Expert: China's steady economic fundamentals will form an important support for the renminbi

[Global Times reporter Ni Hao] Faced with the strong rising in the United States dollar index, non -US major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and Korean won have "defeated", setting the lowest point of 10 or even 20 years in a row. The appreciation of the US dollar in 2021 also began to fall in April this year. Facing the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, the US dollar continues to strengthen market expectations. Can the renminbi hold this round of pressure? Experts interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times on the 24th believe that there is no basis for the renminbi to continue to depreciate, and China's stable economic fundamentals will form an important support for the renminbi.

On August 23, the US dollar index was slightly recovered, but it was still in 20 years. On the 24th, the US dollar appreciation power continued. As of press time, the US dollar index was reported at 108.68, and the 20 -year high since 2002. So far, the US dollar index has risen nearly 14%. The Fed's continuous rate hikes supported the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, leading to collective declines in other global currencies. According to the "Global Times" reporter's observation, the euro has been in a decline since the US dollar for more than a year, and has continued to decline after the exchange rate parity has recently appeared. As of the press release on the 24th, the euro fell to 0.9941 against the US dollar, which was still the lowest level in 20 years.

In 2021, the RMB, which was better than the dollar in 2021, has recently declined. On August 23, the 6.86 and 6.88 marks fell in the shore and offshore RMB plates, respectively, and both fell to the low position in the past two years. However, as a whole, the RMB has a relatively strong exchange rate for other currency. According to Bloomberg, the RMB exchange rate index of the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center measures the performance of RMB 24 currencies at the level of 2022. Renminbi has greatly appreciated the euro, yen and won.

Although facing the strong rise of the US dollar index, most of the voices in the industry believe that the renminbi does not have the foundation of long -term depreciation. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategic Master Zhu Chaoping said that the appreciation of the US dollar has also been affected, but compared with other currencies, the RMB has received more support, because traders bet on the Chinese economy will have a long -term performance.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that at present, the pressure of Chinese cross -border funds has increased, and the two -way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate may increase. The basis of depreciation. In terms of economic fundamentals for the important decisive factor of the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar, China's economic growth and the decline in the decline in the US economic growth have not changed. China's economic recovery is more obvious in terms of marginal changes, which is conducive to the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate. As a big country, China has a degree of macro -control and the micro market mechanism is valid. It continues to adhere to normal monetary policy. In the next few years, it is still expected to become the highlights of global economic growth and the envy of the market. In the middle and long term, it will form an important support for the RMB exchange rate.

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