The south dry and north flood, this summer, God took down the map?Nanxin University expert interpretation: next year's temperature map may be "positive" back

This summer left a deep impression on too many people: the temperature of the south exploded, and the droughts that came; the north was a heavy rain pouring, and even the flood prevention early warning was turned on. Drought and north flood, really "God" took the map? The reporter interviewed Professor Luo Jingjia, Dean of the Climate and Application Institute of Nanjing Information Engineering University. Luo Jingjia told reporters that "South Drought and North Water" is one of the typical performances of the La Nina incident, but don't worry too much about it. Next year's temperature map will be "positive".

"La Nina" has not been "nest" for three consecutive years, so this summer was hot

This is undoubtedly the highest frequency vocabulary that appeared in meteorological news this summer. Compared to "Lamina", many readers may be more familiar with the word "Elnino phenomenon". It is a pair of climate "CP" and La Nina, which often appears in turns. Professor Luo Jingjia introduced that the La Nina incident originated from the temperature changes in the East Middle East Pacific Sea. The southeast Xinfeng blows away the hot surface seawater in the eastern Pacific, which causes the cold seawater to turn on the bottom of the bottom. The large -scale cooling of the central and eastern ocean surface temperatures in central equatorial Pacific Ocean will affect the tropical atmospheric circulation, which will affect wind and rainfall.

Generally, the La Nina incident occurs every three to five years, but sometimes it may occur for several consecutive years. The "La Nina incident" we encountered this summer is a "Lao Lai" who is unwilling to move for three consecutive years. Since 2020, we have been reluctant to leave. Luo Jingjia introduced that the "triple" Lamina has only happened twice in the past 40 years. It appeared from 1983 to 1986 and 1998 to 2001. Experts analyze that in the context of global warming, the tropical Indian Ocean, Atlantic and Western Pacific have faster heating. Essence

Calm, it is not necessarily so hot next summer

The impact of the La Nina incident on my country's climate, including the north of the main rain belt of summer, the rain in North China to the river, and the southern precipitation is too small, that is, the so -called "south and north waterlogging", which is also the "map in the popular definition of citizens. Against it. " The probability of low temperature in the central and eastern regions in my country is higher.

In fact, this phenomenon did not happen this year. In the summer of 2021, the main rain belt position in my country has appeared north of the summer main rain belt. The rainfall is 1.6 times more than North China, and the northwest is 70 %. West China Autumn Rain is abnormal, and the rainfall is nearly 90 %. According to the information of the National Climate Center, this year, this situation still exists. This summer, the main rainyst areas are in northern my country, and the average precipitation in the southern region is less than that of the year.

Especially the drought and high temperatures of Sichuan -Child and other places have worried many people. Will such a phenomenon appear next summer? Luo Jingjia said that from the trend of decades or hundreds of years, global warming is the general trend, but the annual changes in temperature will be affected by multiple factors. In addition to the El Niini incident and the La Nina incident, it also includes the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. In the influence of the sea temperature in the sea area, there is an uneven change in the ocean temperature. "It is also possible to reduce the temperature next year. It is also possible. Floods broke out in the Yangtze River area in 2020, and that summer is not so hot."

Will it be cold this winter? Still a warm winter!

The "frozen hands and frozen feet" in the winter of 2021 made many people remember it. The old people often say "how hot in summer, how cold it is in winter" once again on the table. What will it be like this winter, will it still "freeze your hands and froze"? Luo Jingjia said, not necessarily. Once La Nina phenomenon develops, it may indeed cause a large fluctuation of the atmospheric circulation again, and East Asia will be relatively cold. However, with the increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, the influence of climate warming and the La Nina incident will be "neutral". Therefore, East Asia's winter will not be colder than in previous years, and it may even be warmer. "The absolute value of temperature, the season of late autumn and early winter, everyone will still feel the power of the cold wave, but in the overall trend, the possibility of warm winter is greater."

Prediction of climate abnormalities, scientists have been able to forecast 24 months in advance

The reporter learned that the National Natural Science Foundation of China Climate System Forecasting Basic Science Research Center was officially listed at Nanjing Information Engineering University in December 2020. The climate system prediction of the basic science research center of the basic science research center can be for the climate situation in the next two years For targeted predictions, the prediction accuracy of the "El Niuno" phenomenon can already be increased to more than 80%. "Which month and where this year will fall in heavy rain, the possibility of flooding or drought occur, and can make a relatively high -precision prediction." Luo Jingjia told reporters, "Reference to our predictions, residents can avoid abnormal weather, disaster prevention departments, and disaster prevention departments. You can also take relevant preventive measures in advance. "

Through this system, the El Nino phenomenon can be predicted in the next two years, and the accuracy rate is as high as 80%. Compared with the international forecast of six months earlier, this has taken a big step and is a leading position. At present, only the development of Luo Jingjia's team internationally provides real -time prediction results in the next two years.

Yangtze Evening News/Zi Niu Journalist Yang Tianzi

Video provides China Meteorological Bureau

Edit: Qin Xiaoyi

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