How can consumer vouchers boost the role of consumption performed by hot review?

On August 15, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the total retail sales of consumer goods in July was 3587 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

As one of the "three -driving carriage" of the national economy, consumption is of great significance to boost social needs and plays a basic role in steady growth. How to further expand domestic demand and promote consumption? Under the current economic situation, the decision makers of various places are tested.

The issuance of consumer coupons has become one of the highlights of consumption in many places. The author has rough statistics. Since this year, 23 key cities across the country have issued consumer coupons, ranging from one million yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan, with a total expenditure of about 4 billion yuan. In the second half of the year, according to the plans to boost the consumer market in various places, there are still many consumer coupons on the way. It is hoped to use the "four or two pounds" multiplication effects to pull several times the consumption recovery and even increase.

There are estimates that the government's consumption subsidy for each investment of 1 yuan can drive a new consumption of more than 3.5 yuan. However, at present, consumer coupons are issued in different cities, and the effect of leverage is not consistent.

Looking at the "KPI" of the nuclear sales ratio, the consumer coupon sales rate of Ningbo and Changsha reached about 95%. Hangzhou (second phase), Nanjing (first phase) and other places are wandering around 70%. The consumer coupon issued by Wuhan, Taiyuan, and Yinchuan has just exceeded 50%. The official website of the Hefei Municipal Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer coupon sales rate of some cities in the past two years. Ningbo, Shenyang, Shaoxing, and Urumqi issued consumer vouchers in April 2020, and the nuclear sales ratio was below 50%, of which Urumqi's nuclear nuclear The sales rate is as low as 6.9%.

In addition to the nuclear sales rate, in the summary of the consumer coupon driving effects, it is often visible to "directly leverage consumption", "total consumption consumption" and "direct consumption multiplication". However, there are also doubts that consumer vouchers overlap with consumer activities and holiday holidays. For the achievements of "consumption driving ratio of 969%" and "prying the amount of consumption 20 times", how much contribution of consumer vouchers contributed in it, and how to calculate? In particular, some consumer demand was originally needed to complete. Consumer coupons reduced a certain cost, but it was difficult to stimulate more consumption. For example, the consumer coupon at the gas station, people deposited money that was originally used for refueling, and replaced the consumer coupons issued by the government.

These doubts are temporarily pressed for the time being. In a certain time, consumer vouchers can indeed be quickly transformed into real purchasing power, "helping" consumption of residents and stimulating demand. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the local governments that consumer coupons should be summarized in a timely manner to avoid discounted consumer coupons due to the limitations of rules design.

From the perspective of consumer groups, according to the portrait of consumer vouchers published in many cities, consumers who use consumer coupons are mostly aged 30 to 45, and there are fewer people over 50 years old, with limited coverage. Therefore, when Beijing issued a new round of catering consumer coupons, it improved a type of "exclusive consumer coupon for pension and disabled". The elderly and disadvantaged groups did not need to receive it in advance.

There are also such problems in the supply side. Commercial supermarkets and catering are the two major sales scenarios of consumer coupons, but the consumer field that has been impacted by the epidemic is far more than that. The good place is that compared with consumer coupons in the past two years, there is an obvious trend in the first half of this year -the fields of supporting nuclear sales are getting wider, and cultural tourism, home appliances, automobiles, housekeeping, sports, home furnishings and other industries have appeared. The setting of special consumer coupons, also the use of special consumer vouchers such as Hainan Islands Duty Free, Tsingtao Beer Festival, Hunan Night Economy and other special consumer coupons, and more departments, associations, financial institutions, and platform companies have also joined the ranks of issuing consumer coupons. For example, on August 11, the National Film Bureau issued a notice of issuing 100 million yuan of viewing consumer coupons, attracting the audience to return to the theater again.

The author believes that the stimulus effect of consumer vouchers needs to be treated rationally, and it is constantly iterating. If all consumption containing consumer coupons is counted as leveraged by consumer vouchers, it will overestimate the stimulus of consumer vouchers and exaggerate the role of consumer vouchers. Furthermore, some places will be blindly followed up and cozy. If the role of consumption is not as expected, it will increase the burden on the local finance that is not abundant.

From the perspective of the recovery of macroeconomics and cities, consumption plays a "stabilizer" in the "three driving carriages". It is still the policy point of policy force to stabilize the economy to expand domestic demand.

If you want to play the positive role of consumer vouchers to boost consumption, on the one hand, you need to continuously iterate the design of consumer vouchers. Shenzhen Luohu District has adjusted 4 consumer vouchers issued mechanisms this year, with the nuclear sales rate of big data feedback as a reference, and dynamically optimized the value of consumer coupons, vouchers, discount rates, validity periods, frequency issuance, and continuously improve the experience of consumer coupons. The purpose of leverage more consumption.

On the other hand, big data that needs to be used for consumer vouchers and the precipitation of the process of consumer vouchers, and analyzes these data from shallow to deeply, including but not limited to identifying changes in consumer emotions, master the operation of related industries and fields, diagnose the supply and demand of supply and demand parties. Matching the situation ... Let the issuing consumer vouchers become a incision, touch the timely and real market, and provide decision -making reference for the formulation of supporting policies -short -term optimization can help enterprises' rescue policies, which can promote the quality of related industries for a long time Increase efficiency to achieve the goal of stable economic growth.

Daily Economic News

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