How long will lithium price rise?

At present, the new energy vehicle industry chain is showing the embarrassment of polarization of performance: on the one hand, the upstream raw material supply business has risen sharply; on the other hand, the decline in the commercial performance of downstream battery production is declining, and the performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers is not good, and even the performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers is not good, even Lost. The root cause is the "crazy lithium price".

According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation on August 29, the battery -level lithium carbonate rose 2,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was reported to 493,000 yuan/ton; the industrial -grade lithium carbonate rose 2,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was 481,500 yuan/ton; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; hydrogen; Lithium oxide rose 2500 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton. Compared with at the beginning of 2021, the average price of about 50,000 yuan/ton of the battery -grade lithium carbonate, in just over a year, the lithium price has soared to about 500,000 yuan/ton.

It is foreseeable that 2022 is the year of earnings of lithium resource suppliers. So will lithium prices continue to rise in the future? The answer is not.

First, the amount of lithium resource reserves is sufficient, and the hype is suspected of hype behind lithium prices. As we all know, after the state proposed the "double carbon" goal, it was more concerned about green travel. The traditional automotive industry was affected by this and began to transform to new energy, thereby pushing the sales volume of new energy vehicles. But it is easy to make a car and it is difficult to mining. The long mining cycle cannot keep up with the speed of car building, making the supply of lithium resources in short supply, and at the same time, lithium prices have risen. However, this does not mean that the reserves of lithium ore are not enough. Some securities firms even expect lithium resources to surplus slightly.

According to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) in 2021, the world's proven lithium resource reserves of 22 million tons of metal lithium should be proven, corresponding to 117 million tons of lithium carbonate as a volume. The global lithium demand in 2020 was only 330,000 tons of lithium carbonate. From the above data, global lithium resources are not scarce. Behind the rise of lithium prices, the industry is suspected to have funds for hype.

Second, the expansion of major manufacturers, the shortage of lithium resources will slowly alleviate. In the case of sufficient lithium resource reserves, major lithium resource manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi -Tech and Shengxin Lithium Energy have announced their expansion. In addition, new energy battery manufacturers such as Ningde Times and new energy vehicle companies such as GAC Group also marched to lithium resources. It is believed that under the continuous expansion of lithium resources, it will gradually alleviate the problem of tightening the supply of lithium resource markets.

Third, with the advancement of lithium lifting technology and the development of the recycling industry of lithium batteries, coupled with the emergence of other alternative technologies such as sodium batteries, various factors will affect the decline in the market's demand for lithium resources.

In short, the rise in lithium prices does not have a long -term nature. With the adjustment of the market, the skyrocketing lithium prices will eventually return to its normal price. It is worth mentioning that the behavior of buying lithium ore crazy to invest in games, entertainment, education and other industries has set off a wave of investment, and it is recommended that investors and companies be rationally invested instead of a hot follow -up at high prices. For the new energy vehicle industry chain, only balanced and coordinated development is a long -term plan. The author recommends that upstream and downstream companies in the lithium battery industry have concluded lithium prices that both parties can accept through long -term agreement to achieve win -win cooperation and jointly maintain the stable development of the industrial chain. (Correct moon)

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