Yang Bowen Cui Hongjian: The road of "enrolling" in Ukraine and other countries is uneven

On June 23, the European Union officially awarded the qualifications of Ukraine and Moldova into the alliance, and promised to give Georgia a "prospect of entering the alliance." The three kingdoms were included in the EU track. The result of the game of all parties in the background of the Ukraine crisis and the strong changes in European geopolitics, which will have a complicated and far -reaching impact on European relations and regional situations.

On June 11, 2022, Feng Delin, chairman of the European Commission, visited Ukraine and held talks with President Zelei.

The product of the fierce game of multiple parties

The issues of the three countries such as Ukraine are closely related to the expansion of the EU, the development direction of the Three Kingdoms, and the surrounding Russian environment. It is a product of political, security and diplomatic games. In 2004, after the European Union accepted the ten countries in Eastern Europe, it was unable to expand eastward in the short term. At that time, in the case of hoping to continue to impact in Europe and avoid geopolitical confrontation with Russia, the EU turned to handle the former Soviet countries such as Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Armeni, and Azerbaijan through the "Eastern Partnership". Relations mainly use economic cooperation and other means to attract these countries to accept their political and economic standards. In 2014, the EU and Russia's competition in Ukraine in the political and economic fields continued to intensify, which eventually led to the Crimean crisis. Although the European Union strengthened its politics after the crisis, it reached a "contact agreement" with the above -mentioned three countries such as Ukraine to support its internal pro -Western forces and promoted its domestic reforms based on EU rules. Stand with caution.

The outbreak and continuous Ukrainian crisis this year has caused the European Union to disagree on the issue of the Three Kingdoms. Poland, Romania, Czech, Slovakia and Baltic countries, which are on the "anti -Russian front", actively promote the "fast enrollment" such as Ukraine. Enhance the right to speak in the European Union. However, France and Germany and other western European powers are cautious, not only worrying that "fast entering the alliance" such as Ukraine will undermine the current procedures of the European Union, further deteriorate and Russian relations. Disappointment. After the interests and demands of all parties experienced a fierce game, the European Union finally adopted a relatively balanced position: although it was decided to give the eligibility for the national candidates, the emphasis on the process of entering the alliance must meet the procedures and standards, and refused to give the Three Kingdoms "quickly entering the alliance". special treatment.

For the three countries of Wu, Mo, and Ge, joining the EU is an alternative choice after joining NATO. After the 2008 Russia War and the Crimean crisis in 2014, the two countries abandoned the traditional strategy of seeking balance between Russia and the West, and fell to the West in an all -round way. The Constitution hopes to seek NATO's security protection and EU economic support. Although there is still a fierce struggle between "pro -European" and "pro -Russian" in the country, Moldova has continued to intensify the concerns of the Russia's use of the left bank of the Deginster River. In the twice elections in 2020 and 2021, Mo's "pro -European faction" comprehensively controlled, and began to accelerate closer to the West under the influence of public opinion and the recent influence of Russian energy disputes.

The desire to urgently join NATO in the Three Kingdoms has adopted a fuzzy balance strategy. On the one hand, NATO stated that it adhered to its "portal opening" policy and continued to strengthen its military penetration and influence on the three countries, and on the other hand, it refused to include the three countries into the formal agenda. In the case of lack of clear prospects in the contract, the Three Kingdoms seemed to use the EU as a replacement goal, so as to show the west to the West -politically and economically hoping to "integrate into the West" prospects, hoping to get indirect security protection from NATO Essence In this process, Russia's position in Ukraine and other countries has also changed and adjusted. At the end of 2013, the Russian side publicly opposed the signing of the "contact national agreement" with the EU. At that time, the Yanukovic administration in Ukraine's administration fell down due to the difficulty of maintaining a balance between Russia and Europe, causing a crisis. With the outbreak and continuous upgrading of the Ukraine crisis this year, Ukraine announced the official application to join the EU in early March, and Russia also stated its opposition. However, after the European Union's internal acceptance of Ukraine became mainstream, the Russian side tried the situation and showed a flexible position on the issue of Ukraine and other alliances. Putin publicly stated that due to the EU's "economic and social alliance", Ukraine and other countries joined the "not constituted a security threat to Russia." The initial goal of Russia's special military operations to Ukraine was to get rid of the "Western track", but the continued war and the changes in the situation of Finland and Sweden's application for joining NATO will allow Russia to respond to NATO and Northern East expansion as priority matters. Although Russia officially criticized the European Union to engage in "unlimited expansion and political and economic slavery of neighboring countries", it has not made a substantial fierce reaction so far.

The road to enter the alliance is still long

The European Union's promise to the status of Wu and Motor's candidates and the "EU prospects" of the EU is more to show their political support for the Three Kingdoms. In view of the European Union's reduction procedures, the more harsh standards of the alliance, and the current situation of the Ukrainian crisis, there is still a long way to go from the two countries to become a candidate country to the formal enrollment.

First of all, there is a large gap between the economic, political and social status of Wu and Mo's economy, politics and society. From the perspective of economic data, in 2021, the per capita GDP (GDP) per capita (GDP) was only US $ 4835.6 and US $ 5314.5, which was far lower than the average level of US $ 38234.1. Although the European Union has successively launched a "in -depth and comprehensive free trade zone" in 2016, and gradually exempts trade tariffs on some goods in accordance with the commitment, the fields involved are limited and the cancellation of tariff progress is slow. At the same time, the trade between the European Union and the two countries is obviously unbalanced. The EU is the largest trading partner between the two countries, accounting for 39.5%and 52.2%of the total trade between Wu and Mo. 56 major trading partners. In addition, the two countries have a large gap between trade rules, public procurement, state -owned enterprise specifications, and judicial systems, especially their political oligarchs and judicial corruption issues have always been criticized by the EU. Secondly, the expansion of the EU will still take the priority direction of the Sibergan country, which means that the process of Wu and Mojin Alliance is difficult to achieve "curve overtaking". Wu and Motor's qualifications have been obtained by the EU candidate country to make most of the Westbargan countries who have been waiting on the alliance. If the process of entering the alliance is accelerated, it will further exacerbate the disappointment of these countries, which may even lead to the EU in the West Bargan region. The influence decreases. Among the westbargan countries, North Malaysia and Heishan applied for the Alliance as early as 2005 and 2008. Serbia (2009), Albania (2009), and Bhomina (2016) also submitted applications, but in addition After the opening of the negotiations in the Alliance in 2012 and 2014, the European Union did not agree to start negotiations with North Malaysia and Albania until March 2020. Therefore, while the EU is qualified for the eligibility of Wu and Motor, they have to strengthen their soothing to the Westbargan State. The Chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin, the Chairman of the European Council Michel and the German Chancellor Tsumin have recently visited the Westbargan State many times, and constantly promised to enter the alliance. The latter starts the negotiations of joining the league. Under the situation of the EU and French powers, the Sibergan countries still regarded the Westbargan countries as the priority of the process, the process of Wu and Mojin was difficult to live in the process of entering.

Third, the long -term situation of the Ukraine crisis makes it difficult for Wu and Moan to enter the League overnight. The European Union officially set up the prerequisite for "conflict suspension" for Ukraine, which means that the subsequent process will be closely linked to the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. Although Ukraine announced the first time that the candidate national qualification will open to the league negotiations in 2023, the European Union will not be led by the Ukraop in the advancement of the specific procedures. In the case of differences within the European Union, some member states who have a negative position against Wu and Motor Alliance will inevitably formulate the three nations in the Eastern European region and the actual interests in Eastern Europe. The timetable of the alliance has exerted a substantial impact on the process of entering the alliance.

In the end, Georgia's "EU prospects" promised to be more mentally comfortable, and the goal of entering the alliance was out of reach. The current ruling party fights fiercely with the opposition party, and the government unilaterally abolish the political reconciliation agreement reached by the EU's appearance and the opposition. In recent years, the government has implemented "balanced diplomacy" and has close relations with Russia. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis this year, Ge did not want to follow up with the EU sanctions against Russia, and the economic and trade relations with Russia continued to increase. The European Union ’s phenomenon of“ democratic retrogression ”of the current internal affairs and“ secretly helping Russia ”in diplomacy are deeply dissatisfied. With the unchanged policies of the internal and external policies, it will not really be considered in consideration.

Complex and profound impact

In the context of Russia and Ukraine's contradictions and the persistence of the geopolitical competition for all parties, Wu and Mockear are incorporated into the European integrated orbit not only changing the geopolitical pattern, but also have a profound impact on the regional economic structure and security structure.

First of all, as the European Union once again extended the "enrollment" into the former Soviet country, the EU candidate country and Russia's "bordering again" will promote long -term tension between European and Russian relations. The conflict between the left bank of the East Ukraine and the Crimean, the Moldova's Deyinster River on the left bank involved in sensitive issues such as history and ethnicity, and it is difficult to solve it in the short term. Wu and Mo's entry into the EU track means that the above -mentioned conflicts will be largely evolved into a contradiction between Russia and Europe. Russia adopt a hidden attitude towards the two countries to enter the alliance, but it will not give up with the EU in political economy in terms of political economy. The long -term confrontation of Russian -Europe relations is unavoidable.

Secondly, the process of Wu and Motor Entering the League may change the power structure between the EU's internal "new" and "old" Europe, affecting the priority of the EU policy and decision -making procedures. As a "regional country" with a population of 42 million people and a more close relationship with the EU and more close relationships with the member states of Central and Eastern Europe, Ukraine's opening process will affect the balance of power within the EU -Central and Eastern Europe, led by Poland, The state will use this to enhance the right to speak in the European Union. The security concern of the East will become a long -term factor affecting the EU policy. Western European countries such as France, Germany, and Italian will lead EU affairs and affect EU decisions to face a more complex environment. In addition, the European Union's opening up at the same time on Ukraine, Mo, and Sibergan countries will make it difficult for the EU to form a unified position under the current decision -making mechanism. The European Union has proposed the reform measures of "integration in stages" to cope with the above issues, including the right to give some member states in a timely and reversible manner based on the reform of the candidate country. , Alleviate its pressure to enter the alliance quickly, while promoting the reform of the decision -making mechanism within the European Union. Third, the expansion of the European Union to Wu and Mo can further expand its economic map. Acceptance of the two countries can meet the EU's demand for agricultural products, minerals and energy to a certain extent. As early as May, the European Union provided Ukraine with a macro fiscal aid loan of 9 billion euros, and issued the "Ukrainian Relief and Reconstruction" document. As well as a comprehensive plan that integrates economic reconstruction, it focuses on emphasis on the EU climate, environment and digital policies and standards in the direction of the EU, and sets conditions such as democracy, the rule of law and anti -corruption in order to lead the development process of the Ukraine and curb Russia's economy to the two countries' economies of the two countries. influences. At the same time, the European Union will also strengthen coordination with Ukraine and other parties, such as the connection with the Ukraine reconstruction plan with the "three -stage reconstruction" measures to jointly determine the cooperation field of Ukraine to meet the EU standards.

Yang Bowen is an assistant researcher at the China International Institute

Cui Hongjian is the European Institute of China International Issues Research Institute

Director and researcher

This article is published in "World Knowledge", No. 16, 2022

Editor in charge: Yinyin

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