Russia tighten the "valve", and Europe "qihuang" intensified

Recently, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. said that the "Beixi No. 1" natural gas pipeline will stop the gas supply for 3 days from August 31.

As a major pipeline that transports natural gas to many countries such as Russia to Germany, "Beixi No. 1" is disconnected again. For Europe, which is in the "earthquake" of the energy crisis, it is tantamount to worsening. Whether to spend the upcoming autumn and winter.

Stop supply again

Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. said recently that due to the only operating compressor will be maintained and maintained, the "Beixi No. 1" natural gas pipeline will be suspended from August 31st to September 2nd. After the maintenance is completed, if there is no technical failure ", the" Beixi 1 "pipeline will restore the current gas supply, that is, 33 million cubic meters per day.

This is the second time the "Beixi 1" pipeline has recently "broken flow". From July 11th to 21st, the pipeline stopped for 10 days due to annual routine maintenance.

Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine in February this year, Europe has followed the United States to impose sanctions on Russia and tries to embrace Russia through natural gas to embrace Russia, causing strong countermeasures to Russia. In half a year, the storm surrounding the "Beixi 1" pipeline continued.

In mid -June, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. will be reduced to Germany's natural gas supply by the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline to Germany on the grounds that the Siemens Company of Germany did not return the turbine in a timely manner. Wanlian meter. Since then, affected by another turbine of the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline Poltova Press Station, the daily gas supply daily supply has dropped to 33 million cubic meters, which is about 20%of the maximum gas supply.

Russia has increasingly tightened the "valve" of the "Beixi 1" pipeline, making European countries highly relying on Russian natural gas to be trapped in the "gas shortage" predicament. Nowadays, the "Beixi 1" pipeline is broken again, adding new pressure on European countries that are seeking to supplement natural gas stocks before winter, and also make it more worried about the energy crisis that may face this winter.

Active countermeasure

"Russia hopes to get rid of the passive state of Russia's natural gas embargo in Europe through the game with Europe on the" Beixi 1 "pipeline issue, and adopt more proactive countermeasures to Europe." The European Research of the China Institute of International Issues Director Cui Hongjian analyzed in an interview with a reporter from the People's Daily Overseas Edition that Russia was looking for an opportunity to tear off a "front" on the West on the West, and to create more contradictions within European countries to create more contradictions within European countries , Make it uniformly uniformly sanctional policies for Russian energy.

According to reports, Cuili, deputy speaker of the German Federal House, recently called on the "Beixi No. 2" natural gas pipeline to "fill the natural gas storage facilities for winter." In July, seven mayors on the largest island of Germany also believed that the German federal government was urging the German federal government to fully consider that "its policy may cause damage to the German people and the German economy", allowing the import of Russia natural gas through the "Beixi 2" pipeline imported pipelines Essence

"In the case of" Beixi No. 1 "that cannot be supplied normally, the start of 'Beixi 2' became an alternative, but this is inconsistent with the long -term goal of the EU permanently cutting Russia's natural gas supply." Cui Hongjian said.

Zhao Ke, an associate professor at the International Strategic Research Institute of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, analyzed the Overseas Edition of the People's Daily that after the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Russian -Europe relations have entered a state of comprehensive opposition. Russia hopes to reduce or suspend the supply of natural gas, forcing European countries to change its stance on the Ukrainian issue, and slow down the pace of "energy to Russia" in Europe.

"Recently, many European countries have followed the United States and provided multiple rounds of military assistance to Ukraine, which is a direct stimulus to Russia. In addition, European countries are currently accelerating the filling of natural gas inventory and preparing for this winter. 'Qi supply is a period of back to European countries for U -military aid and the energy reserve plan. "Zhao Ke said that it is worth noting that Russia is based on the maintenance equipment and did not directly say that natural gas should be disconnected, which indicates that it indicates that it indicates that it means Russia still has room for rotation on this issue. The main purpose is to put pressure on Europe, prompting it to make concessions on the Ukrainian issue.

Yan Dong is coming

The person in charge of the German federal energy regulatory agency said recently that due to the influence of the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline again, Germany will be challenged When the target of 95%of gas storage is "impossible", Germany will spend a difficult winter.

Shortly after Russia announced that the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline was maintained again, European natural gas, coal and electricity prices soared in Europe and refreshed historical records.

"The stop supply of the" Beixi 1 "pipeline will trigger market panic on the one hand. On the other hand, it may cause Germany to be unable to complete the gas storage target as scheduled, which will further increase Germany's fiscal burden and people's livelihood pressure." Cui Hongjian said.

On August 4, the German government agreed to levy natural gas surcharge to consumers from October to help natural gas suppliers respond to rising natural gas prices. In this regard, analysts of Bloomberg research institutions believe that as the price of natural gas continues to rise, Germany levies surcharges on family natural gas consumers, and the price pressure will soon fall to ordinary people.

Agence France -Presse quoted economist analysis that as the center of the European industrial chain, the "qi shortage" situation that Germany may face will also have a chain reaction to the entire Europe.

"Many industries in Germany are distributed in other European countries, and they are the biggest net contributors to EU budgets. If Germany is blocked and fiscal expenditure has risen due to natural gas shortage, then it will inevitably affect the economic development of other European countries and its Contribution to the EU's finance. "Cui Hongjian said. Zhao Ke pointed out that whether it is the current inflation rate of European countries, or the market's expected European economic expectations will become pessimistic in the future, various phenomena show that the dispute between Russia and Europe has a serious blow to European countries. "At present, the established goal of Europe '‘ energy to Russia ’has not changed, but it wants to win more time and achieve it in a more smooth and relaxed way, instead of making the European economy and people’ s livelihood a painful price. ”

"For European countries, the most important thing is to find a balance between ensuring their natural gas reserves, responding to Russian countermeasures, and soothing domestic people. Setting up and the people's living costs have increased significantly, then Europe may usher in more challenges to Russian energy sanctions. "Cui Hongjian said. (Reporter Yan Yu)

Original title: Russia tighten the "valve", Europe "qi shortage" intensified (global hotspot)

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (10th edition of August 30, 2022)

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