[East look at the west] What are the risks and opportunities to China in the energy crisis?

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 31st (Song Yafen) In order to spend the upcoming winter in order to peace, Europe is purchasing natural gas regardless of cost, and the price of natural gas in Northwestern Europe has risen to the highest level in history. The electricity prices of the two major European economies in Germany and France have recently set a historical record.

The victims of the European Energy Crisis are not only European countries, but Japan, South Africa, and Pakistan have also implemented a power -limiting policy recently. Some countries that are unable to withstand high -priced natural gas have begun to restrict imports.

Will the European Energy Crisis be transmitted to more countries?

Although European high -priced reserve energy sources are to meet their own needs, will it be objectively driving the rise in international energy prices, thereby transmitting the energy crisis to more countries?

In this regard, Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd., said in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei: "With the arrival of winter, the European energy crisis is indeed a factors that have a greater impact, and global energy will be affected. It is more certain, but it does not necessarily spread to the world. "

Li Xunlei believes that from the current situation, it is expected that European energy conditions will be better than market expectations.

According to the German energy news website IWR reported on August 30, as of August 28, the natural gas storage level of EU member states was 79.94%, which was close to the target of 80%on November 1.

Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, also said that other countries will be affected by a little bit of the European energy crisis, but it will not be great.

Lin Boqiang explained that most countries imported natural gas are generally point -to -point and transported through the pipeline. The LNG (liquefied natural gas) transported by the ship is generally a long -term contract, and the flexibility is relatively high. Therefore, unless a country depends on LNG, it will not have a great impact. For example, China also imports a large number of LNG every year, but energy supply has not been greatly affected, and it will not have a great impact on the economy. What is really affected may be some gas -used chemical industries.

Lin Boqiang emphasized that seeing the impact of the energy crisis is related to the energy structure of a country. Among EU countries' primary energy structure, oil and natural gas account for about 60%, and they mainly depend on imports. This proportion of China is less than 30%.

What market opportunities are there in the European Energy Crisis?

There will be a market if there is demand. In the case of tight natural gas supply in Europe, many countries are increasing the use of alternative energy, such as heat pumps and photovoltaic.

According to media reports, as the UK is about to double the upper limit of home electricity bills in October, the local roof photovoltaic industry ushered in the most powerful sales frenzy ever. Compared with the summer two years ago, the number of solar panels installed every week was three times. The draft EU repowreu plan proposed that the roof photovoltaic power generation will increase by 15TWH in 2022. In addition, Europe has always been China's largest photovoltaic component export market.

Will this give a greater development opportunity for China's photovoltaic industry? Li Xunlei pointed out that China's photovoltaic market share in the global market is the largest, so the global energy shortage is conducive to China's photovoltaic exports to a certain extent.

According to the data of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the first six months of 2022, the total export of Chinese photovoltaic products was about 25.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 113%year -on -year. Among them, the export volume of photovoltaic components was 78.6GW, a year -on -year increase of 74.3%; the export volume of the component was US $ 220 billion, a year -on -year increase of more than doubled.

However, Lin Boqiang believes that although photovoltaic installations in various countries have grown rapidly, because the proportion of energy structures is small and some trade barriers are existing, the benefits for the photovoltaic industry may not be as great as possible.

Li Xunlei suggested that Chinese enterprises can strengthen cooperation with European countries, such as strengthening cooperation with countries that have a greater influence with the energy crisis. Italy is also the first G7 country to join the “Belt and Road” initiative.

"However, in the case of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and the depreciation of the renminbi, it is necessary to prevent the European energy crisis and even the European debt crisis leading to the depreciation of the RMB, dragging down the Chinese economy." Li Xunlei said. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

This article is original by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, and the copyright of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may be reprinted, extract or use in other ways.

Editor in charge: Wang Lei

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