Why does the Yangtze River Basin "fall off the flood season"?Will the food output this year be affected?Experts interpret one by one!

The large -scale high temperature drought is shrouded in the Yangtze River Basin. Right now, the situation of the south and north flood floods still happen.

On August 19, 2022, Poyang Lake Duchang Xinmiao Dam Water continued to drought, and the area of ​​Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in my country

According to the information released by the China Meteorological Administration on August 19, since August, there are many rainfall weather in the north. 50 % to twice, more than 2 times the situation, and 23 national meteorological stations have exceeded the historical extreme value.

However, the precipitation in the southern region is completely the opposite. Red Star reporters have learned from the China Meteorological Administration that since July 1 this year, Jiangnan, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Sichuan -Chongqing and other places have less precipitation, high temperature, and rapid development of meteorological drought. According to monitoring, on August 18th, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, western Hubei, most Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, most of Tibet and other places in the middle and above Drilling.

Affected by less precipitation and continuous high temperature, the Yangtze River, which is already in the main flood season, has the lowest water level recorded records; Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake "enter the dead" time in advance; The Shanghai Yangtze River Estuary is rare in summer, and the water storage of small reservoirs in some areas is serious ...

Since June, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is 30 % less than the same period of the year, and there are no rainy days in some areas exceeding 20 days.

What is the specific situation of the drought in the Yangtze River Basin this summer? Guo Guangfen, deputy director of the Wuhan Regional Climate Center, told Red Star Journalists that since June 1, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is 325.4 mm, which is 30 % less than the same period of the same year (469.7 mm). Second young;

At the same time as the decrease in precipitation, the number of high temperature days also plays a side effect on the drought in the Yangtze River Basin. According to Guo Guangfen, the average temperature in the Yangtze River Basin was 27.1 ° C, which was 1.8 ° C higher than the same period (25.3 ° C); the number of high temperatures was 28.9 days, which was 15.7 days than the same period (13.2 days); the stations with a record of the highest temperature breaking record reached the record reaches. 202, accounting for 30%of the number of watersheds.

With the high temperature and rainy weather, the water level in the Yangtze River has set a record low since it has recorded.

Public information shows that as of 18:00 on the 15th, the water level in Hankou Station in the Yangtze River was 17.22 meters, and the water level in Wuhan section of the Yangtze River was the lowest in history since the hydrological record. In Jiangsu, due to the water and continuous high temperature and rain in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the water level of Nanjing Station of the Yangtze River has fallen by about 3 meters from early July to the present, and this situation rarely appears in the main flood season. In addition, the average daily daily reduction of about 100 million cubic meters per day since August 1, the water storage storage of Hehu Library in Anhui Province, and 90 % of the precipitation than the same period of the year.

According to Guo Guangfen, since July 1, the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was 143.2 mm, which was 40 % less than the same period of the year. It was the smallest since 1961. Since August 1, the Yangtze River Basin, Wujiang, and the Yangtze River in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the least in history, and the surface rainfall is less than 20 mm, and the dry flow of the middle reaches is less than 10 mm.

The test data shows that the water level of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake are 4.5-6 meters lower than the same period of the year, all of which are the lowest since the actual test records.

Guo Guangfen said that as of now, there are no rainy days in some areas of the Yangtze River Basin for more than 20 days; most of the high temperature days of most high temperatures in the basin exceeded 18 days, and the high temperature days in the middle and lower reaches of the basin exceeded 30 days. In response to the development of drought in the Yangtze River Basin, on August 11, the Ministry of Water Resources launched the four emergency responses of drought defense. On August 18, the Central Meteorological Observatory also issued the first meteorological drought yellow warning this year.

In the next two weeks, the drought defense situation of the Yangtze River Basin is still severe.

"In the main flood season, the phenomenon of large -scale severe drought in the upper and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle and lower reaches of the entire basin." Guo Guangfen told Red Star News that since 2000, there have been many drought incidents in the Yangtze River Basin in my country. , 2011, 2013 and 2019. Among them, in 2006, it was also a high -temperature drought in the entire basin, and the worst drought was Sichuan and Chongqing.

In Guo Guangfen's view, this year's high -temperature drought in the Yangtze River Basin showed a retransmit on the whole, which has the characteristics of long duration, extensive influence, strong strength and extreme extremes. It is reported that the rivers and rivers are obviously small at present, and the water level continues to decline. The water level of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake are 4.85 ~ 6.13 meters lower than the same period of the year, all of which are the lowest since the actual test records. The water body area of ​​Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake was reduced by 75%compared with June, and the water storage of small reservoirs in some areas was seriously insufficient.

Since July, the amount of water in the Yangtze River is 20 % to 80 % less than the same period of the same year. High temperature has caused 66 rivers in Chongqing, and 25 reservoirs have dried up.

So, can the drought in the recent basin alleviate? According to Guo Guangfen, according to forecasts, except for the west and northern parts of the Yangtze River, the upstream of the Han River, and the central part of the river in the next two weeks, there will be no obvious rainfall in the rest of the Yangtze River Basin. The drought defense situation of the Yangtze River Basin is still severe.

On August 18, 2022, the dried cracking map of Chongqing Changshou Hongqi Reservoir Dam was dried up. According to the visual Chinese Red Star journalist, it was also learned from the Central Meteorological Observatory that it is expected to be in the next 14 days (August 19th -September 1st). 20 ~ 50 mm, the local area has 70 ~ 100 mm; the cumulative rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 15-30 mm, and the local area is 35 ~ 50 mm; the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is generally less than 20 to 50 %.

At the same time, the temperature of the Yangtze River Basin is significantly high. Before August 25th, the Sichuan Basin to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River continued to high temperature. The maximum temperature was 35 ° C ~ 37 ° C, some areas were 38 ° C ~ 40 ° C, and the local area exceeded 40 ° C; 26 From the beginning of the day, there are still high temperature weather in some areas of the Yangtze River Basin, but the scope is reduced and the intensity has weakened.

Why does the Yangtze River Basin "fall off the flood season"? Expert: high temperature blessing, reduced precipitation, typhoon activities weakened

Liu Weiping, deputy minister of the Ministry of Water Resources, said on August 17 that according to meteorological predictions, the Yangtze River Basin will still maintain high temperature and rain in the next week. Raining and water in August will also be small, and drought may continue to develop.

The Yangtze River Basin, which should have ushered in the flood season. In response, Guo Guangfen responded to Hongxing News that in July just in the past, it was one of the hottest three July since the global meteorological records. This year's extreme high temperature process occurred in the background of the global subtropical high -pressure abnormal atmospheric circulation.

Global climate warming is the big background of this round of high temperature. Guo Guangfen pointed out that global warming has increased the frequency of high temperature heat waves and increased strength. In particular, a large -scale continuous high temperature weather occurred in the northwest of my country, southwest, and North China to South China. Therefore, global warming is a large background of abnormal high temperature in the Yangtze River Basin.

In addition, Guo Guangfen believes that the abnormal high pressure of the subtropical high pressure is the most direct and most important reason for drought. Guo Guangfen explained that the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure was significantly stronger than the same period of the same year, stable and maintained for a long time, and the control range was wider after merging with the mainland. Especially since August, the strength of the high -voltage center has increased rapidly, including the control range of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its north, and it has affected high -temperature weather above 40 ° C in the Yangtze River Basin.

Under high temperature, the temperature increase effect is obvious. Guo Guangfen said that the heating and high pressure control prevailing sinking air flow is very conducive to the ground temperature and dry air, making solar radiation easier to reach the ground. Since the plum, the Yangtze River Basin has often been clear in the sky, and the ground temperature increases rapidly, resulting in continuous high -temperature weather presented in a strong form.

In addition, this year's typhoon activity has also weakened compared to the long -term. Guo Guangfen proposed that the typhoon intensity formed near the sea in my country is relatively weak, and the influence is southern. It is mainly in the South China Sea and South China. The number of typhoons is obviously small, which is not conducive to the retreat and break of the subtropical high pressure. High temperature weather.

According to Observer Network reports, Xu Xiaofeng, president of the China Meteorological Service Association and former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration, also recently pointed out that local drought conditions occur almost every year, but this year has a large range of droughts. This is mainly because the atmospheric circulation is abnormal, which has continued to be high temperature. In addition, the rainfall of the Yangtze River Basin since July has decreased significantly, which has caused the phenomenon of "anti -dead during the flood season".

What will the Yangtze River River drought bring to the lives of the people? Experts: Drinking water, affected cultivated land ...

The decreased precipitation of the basin and the continuous development of drought have a greater impact on food production. According to the Ministry of Water Resources on the 17th, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui 6 provinces (cities) have a drought -drought area of ​​12.32 million mu, and 830,000 people and 160,000 large livestock are affected by drought supply.

At the same time, Chongqing's high -temperature drought resistance work a press conference stated on the 17th that Chongqing had 66 rivers, 25 reservoirs dried up, 881,000 people affected, and the people with difficult drinks reached 269,000.

On August 18, 2022, the town of Changshou District, Chongqing City, the water picked by the villagers with the irrigation station was watered by the fruit tree. According to IC Photo

In this regard, Guo Guangfen also responded to Hongxing News that in mid -to -late August is the critical period of the production of autumn grains and autumn harvest crops in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. However, the continuous high temperature and thermal damage are superimposed, resulting in the strong (pod) rate and grain weight of the crops such as medium rice, corn, and soybean, increased the cotton bud bell, decreased, premature aging, and affect yield.

It is reported that most of the first season of rice in Sichuan, Chongqing and other regions in the southwest has begun to grout strongly, and some of them have entered the mature period and maturity period. A small part is in the dumping period. Droughts can lead to a reduction in strong and thousands of grains, which is not conducive to the formation of rice output in one season.

Similarly, the first season of rice in the Jiangnan area located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is mostly in the period of pregnancy to the flowering period. Some of the precocious varieties are in the real period of grouting. Water sources are affected by high temperature heat damage in areas, but some Wangtiantian and the end of the irrigation area are severely drought.

Guo Guangfen told reporters that since August 11, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui in the Yangtze River Basin has expanded from 9.67 million mu to 12.32 million mu. The main droughts are the end of the irrigation district, hills and "Wangtiantian" of the 6 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Basin.

The world is at the crossroads of drought management. Experts: It is necessary to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation system in my country, and the water system is abundant. Many important rivers across multiple provinces. But in the context of climate change, the river in my country has been greatly affected. Whether it is a strong drop or drought, it has a serious threat to the safety of the lives and property of the people along the river.

The "Drought Drought Report in 2022" states that drought has a profound, extensive and underestimated impact on global society, economy and ecosystems. Since 2000, the number and duration of global drought have increased by 29%, and the world is in the "crossroads" of drought management.

"If the global warming of 2100 reaches 3 ° C, drought loss may be five times. By 2050, drought may affect the population of more than three quarters of the world. It is estimated that there will be 4.8 billion to 5.7 billion people each year. Living in a water shortage area, and currently this number is 3.6 billion, "Guo Guangfen said.

It can be seen that in the context of extreme events, especially drought disasters, how to correctly cope with it is an unavoidable issue.

In this regard, Guo Guangfen pointed out that in order to control global warming, it is necessary to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This requires the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, energy structure, industrial structure, and excavating the development potential of clean energy such as wind energy and solar energy.

At the same time, Guo Guangfen said that while reducing emission reduction, climate toughness must be enhanced, the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation system must be improved, and the risk management mechanism of climate change must be improved.

On the other hand, it is also necessary to improve the basic monitoring system of disaster prevention and mitigation of extreme disasters and high -affecting industries, hydrology, and geology, strengthen the research on the mechanism of affecting the influence mechanism of extreme weather and climatic events, improve the ability Defending mechanisms, disaster prevention and mitigation, disaster and relief organization systems and institutional systems, establish a census and risk zoning system for natural disasters, and do a good job of natural disaster risk census.

Finally, it is necessary to improve the emergency plan for comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation, establish a disaster risk management system, and promote the establishment of a disaster insurance system; enhance the emergency response capabilities such as aviation emergency rescue, emergency materials reserves, and refuge places; Improve the emergency mechanism, including the establishment of a pre -disaster warning system, a disaster response system, and a post -disaster recovery system.

Red Star reporter Yang Yuxi Zhang Yanliang Beijing report

Responsible Deng Yiguang

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