"Coal" GDP has risen sharply. Do n’t you worry about “ore at home”?

The "big cycle" of coal is the excellent window period of the "coal capital"

In the first half of this year, the GDPs of major "coal capitals" had made great progress, which became a significant phenomenon in the first half of the year.

Data show that in the first half of 2022, GDP in multiple coal resource -based cities across the country rose sharply.

In the first half of the year, the average growth rate of GDP nationwide was 2.5%, but the GDP growth rates of GDP growth in Qujing City, Luliang City, Shanxi, Yulin, Shaanxi and Ordos, Inner Mongolia were 7.7%, 7.4%, 7.2%, and 6%. Leading, it has also become the first team leading in the national urban economy.

The "coal capital", which has been dragged down due to the adjustment of the coal industry in the past ten years, has been promoted again by coal.

However, because the major "coal capitals" who have risen coal prices have re -prosper, are they really "at home"?

Yulin. Photo/Visual China

GDP's rising "coal capital"

From the perspective of nominal growth, the growth of "coal capital" is even more amazing.

In the first half of this year, Yulin GDP was 296.984 billion yuan, an increase of 75.708 billion yuan over the first half of last year. The nominal growth rate of GDP was as high as 34.21%. Ordos's nominal GDP growth rate also increased by 25.01%.

Under the rise in coal prices, the rise of "coal capital" has brought about changes in regional patterns.

In the first half of this year, Yulin's GDP exceeded Luoyang, Henan, and became the cities with the highest total GDP in non -provincial cities in the central and western regions.

In 2021, Yulin's GDP ranked 11th, entering the top 50 nationwide, ranking 46th. In the first half of this year, Yulin GDP ranked 43rd nationwide with a result of 296.984 billion yuan.

Ordos's GDP in the first half of the year was 2550 million yuan. Regardless of the growth rate or total, it ranked first in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Ordos. Photo/Visual China

Many resource cities are the second largest cities in the provincial region, or the provincial sub -cities that are being cultivated. Yunnan Qujing, Shaanxi Yulin and Shanxi Changzhi are the second largest economies in the province.

The rising market for coal not only "increased bricks and tiles" for the economy of these cities, but also from the economy to help these cities gain the positioning of the provincial sub -center.

Take Qujing, Yunnan as an example. Recently, the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government issued the "Several Opinions on Supporting the Construction of Qujing Construction of Yunnan Subject" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions") to support Qujing City to accelerate the construction of Yunnan sub -center cities.

The above -mentioned "Opinions" proposed that by 2025, Qujing's Yunnan sub -center cities will be basically completed. The regional GDP will exceed 500 billion yuan, strive to reach 600 billion yuan, and the total economic volume will account for more than 15%of the province. By 2035, a higher -level Yunnan sub -center city will be built. The regional GDP will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan and enter the top 50 national -level cities.

As the second largest city and the second largest economy in Yunnan, Qu Jing exceeded the 300 billion yuan mark for the first time in 2021. But it is not easy to accomplish such a goal.

Relevant statistics show that among the 27 provincial -regional sub -cities announced by official announcements, 19 of the province's GDP proportion has not yet reached 10%. Qujing to achieve more than 15%is difficult to imagine.

"Don't worry about mine at home"?

Under the "big cycle" of coal, the record of the major "coal capital" seemed to have a good impression on the outside world.

The "coal capital" of "at home" actually has its own concerns.

Hu Qianting, a professor at the School of Coal Resources and Safety of Chongqing University, told China News Weekly that there are currently regions with large coal reserves in my country and the best geological conditions. It is concentrated in the Ordos Basin. Yulin and Ordos are representatives of the coal production cities in this region.

"Regardless of the reserves of coal or difficulty in mining, there is no need to worry about the exhaustion of resources in the short term. The existing coal resources can continue to supply for many years." Hu Qianting said.

Taking Yulin as an example, the official website of the Yulin Municipal Government shows that Yulin has found 48 types of minerals in 8 categories, with potential value of more than 46 trillion yuan. Coal, gas, oil, and salt resources are enriched, and the development potential is huge.

At present, Yulin coal forecast reserves are 280 billion tons, and the proven reserves are 149 billion tons, accounting for 1/5 of the country, accounting for 86.2%of Shaanxi Province. Among them, Shenfu coal field is one of the seven major coal fields in the world; natural gas predictive reserves are 6 trillion cubic meters, which is the core component of the largest overall gas field in my country to date; An important part of.

In the past two years, in the large coal cycle, Yulin GDP has grown very fast. The nominal growth rate in 2021 was 32.9%, the second nationwide; the nominal growth rate in the first half of 2022 was 34.21%, and the country was first.

However, the GDP nominal growth rate contains the growth rate of price changes. The actual growth rate is to eliminate the growth of price changes and only consider the growth rate of actual output changes.

In 2021, the actual growth rate of Yulin GDP was 7.9%, and the actual growth rate in the first half of 2022 was 7.2%, which was much lower than its nominal growth rate. Among them, the actual growth rate in 2021 was 7.9%or less than the average of 8.1%nationwide.

This means that once coal prices fall, Yulin GDP will be greatly affected.

In addition, the per capita disposable income of Yulin, which is so rich in resources in 2021, is 28073 yuan, not only lower than the per capita disposable income of Shaanxi Province of 28568 yuan, but also less than 2021. Ordos, surrounded by the "Ji" of the Yellow River, the reserves of the coal proven was 210.2 billion tons, accounting for about one -sixth in the country and one -half of Inner Mongolia; Essence

However, the resource -based industries such as coal are relatively high. Under the pressure of carbon peaks, Ordos also faces the problem of transformation.

The situation in Shanxi, a large province of coal production, is more special.

From the perspective of the province, in the first half of 2022, the GDP of Shanxi Province increased by 5.2%over the same period last year, faster than the national (2.5%) 2.7 percentage points, ranking second in the country.

The coal reserves of Shanxi Province were 270.901 billion tons, ranking first in the country. Unlike Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi coal resources highly concentrated in individual cities, Shanxi's coal resources are relatively average in multiple cities.

From a regional point of view, the coal -containing area of ​​Shanxi Province is 64,800 square kilometers, accounting for about 40%of the total land area of ​​the province. It is mainly distributed in Datong, Ningwu, Hedong, Xishan, Qinshui, Huoxi Six Coal Fields and Hunyuan, Fan Ye, Wutai, Yuanqu, Ruicheng, Pinglu and other counties (urban areas).

Zhang Ming, an analyst of the coal industry, told China News Weekly that one ton of coal is also mining. At present, it requires about 100 yuan in Ordos, Yulin and other regions, while Shanxi needs about 200-300 yuan.

Hu Qianting told China News Weekly that, compared with open -air coal mines in Ordos and other areas, the coal mine in Shanxi is more complicated, and it is necessary to prevent security accidents such as gas explosions.

"Shanxi coal mining has a long history, and now the depth of the mine is deeper than the coal mines in the Ordos Basin. Relevant estimates in the industry show that the current mining cost of Shanxi is about twice the above areas." Hu Qianting said.

Zhang Ming admits that the current "big cycle" in high coal prices is not obvious. Once coal prices enter the downward range and the price is low, the entire province of Shanxi will be affected even greater.

Hu Qianting said that compared with Yulin, Ordos and other areas, Shanxi is closer to the province of coal use in the east.

"It's a very good transformation window period"

Regardless of whether the resources itself is sufficient, the transformation and upgrade problems are placed in front of the "coal capital".

The extension of the coal industry chain has become the first step in this upgrade.

Professor Yang Zhaobiao, deputy director of the Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education of the Ministry of Education of China University of Mining and Technology, told China News Weekly that compared with simply mining coal, the mining of coalbed methane is undoubtedly an important extension of the coal industry chain.

"Generally speaking, in areas with abundant coal resources, coalbed methane resources are also abundant. Coalbed methane is a kind of natural gas. It is more clean than coal. It is an important transition energy source in the background of double carbon." Yang Zhaobiao said.

More importantly, the mining of coalbed methane plays an important role in avoiding coal mining safety accidents.

"In areas with complex geological conditions in the mine, the mining conditions are poor, and it is more likely to cause safety accidents such as gas explosion.

In recent years, Shanxi has strengthened its efforts to develop the coalbed methane industry. At present, the annual output of coal seams in Shanxi Province accounts for more than 95%of the country.

It is reported that China's coalbed methane geological resources are second only to Russia and the United States, ranking third in the world. Shanxi Province's coalbed methane resources are one of the most abundant regions in the country with the most abundant coalbed methane resources, accounting for about 1/3 of the country.

In Yang Zhaobiao's view, the development of the coalbed methane industry has a very important role in the extension of the coal industry chain of Shanxi Province.

Yang Zhaobiao said that in areas with poor geological conditions, the cost of directly mining coal is indeed high, but if it is mining coal seam gas, it is almost the same as that of Yulin and Ordos with low coal mining costs.

In addition to the extension of the coal industry chain, the overall transformation of resource -based cities is also worthy of attention.

"At present, the overall national strategy is to restrict the coal industry in the eastern region, stabilize the coal industry in the central region, and support the development of the western coal industry." Hu Qianting said.

Compared with the "coal capital" in the central and western regions, many coal cities in the eastern region have faced the problem of transformation and upgrading earlier due to the earliest development time and the gradual exhaustion of resources.

"Take Xuzhou as an example. The earliest Xuzhou relied on coal, but after the minerals were gradually exhausted, Xuzhou successfully transformed through pillar industries such as construction machinery." Yang Zhaobiao said.

In recent years, some coal cities have also continuously transformed new paths.

Taking Shandong Jining as an example, the local state -owned coal mining group has gradually transformed in the inland river port business in the past two years.

Although Yulin has a high per capita GDP, in order to benefit the people more and comprehensively improve the local per capita disposable income, industrial upgrading has been "arrow on the string."

In 2018, Yulin City decided to build a science and Technology Innovation City, and in the same year, it established the preparatory leadership group of the Science and Technology Innovation City. In 2020, the construction of science and innovation city was fully launched.

The total planning area of ​​Yulinke Innovation City is 69 square kilometers. According to Yulin's plan, we must introduce and cultivate scientific research talents, gather scientific research institutes to build a new city for energy innovation.

"In recent years, coal prices are high. For the" coal capital ", it is a very good transformation window period, and it is necessary to use it quickly." Zhang Ming said.(Zhang Ming is a pseudonym)

Author: Zhao Yue ([email protected])

Edit: Sun Xiaobo

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

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