Brokers see the new economy in the past ten years ｜ Energy storage is an important part of the new energy revolution

In the past ten years, the boundaries of the new economy and traditional industry have gradually melted, and a number of new forces listed companies have been born. How does the new economic industry and enterprises complement each other? How will the future develop and evolve?

Zhongxin Jingwei ’s“ V View Finance Report ”column launched the [Securities Fan Fan Seeing the New Economy for Decade]. Each issue invited a brokerage analyst to interpret the development and changes of the new economic hotspot industry for ten years.

The guests in this issue are: Deng Yongkang, chief analyst of the new energy industry of Minsheng Securities Equipment.

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 31st (Fu Jianqing) China's new energy installation scale and power generation have been ranked first in the world for many years. Renewable energy sources represented by wind and photovoltaic power generation are "gorgeous transformation".

At the "Ten Years of China" series of theme press conferences, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that my country's power production capacity has improved rapidly, especially for wind power photovoltaic power generation. At the end of 2021, the total installed capacity of the country reached 2.38 billion kilowatts, doubled from 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 8.4%. Among them, the total of 635 million kilowatts of wind power photovoltaic and network installed machines was nearly 90 times in 2012.

"China is the fastest country in the world's fastest development of renewable energy."

Wind power, photovoltaic, and hot new energy concepts in the capital market, installed data also confirms the development prospects of the two concepts in China:

In terms of photovoltaic, IEA data shows that as of 2021, the world's cumulative installed capacity exceeded 940GW, of which China ’s cumulative installed capacity was 308.5GW; in the employees, IRENA statistics have reached 2.2 million people, while the United States is only 250,000.

In terms of wind power, GWEC data shows that as of 2021, the world's cumulative installed capacity reached 837GW, of which the cumulative installed capacity of the country reached 328.5GW, accounting for 39%of the world's total installed capacity; More than 50%.

"On the whole, China is currently one of the world's fastest development of renewable energy." Deng Yongkang told the Sino -Singapore Jingwei that from the perspective of the supply side, the world's major photovoltaic and wind power manufacturing industries are concentrated in the country; , "Sending, losing, distribution, use, storage" all aspects of supporting needs flourish.

Deng Yongkang pointed out that although China's renewable industry has started late compared with overseas, under the drive of top -to -bottom policies and bottom -ups, the photovoltaic and wind power industries have entered a high -speed development period under the top and bottom policy. Essence

In March of this year, the National Energy Administration issued the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" Modern Energy System Plan, which proposed that the proportion of non -fossil energy consumption increased to about 20%by 2025, and the proportion of non -fossil energy power generation reached about 39%.

Deng Yongkang said that to achieve the target of the proportion of non -chemical energy in the above -mentioned planning, the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power during the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period is expected to reach 90GW and 50GW.

"There is a certain support from the resources and the project side." Deng Yongkang further explained that as of now, the energy planning of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period in many provinces and cities across the country has more than 600GW. In terms of specific projects, the first batch of large -scale base bases are advancing smoothly, and the second batch of projects have gradually begun construction. Wind power and photovoltaic demand continues to improve.

Centralized and distributed photovoltaic will go hand in hand

Photovoltaic power generation is actually a type of solar power generation. The optical vulgar effect of using the semiconductor interface to directly transform the light energy into electrical energy.

In recent years, the disputes about the higher economic benefits of centralized photovoltaic photovoltaic and distributed photovoltaic have not stopped. The difference between the two is mainly to build a place: distributed photovoltaic is generally built on the roof and vegetable greenhouses to make full use of space; Centralized photovoltaic is large -scale in deserts, Gobi and other areas.

Therefore, the conveying distance becomes the most intuitive difference. Distributed photovoltaic "locally connected", the line loss is relatively low, and the local power is directly supplemented for local and nearby users. The centralized photovoltaic power generation passes through high -voltage grid, and the electricity is transported layer by layer as a higher voltage level to achieve "Western Power East Transmission".

However, concentrated photovoltaic has the advantages of short construction cycle, strong environmental adaptability, low operating costs, low space restrictions and easy expansion of capacity.

So, will the development of centralized and distributed photovoltaic be obvious?

"As the two important starting points for the increase in the scale of photovoltaic installation during the Fourteenth Five -Year Plan period, centralized and distributed photovoltaic is in hand." Deng Yongkang pointed out that both are currently in a high -speed development stage.

Deng Yongkang explained that distributed photovoltaic benefits benefited from the promotion of the pilot development pilot development pilot development pilot development pilot development pilot development of carbon peaks and carbon carbon. At the same time, the current reform of the power marketization is continuously advancing, and the electricity prices in many regions have risen sharply. Enterprises are facing the pressure of high power consumption costs. The distributed photovoltaic is based on the "spontaneous use of self -use, residual power access" model. The power generated by the formation photovoltaic enjoyment, and the willingness to build a distributed photovoltaic in enterprises is expected to increase.

In terms of centralized aspects, Deng Yongkang introduced that the country is also vigorously promoting the construction of large -scale base bases. Large base projects are mainly concentrated in the desert, Gobi, salt alkali beach and other areas. The land cost is relatively low. Electricity has cost advantages. The southwestern region focuses on Yunnanchuan, creating a batch of water -scene complementary projects, forming a project with regional grids as support, transmission channels as traction, and efficient consumption as the goal. In addition, cities such as Yichang City and Tianjin in Hubei also actively planned several million kilowatt -level base projects in accordance with the local ecology. Energy storage is an important part of the new energy revolution

With the construction of the country's promotion of new power systems, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic energy continues to increase, and the randomness, intermittentity, and volatility of new energy power generation have caused the power generation to match Flexibility put forward new requirements.

The significance of the energy storage system is to solve the contradiction between the continuity of power supply and the interruption of power consumption demand, and to achieve the stable operation of power on power generation, power grid side, and user side.

Deng Yongkang said that in the scenario of industrial and commercial and households, energy storage can cut peak -cutting valley and peak valley arbitrage through the scheduling of electrical energy on time dimensions. It can also save the cost of electricity for end users.

Regarding future development, Deng Yongkang pointed out that energy storage is an important part of the new energy revolution. It is still in the preliminary stage of industrialization. It is still two key factors for the growth of the growth of the energy storage industry: the short -term driving force- Policy -oriented, dependence on subsidies; medium and long -term driving force -business model and economy.

Deng Yongkang said, "At present, we believe that energy storage has ushered in a clearer policy inflection point, and it is expected to enter the stage of high -speed growth."

Which companies are expected to take off?

Wind data shows that in the A -share market, only 95 companies in the application of photovoltaic power generation, wind power, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment in the application of the two -level industry.

Although in terms of performance, more than 70 % of the company's net profit was less than 1 billion yuan in 2021. However, as a growth stock, the above 95 companies performed well in the secondary market. As of July 31, the average increase of 4.83%during the year. Among them, Junda and Science and Technology Board New Army Yuneng Technology of Science and Technology Board in 2021 rose more than 100%. In addition, in the concept of energy storage, 42 companies shown in Wind, Xiangxin Technology, Paineng Technology, and Shen Ling Environment ranked among the top three with 137.39%, 98.71%, and 89.04%.

During the same period, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 10.62%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 17.44%, and the GEM index fell 19.63%.

Deng Yongkang suggested that in combination with the development of the industry, you can pay attention to the following aspects:

First, the curtain of photovoltaic battery film technology changes is officially unveiled. In the virtuous cycle of "forming production -large -scale effect reduction -continuous expansion", companies that enjoy technical dividends are expected to usher in "market share increase+enjoy technology The dual advantage of premium ";

Second, the energy storage industry is also accelerating the prosperity of the energy storage industry while the high -speed growth of photovoltaic demand. The inverter manufacturer is expected to benefit from the high prosperity of the two tracks of photovoltaic and energy storage;

Third, in terms of auxiliary materials, the technical changes are small and the barriers are deep. It is expected to benefit from the high growth of photovoltaic;

The fourth is to benefit from the high -growth and high -value seaside and pipe pile -related companies related to the sea breeze. The market position and the leading parts of the market position and large -scale supporting capabilities, and the entire machine factories with leading technical level and cost control capabilities.

Deng Yongkang pointed out that in the early days of the development of the industry, it was excellent to have the overall view of the overall situation and forward -looking, to be able to timely inspect the industry in time, and can lead the industry's change and make cakes bigger. As the development of the industry has matured, companies that can earnestly be able to take good on internal skills such as refined production, supply chain management, and cost control, and actively find new growth curves. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

Copyright Copyright Copyright, without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use it in other ways.

Pay attention to the official WeChat public account of JWVIEW (JWVIEW) to get more elite financial information.

- END -