"Lithium King" shows muscles!How long will the lithium price increase by more than 119 times in half a year?

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.01

Under the market's attention, the reporter Shu Yajiang was exposed to the first half of the year on the evening of August 30. In the first half of 2022, Tianqi Lithium Industry realized operating income of 14.296 billion yuan, an increase of 508.05%year -on -year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 10.328 billion yuan, an increase of 11937.16%year -on -year. 47868.08%. It is worth mentioning that Tianqi Lithium was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2022, and officially opened a new journey to listing the "A+H". This semi -annual report is the first financial report disclosed by the company after the company's listing. Benefiting from the improvement of global new energy vehicles, the operating performance of Tianqi Lithium industry has grown rapidly. The semi -annual report shows that the company has repaid all CITIC Merchants M & A loans and other financial liabilities. As of the end of July 2022, its asset -liability ratio has been reduced to about 28%(unveiled), and the company has fully completed the "leverage" goal. The total production capacity of lithium chemical products in the mid -term planned exceeded 110,000 tons/year financial data shows that in the first half of 2022, lithium ore, lithium compounds and derivatives contributed operating income of Tianqi Lithium Industry 4.466 billion yuan and 9.828 billion yuan, respectively, a year -on -year increase of growth, respectively. 417.7%and 560.73%. According to Tianqi Lithium, the company mainly relies on shooting Hong Tianqi, Jiangsu Tianqi and Chongqing Tianqi to provide lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium lithium chloride and metal lithium products. Lithium projects and Suining Anju's annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate projects are in the stage of trial production or construction. Chongqing Tongliang has 2,000 tons of metal lithium projects in the planning and construction stage. The production capacity of Sen Lithium Essence reached 1.62 million tons/year, and the planned production capacity exceeded 2.1 million tons/year. In recent years, Tianqi Lithium has continued to strengthen the collaboration and cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. In the second quarter of 2022, the company successively signed a long -term supply agreement with Lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide products with China Innovation Airlines, Germany nano, and LG chemistry industries. At the same time, the company formally "official announcement" in the first half of the year will cooperate with China Innovation Airlines and Beijing Weilian in many fields such as battery materials to further strengthen the layout of downstream in the industrial chain. From the perspective of the industry, Tianqi Lithium industry believes that the lithium demand for recharging batteries will still be the main driving force of the lithium consumer market, and the rapid growth of the energy storage field (ESS) will also help drive the lithium demand. The performance of lithium listed companies is one of the most popular star sections in the A -share market. Oriental Fortune CHOICE data statistics show that in the first half of 2022, the performance of nine "lithium" listed companies in the non -ferrous metal sector achieved all high -speed growth of more than doubled year -on -year. Among them, the growth rate of Tianqi Lithium ranked No. 1 First, Rongjie, Tianhua Chaoping, and Tibet's net profit of the home of the maternity in Tibet also reached 4444%, 1023%, and 1018%, respectively. The high prosperity of the lithium industry is evident. Looking forward to the future, market participants are still optimistic about the development trend of the lithium industry in 2022. Qu Yinfei, a lithium industry analyst from Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have been raised in the near future, while the price of lithium in 2022 is "still rising." "From the perspective of the annual supply and demand forecast, there is still a certain difference in supply and demand in the lithium market. The new projects are limited to the lack of mineral end, and production cannot be full. With the support of the lower and cost, the lithium prices still rose room in 2022. "Wang Chikun, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of understanding, told the Securities Daily reporter that in addition to the global new energy vehicle industry, the demand in the field of energy storage is also being driven by the development of the industry. The effective time cycle of effective production capacity and the full release of the supply is fully released. The formation of valid supply upstream has "time stagnation". The demand for downstream stock preparation and procurement needs to be "advanced". It is expected that by the second half of this year, lithium salt will be in short supply. The demand for demand will maintain the price of the lithium industry -related materials to maintain a high level. China Post Securities believes that during the golden period of lithium companies in China, the future performance growth is the highest: "The current global lithium resources supply continues to be tight, while domestic lithium resources seriously depend on imports in Australia and South America. The profit of the industrial chain. This requires the role of domestic lithium companies to be the role of the sea god needle. Domestic lithium salt lakes, lithium Yunmu, Sichuan lithium mine and other companies will usher in the golden period of development. Growth is still the highest in certainty. "How long will the lithium price rise? Text | 新文 At present, the new energy vehicle industry chain is showing the embarrassment of polarization of performance: on the one hand, the upstream raw material supply has a sharp rise in business performance; on the other hand, the decline in the production of downstream battery production is declining, and the performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers will be connected with the performance Poor, even losing money. The root cause is the "crazy lithium price". According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation on August 29, the battery -level lithium carbonate rose 2,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was reported to 493,000 yuan/ton; the industrial -grade lithium carbonate rose 2,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was 481,500 yuan/ton; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; Lithium oxide rose 2500 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton. Compared with at the beginning of 2021, the average price of about 50,000 yuan/ton of the battery -grade lithium carbonate, in just over a year, the lithium price has soared to about 500,000 yuan/ton.

It is foreseeable that 2022 is the year of earnings of lithium resource suppliers. So will lithium prices continue to rise in the future? The answer is not. First, the amount of lithium resource reserves is sufficient, and the lithium price is suspected of speculation behind the rise. As we all know, after the state proposed the "double carbon" goal, it was more concerned about green travel. The traditional automobile industry was affected by this and began to transform to new energy, thereby pushing the sales of new energy vehicles. But it is easy to make a car and it is difficult to mining. The long mining cycle cannot keep up with the speed of car building, making the supply of lithium resources in short supply, and at the same time, lithium prices have risen. However, this does not mean that the reserves of lithium ore are not enough. Some securities firms even expect lithium resources to surplus slightly. According to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) in 2021, the world's proven lithium resource reserves of 22 million tons of metal lithium should be proven, corresponding to 117 million tons of lithium carbonate as a volume. The global lithium demand in 2020 was only 330,000 tons of lithium carbonate. From the above data, global lithium resources are not scarce. Behind the rise of lithium prices, the industry is suspected to have funds for hype. Second, the expansion of major manufacturers, and the shortage of lithium resources will slowly alleviate. In the case of sufficient lithium resource reserves, major lithium resource manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi -Tech and Shengxin Lithium Energy have announced their expansion. In addition, new energy battery manufacturers such as Ningde Times and new energy vehicle companies such as GAC Group also marched to lithium resources. It is believed that under the continuous expansion of lithium resources, it will gradually alleviate the problem of tightening the supply of lithium resource markets. Third, with the advancement of lithium lifting technology and the development of the recycling industry of lithium batteries, coupled with the emergence of other alternative technologies such as sodium batteries, various factors will affect the decline in the market's demand for lithium resources. In short, the rise in lithium prices does not have a long -term nature. With the adjustment of the market, the skyrocketing lithium prices will eventually return to its normal price. It is worth mentioning that the behavior of buying lithium ore crazy to invest in games, entertainment, education and other industries has set off a wave of investment, and it is recommended that investors and companies invest rationally instead of buying mining at high prices. For the new energy vehicle industry chain, only balanced and coordinated development is a long -term plan. The author recommends that upstream and downstream companies in the lithium battery industry have concluded lithium prices that both parties can accept through long -term agreement to achieve win -win cooperation and jointly maintain the stable development of the industrial chain. Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com