Lu Hang: The rotation of the "New Half Army" is rhythmic, should you stick to it or the position?

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 18th: The rotation of the "New Half Army" rotation is rhythm. Should I persist or adjust my position?

Author Lu Hangzhong Canada Fund's active rights and interest investment department electronic researcher

After the "Mao Index" and "Ning Group" became popular, in 2022, the investment circle created another new hot word- "New Half Army". "New Half Army" represents the three major industries with the most hard -core technology attributes in China, and it is also the three most popular tracks in the market in the near future: new energy, semiconductor and military industry.

The "New Half Army" long -distance running ability is excellent, and the short -term explosive power is also very amazing. In the past March, the SCI Semiconductor Index has risen by 17.24%in the past month, becoming one of the most dazzling stars in A shares.

Since the end of April, new energy, military, semiconductor and other popular tracks have rotated significantly. The author believes that the reason why funds favor the "new semi -army" is mainly because these industries have sufficient market space. From the perspective of technology and new energy, technology and new energy are usually disruptive innovations, so it is easy to produce larger market opportunities.

The same thing about new energy, semiconductor and military industry is that high growth, huge future space, and high technical content. The difference is that the industrial trend is different. New energy is more biased towards growth, and currently rely on the G policy to drive; semiconductor has reflected obvious cycle attributes, relying on demand terminals; military industry relying on government investment drives, and the supply chain pattern is highly stable, the most competitive pattern is the most competitive pattern. Excellent, but performance uncertainty is also the greatest.

In terms of semiconductor sector, the preliminary semiconductor sector is weak. On the one hand, it is subject to periodic factors. From the global perspective, downstream demand declines, and semiconductors are in the seventh round of recession cycle in history. On the other hand, the deeper reasons are the continuous mismatch of the phased and demand of the supply, and the epidemic has enlarged the impact of the cycle at different time periods. Recently, the information of the semiconductor industry has more catalyzed, and it has formed a strong stimulus on the stock price. However, from the fundamental point of view, the downstream is still in the destocking stage. It is expected that the decline will continue until the end of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023.

In terms of the new energy sector, from the domestic perspective, the goal of China's double carbon will not shake, and the acceleration of new energy transformation will become larger and larger. Grab. From the perspective of worldwide, new energy also carries the mission of slowing the greenhouse effect and giving industrial changes to reshape opportunities. It is not only an environmental cost, but also an opportunity for the restructuring of industrial structure and the re -revival of growth momentum.

In terms of the military sector, the current strategic game of China and the United States has intensified the strategic game of the Taiwan Strait. Looking forward to the next five years, focusing on the century -old struggle for the founding of the army, the military industry needs is full, and the core assets of A shares are expected to continue to share the industry's growth dividends. Considering the advantages of industry prosperity and demand, looking forward to the second half of 2022, the military industry is expected to obtain further excess returns.

Among the "New Half Army" sector, semiconductor is focused on the medium term. The logic of the cycle reversal usually has a strong interpretation. The time of the superimposed level of the stock price and the industrial cycle is dislocated. The earliest may be in the fourth quarter of 2022. The stock price is expected to first reflect the end of the cycle to bottom and rebound. In the long run, we will focus more on energy. The reason is that the energy revolution is the basic change of the bottom of society, and long -term dimensions are a very certain direction.

For investment in growth industries such as "New Half Army", the first thing is to choose the right direction, that is, the industry first, and attach importance to the first advantage and competition pattern. Secondly, we must continuously study the model of overturned innovation in the growth industry, determining that most of the good investment opportunities come from technological changes.

It is worth noting that the subversive innovation model of growth stocks is destined to be very large, and the adjustment of the stock price will be very severe. The author recommends that during the investment process, investors must study and understand the development and technological development of the industry, and the other is to control the retracement. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

This article was selected by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute. The copy of the work produced by the selected work, the copyright of the work, is not authorized by any unit or individual. The views involved in the selected content only represent the original author and do not represent the view of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei.

Editor -in -chief: Sun Qingyang intern Zhou Sijing

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