintang. Zhang Jun threatened to run to the end.

The bigger storm lies in Kaohsiung. No one had to choose before, Zhu Lilun asked Ye Kuangshi and Lee Sichuan, who had been the deputy mayor, and Li Sichuan, who made it clear that he did not choose. Kaohsiung has no chance of winning, nor does it blame everyone to fight. But the more this situation is, the more the person who needs to be afraid of fighting and has strong combat power to come up with a burden, so many Blue Camp supporters are optimistic about Zhang Yazhong with strong ability to discuss.

Zhang Yazhong showed his willingness to choose after thinking for a while. As a result, after he stated, he immediately met Luo Zhiqiang's end in Taoyuan. In an interview, Zhang Yazhong said that the reason why he was planning to choose was because the Kuomintang's Kuomintang party department had done a poll and his own polls first. As a result, another Kuomintang poll was immediately reported on the media. Zhang Yazhong was far from the top. The first one was Ke Zhien. In fact, Ke Zhien and Kaohsiung have no relationship, and Ke Zhien has always had no willingness to choose Kaohsiung. Although it was later said that when the polls were fair, if the data was good, it was considered, but the attitude was always not as positive.

Ke Zhien

This made Zhang Yazhong, who was going to choose to be embarrassed. If you retreat, it seems very lustful, but if you fight for yourself, you will not be ignored by the Kuomintang. As for the Kuomintang polls questioned by Zhang Yazhong, the Kuomintang's polls have also become "Luo Shengmen". Huang Jianting, Secretary -General of the Kuomintang, said that it is not the outflow of the Party Central Committee, nor can it judge whether it is a poll made by the party department. Originally, Zhang Yazhong said that he would let his office director He Qisheng go to the Party Central Committee to ask Huang Jianting to provide polls for details, and the result was a punch on the cotton.

When Tainan nominated before, Zhu Lilun seemed to be more likely to believe in Chen Yixin. However, Chen Yixin had no influence and even the foundation in Tainan, so he finally lost to the local Tainan City Councilor Xie Longjie, which made a nomination storm finally landed safely. But after that, Taoyuan kicked Luo Zhiqiang. Kaohsiung avoided Zhang Yazhong. Xie, Luo, and Zhang are now the most acoustic political stars in the Kuomintang. They are also the most distinctive people in political party attributes and political claims. In particular, Zhang Yazhong has his own unique set of things in many claims, and it is also incompatible with Zhu Lilun's point of view. Zhu Lilun has no exception to these people.

Recently, Zhu Lilun hurriedly ran to the United States to openly announce the "big turn of the Kuomintang policy." Although I did not get any response, it can also be seen that Zhu Lilun wanted to claim the Kuomintang's route like the DPP. In the internal nomination, he excludes those who are positive and high -profile and even have some suspicious and anti -American characters on the position, which also reduces the hot spots in election campaigns. Taken together, this local election campaign planned by Zhu Lilun seems to be interested in avoiding ideological issues, and just wants to play a low -key election campaign, and then based on the lack of governance of the DPP The DPP is cheap.

Otherwise, it is really difficult to see what Zhu Lilun wants to do.

Author 丨 Xu Yi, special editor of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

Editor 丨 Zeng Zijin, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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