Rhine is in a hurry!What is the severe drought in Europe?Intersection

The Rhine, the largest river in Western Europe, originated in the northern foot of the Alps in Switzerland, and the northwest flows through Liechtenstein, Austria, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. Finally, it is injected into the North Sea near Rotterdam, the Netherlands. It is one of the busiest rivers in the world.

In the town of Kobu in the middle of the Rhine, there is an ancient water level measurement station. Any captain who enters the upper reaches of the Rhine will refer to the water level recorded here. On August 14, its water level value stopped at about 34 cm, and only more than 20 cm left from the lowest value of history. In the Bengen area upstream of the Rhine, a stone bridge leading to the small island has been revealed, and the rebar and boats that were sinking decades ago also reappeared.

Under normal circumstances, July and August are very humid months in the Rhine region. There are many rain and high water levels. But at the moment, after a few waves of extreme heat waves and arid weather, the Rhine's water level in the local area is approaching the lowest value of history! To this end, Andreia, a researcher at the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, said that Europe may suffer about "the worst drought in 500 years"!

High temperature and low rain have continued to lighten several major waterways in Europe. Not only the Rhine, but also affecting the Bobo River in Italy, the Luxal River in France, and the Thames in the UK ... So why is this drought that swept Europe so "fierce"?

On August 9, 2022 local time, the Lval River is very low, and some places can even walk through

NO.1 [Cause]

Extreme high temperature is the culprit

Since the summer, especially in July, high temperature weather has appeared in many places around the world. The heat waves that have been encountered once in a century rashly, and the temperature in more than 40 ° C. The highest temperature in Paris, France reaches 40.5 ° C; the temperature in some areas of Portugal and Spain reached 47 ° C; the temperature in many British temperatures broke through the historical extreme value. Britain announced its first extreme high -temperature red warning in the country's emergency state and issued a history. The World Health Organization stated that European heat waves have killed more than 1,700 people alone in Portugal and Spain alone.

On August 6, 2022, local time, Spain, Billylus Montez, the local reservoir was severely drought, and sheep ate grass along the dry river bed of the Guadiana River

The extreme high temperature process occurred in the background of the global subtropical high -pressure abnormal atmospheric circulation. Cai Yingning, a senior engineer of the Central Meteorological Channel, said: "Recently, the northern hemisphere subtropical high -pressure high -pressure is extremely powerful, almost around the earth for a week, and only a significant break in the area near India. Under the influence of factors such as the high -pressure and high pressure of the mainland, under the influence of the atmospheric clear air radiation, sinking temperature, and the flat flow conveying, large -scale continuous high temperature weather occurred. "

Extreme high temperature leads to "devastating wildfires" in France, Spain, Portugal and other countries. Italy, Norway and other countries have unprecedented droughts. Even the "water conservancy kingdom" in the Netherlands that has been governing the flood for hundreds of years has also announced the country. The water level reaches a historical low.

Local time on August 7, 2022 on the Luxal River Bed shot on St. Matham on the French River in France

In fact, not just the Rhine, affected by continuous drought, the longest river in Italy, the Bobo River with a total length of more than 650 kilometers, has also dropped to the lowest level in 70 years.

Satellite images show June 2020, June 20, 2020, June 15, 2021, and June 20, 2022, the changes in the water level of the Bohe River in northern Italy

According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the global subtropical high pressure will still maintain a strong trend in the future, and Western Europe is forming a new heat wave. It is expected that this round of heat waves will be exacerbated and spread. The numerical model prediction also shows that the current drought may continue in the next few months, and the European River has dried up may become a long -term trend.

NO.2 [Impact]

Energy crisis exacerbates a greater impact on shipping and industry

The Rhine originated from the Alps, with a total length of 1230 kilometers and a basin area of ​​185,000 square kilometers. The dry flow of the Rhine is distributed in a number of world -renowned industrial bases, which plays a pivotal role in the economic development of all countries along the coast. It is called the "lifeline" of Europe.

According to data from the EU Statistical Bureau, the European River has a total cargo weighing more than 1 tons of freight for each EU resident every year, and river transportation contributes about $ 80 billion to the regional economy.

Local time on August 11, 2022, in Dusseldorf, Germany, a ship carrying a small amount of goods sailing on the low -water Lein River

With the continuous decline in the water level of Rhine and other rivers, shipping and industrial production have been severely affected, and the energy crisis has also exacerbated. In addition, drought is undermining the agricultural economy and endangering aquatic wildlife.

The waterway can be described as "Achilles" in Europe. Generally speaking, as long as the water level drops to less than 40 cm, it is difficult for most large ships carrying materials such as coal. Under normal circumstances, the summer water level in the Rhine is about two meters, but the current water depth of some Rhine is less than one meter. Most cargo ships must reduce loads to sail, resulting in increased transportation costs.

On August 9, 2022, local time, Bin Gen, Germany, passed by the transport ship from the dry Rhine of the river bed

A large number of factory companies along the river cannot get enough raw materials in time, and production and operation have been greatly affected. The occurrence of the Kobu River section of important water transportation hubs continues to have low water levels, which may intensify the European energy crisis.

At present, the amount of hydropower in many countries such as Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal has declined. Among them, French hydropower is at the lowest level in nearly 10 years, and Spain is at the second low level in the past 20 years. Millions of people in the UK have been banned from watering the lawn and garden. The S & P Global Commodity Insight Company said that the EU corn production is expected to decrease by 12.5 million tons compared with last year, and the output of sunflower seeds is expected to decrease by 1.6 million tons. On July 24, 2022, local time, Selmid, Italy, the ship was moored on the dried riverbed of the Bohe River

According to data from the Deutsche Bank Research Department, in October in October in the Rhine's Kobu River in 2018, the water level fell to a historical low, which led to a decrease of GDP in Germany by 0.2%. The low water level appeared earlier this year. If high temperature and drought continue, economic losses will be more serious.

NO.3 [Countermeasure]

Adhere to governance and improve legislation

In recent years, the global climate has continued to hear significantly, which has a certain impact on regional river runoff and water resources. Under the common role of climate change and human activities, the riverside runoffs in dry areas have decreased sharply, and floods in humid areas have increased. The changes in river hydrology have brought severe challenges to regional ecological balance and watershed water resources management.

Affected by environmental changes, about one -third of the top 200 rivers in the world show a significant trend of changes. Among them, there are 19 running flows, and 45 are declining. Related international research shows that as far as the Rhine is concerned, the results of the climate model estimation show that if the current greenhouse gas emissions trend will not be effectively alleviated, it is expected that the average runoff of the Rhine will decrease by 5%to 40%by 2100.

Local time on August 11, 2022, Duisburg, Germany, the sheep on the bank of the Rhine River on the dry bridge to avoid summer heat

How to cope with the impact of climate change on the river? In the long -term exploration practice, the EU has taken the following measures in risk management of river flow:

Adhere to the management of water ecological environment and flood risk management. In many European countries, flood control and water ecological management are part of the water management system, and the content of water resources and ecological environmental protection accounts for a greater proportion.

Establish an effective watershed comprehensive management organization. For example, the "Protecting the Rhine International Committee", clarify management responsibilities and cooperation mechanisms, and coordinate the establishment of monitoring systems and formulation planning plans. It is the basic requirement for the establishment of the flood warning system and the wisdom and flood control between the weather data, water level water data data, and water level data.

Continuously improve the relevant legislation of the basin management. Through national or regional legislation, signing common action plans and cooperation treaties, and clarifying the responsibility of various departments, such as the "Rhine Basin Flood Risk Management Plan".

Local time on August 11, 2022, the depleted France Lovar River released on the social platform

NO.4 [Revelation]

Early warning early, effective prevention and control

my country is vast and rich in water systems, and many important rivers crossed many provinces. In various basins, whether a strong precipitation or high temperature drought occur, it will pose a serious threat to the people's production and life. Therefore, in the context of global warming, what changes will happen to these rivers? How to scientifically manage river risk?

On August 7, 2022, local time, the Banndia Reservoir, Spain, low water level, and Rusabela Royal Bathroom site surfaced

Data show that from 1956 to 2018, except for the Yangtze River Basin, the remaining six major rivers in my country showed a different degree of decline in the measured runoff.

Wang Guoqing, a professor -level senior engineer in response to the climate change research center, said: "In order to enhance the risk management capabilities, we need to use scientific and technological knowledge to understand the possible impact of climate change, and then formulate a strategy of adapting to climate change at the national level. Copy climate change measures, and then realize the overall improvement of social and natural systems to adapt to climate change. The important prerequisite and key is how to scientifically understand the potential impact of climate change. "

Wang Guoqing believes that, specifically, the relevant departments such as meteorology and hydrology are required to calculate the frequency and intensity of future drought and floods based on different climate change scenarios, laying the foundation for the formation of comprehensive adaptation strategies for the basin.

Local time on August 9, 2022, Hungarian Budapest, Hungarian, people stand at the southern end of Margaret Island with a low water level in the Danube

Expert proposal:

● Effectively adapt to climate change, and it is necessary to establish a collaborative governance organization in the basin to improve the management system of the basin, and form a full -cycle system planning and hierarchical management of the pre -disaster, disaster, and after disaster.

● In the basis of the basin, collect the data of floods and drought disasters, analyze the development of disaster development, connect upstream and downstream disaster conditions, complete the risk assessment of disaster risk, draw the risk -disaster disaster and risk maps of the basin, and prepare for the establishment of a sound warning system.

● According to the management goals of the basin, clarify the priority action plan, draft and release the overall and local regulations on climate change in the basin area, clarify the types of specific measures, including setting measures to avoid new risks and reduce existing risks, enhance the elasticity of the watershed spatial space Measures, measures to improve drought resistance and water -saving ability, and promote the coordination of the basin.

● Integrate water ecological environment management with flood risk management. While flood prevention, drought, and disaster reduction, pay attention to the related water ecological recovery, water pollution control, and water resources management;Emergency mechanisms, including pre -disaster warning systems, disaster response systems, and post -disaster recovery system.Produced by China Meteorological News Agency

Author: Wu Peng

Expert Consultant: Cai Yingning, a senior engineer of the Central Meteorological Channel, Zhang Jianyun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Zhang Jianyun, a professor -level senior engineer of the Research Center of the Research Center of Wang Guoqing, Wang Guoqing Institute of Ghost Physics, Zhou Tianjun

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Edit: Yang Sheng Lan Wanxia

Image source: network

Review: Duan Haoshu

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