China Merchants Securities: Overseas energy and electricity prices have risen or helped my country exports over the annual export of annual exports

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 26. The Macro team of China Merchants Securities issued a research report on the 26th that overseas energy and electricity prices rose or helped my country exports over the annual export.

The research report of China Merchants Securities Macro Team pointed out that since the epidemic in 2020, countries have implemented loose monetary fiscal policies to stimulate the economy. Still high. From the perspective of energy structure, the EU, the United States and other economies have used natural gas power generation. As the price of coal and natural gas rises, the price of electricity has also risen rapidly.

China Merchants Securities macro team believes that if energy prices rising, metal products, chemistry, coke, refined oil and nuclear fuel, and transportation equipment will be greatly affected. Specifically, energy prices have risen by 50%, and China's basic metal and metal products and chemicals and chemical products industries are the most affected, and the cost of input will rise by 13.5%and 13.1%, respectively. Input costs such as transportation equipment, basic metal and metal products, electronics and optical equipment in Germany will increase by 38.8%, 12.4%, and 10%, respectively.

In response to the significant rise in energy prices, my country has passed measures such as commodity confession and other measures to reduce the cost pressure brought about by the rise in overseas energy prices. At present, domestic power coal, natural gas, and electricity prices are significantly lower than overseas. In August 2022, the average price of power coal of the European Union reached 233.96 US dollars/ton, an increase of 94.43%year -on -year. After being converted in RMB in 2022, the EU power coal price was about 1.67 times that of China. Essence At the end of August, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other national electricity prices reached 600, 630, 600 euros/MWh, and converted to about 4.1, 4.3, and 4.1 yuan per kWh.

Which industries in my country are exported or benefited? According to the macro team of China Merchants Securities, from the perspective of two clues, first, which exports of the European Union are falling rapidly? Second, which export products in my country are competitive?

On the one hand, with the peak of electricity consumption in the second half of the year, the EU's high energy consumption industry may have suspension of production. Data show that the EU's chemistry and petrochemicals, food, beverages and tobacco, machinery, paper products, steel and other industries are at the forefront, which is basically corresponding to the current EU's industrial and reduced production. EU ships and floating structures, railway vehicle track devices, metal products, paper products, chemical and chemical products, and miscellaneous products are rapidly declining.

On the other hand, except for external needs, the fundamental factor that determines exports is the competitiveness of product trade. my country's miscellaneous products, textile products, non -metal products, electromechanical and components and other industries are still outstanding. Trade competitiveness in industries such as transportation equipment has continued to improve. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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