Data News ｜ Rain and rain!Rainwater set up a "Baoyue" package?

In the near future

Solid rainfall continues to stabilize in Jiangnan, South China

Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places

Rainy

Netizens joked that Rainwater had a "Baoyue" package

How much rain has these places in the end?

What causes too much rainfall?

We find out from meteorological big data

It rains 28 days within 30 days! Rainwater set up a "Baoyue" package?

At present, the heavy rainfall in South China and Jiangnan in my country continues. From the 15th to 17th, there are heavy rains in most Guangxi, central and northern Guangdong, southeast of Hunan, eastern and southern Jiangxi, western and northern Fujian, and southern Zhejiang. The heavy rain or heavy rainfall is expected to continue until the 21st. Prior to this, since May, 6 rounds of heavy rainfall have appeared in South China, Jiangnan and other places. Among them, from May 9th to 14th, May 27th to 30th, and June 3rd to 13th, the three regional regional storms in the southern region have long rainfall duration, a large amount of rainfall, a wide range of influence, and more. The rainfall of the province (autonomous region) has the characteristics of the forefront of the same period, and the storms and flood disasters.

Six rounds of rainfall process diagram since May: Ding Qian

According to statistics from the National Climate Center, from May 1st to June 15th, the rainfalls of most South China, most southwest, southern East China, southern Hunan and eastern Tibet generally have a general extension of 20 % to 1 times. Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi The average rainfall in the three provinces (autonomous regions) reached 621 mm, which was the most historical since 1961.

From May 1st to June 16th, the national precipitation is like the situation. Picture source: Central Meteorological Observatory

From May 13th to June 14th, the cumulative precipitation in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province reached 427 mm, which was more than doubled than the precipitation (210 mm) in the same year. 17.3 days of precipitation days. Guangzhou Province, Guangdong Province, has also spent 26 rain days in nearly 30 days, exceeding 19 days of the same period of the year, and the cumulative precipitation has reached 425 mm, which is significantly more than the same period (328 mm).

From May 13th to June 14th, Guangzhou and Fuzhou cumulative precipitation, precipitation daily days and comparative comparative diagrams of the same period of the year: Ding Qian

In fact, it is not only that since May since May, Jiangnan and other places have more precipitation. Since the beginning of the flood season in South China (March 24 to June 14), the average precipitation of the Pearl River Basin is 660.5 mm, which is compared with the same period of the same year (511.55.5 MM) 29.1%is more than the same period since 1961.

Multiple "power" continues to compete and cause the rain band for a long time to stay

According to the National Climate Center, the South China Sea Summer Wind this year broke out in May 3rd. The South China Sea summer monsoon and Indian monsoon brought abundant water vapor to the southern region of my country.

Entering May, with the adjustment of the mid -high circulation circulation, the circulation direction has increased, and the cold air activities south of the eastern part of my country are frequent. In addition, the cold vortex of the Northeast this year is more active. As of June 14, there have been 14 Northeast cold vortex.

The main rain in my country's flood season has always been inseparable from the subtropical high pressure. Recently, the subtropical high -pressure continued to be east and south, and several "power" co -developed, which led to a long time to stay in South China and Jiangnan for a long time.

Where does Shuiqi come from? Drawing: Ding Qian

In the context of climate warming, the impact of the La Nina incident that began in September 2021. In summary, the abnormal precipitation in the Pearl River Basin also has a certain relationship with the slow decay of the La Nina incident. Not only that, La Nina has a slight significant signing in the near future.

According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, in late June, the cold vortex event in the Northeast will be weakened. At that time, the subtropical high pressure will also be lifted north. Affected by it, the main rain belt in my country will also be north than the present stage.

Mei Yu District has less precipitation! Will it really be "no rain"?

On May 29, the Jiangnan region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in my country entered the same time. This year's Meiyu season officially kicked off, and the Meimei Rain areas have also announced their entry into Mei in accordance with the national standards of Meiyu monitoring indicators.

Recently, many netizens living in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River said through social platforms that this year's rainy season seems to be not as wet as in previous years, and there are not many rain in the rain. Will the rainy season be "no rain"?

According to statistics from the National Climate Center, the admission time in the Jiangnan area is 11 days earlier than usual (June 9). As of June 13, the total rainy days in the Jiangnan area were 14 days. 42%less. The rainy rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 16 days earlier than usual (June 14). As of June 13, the cumulative rainy day in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 9 days. The cumulative rainfall was 108.2 mm, which was 66%less than the annual (318 mm). Since May, the precipitation has also continued to be less in May. It has not reached the standard of entering plums. The rainy season of Jianghuai Meimei has not yet opened.

It is expected that from mid -June to late June, the subtropical high pressure will be lifted north, the rain rain belt will gradually move north, and the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Jianghuai area will increase. It is expected that the JAC area may reach the plum standard in mid -June to late June.

Jiangnan South China precipitation will continue to be alert to secondary disaster until the 21st

Continuous precipitation is not just affecting the public's daily life, but also increases the risk of geological disasters, waterlogging, and floods.

At present, the rainfall in South China and Jiangnan will continue, and the rain belt develops from south to north, and its intensity will gradually increase. From the 18th to 21st, the eastern section of the rain belt was obviously north, but South China heavy rainfall was still endless. It is expected that there will be heavy rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River along the river, Jiangnan, South China, and southern Guizhou. There will be heavy rains in the local area, and it will be accompanied by strong convection weather such as short -term heavy precipitation and thunderstorms. The rainfall area in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and other places will overlap in the early stage. Due to the large precipitation in the early stage, the soil moisture in Jiangnan and South China has been saturated and the risk of disaster is extremely high. Experts remind that the public needs to be alert to disasters such as floods, landslides, mudslides, and urban and rural waterlogging that may cause continuous rainfall or heavy rainfall. At the same time, rainfall continues to grow more than the growth of early rice in Jiangnan and South China. It is necessary to strengthen field management, timely drainage and flooding, and monitoring and prevention of diseases and insect pests. At present, the Pearl River Basin Xijiang and Beijiang and other sub -waters are super police. In the next week, there will still be heavy rainfall in the Pearl River Basin, and the amount of water in the upstream is large. Related areas need to pay close attention to the changes in rain and flood conditions to prevent the floods and reservoirs that may cause small and medium rivers to ensure safety floods.

Produced by the China Meteorological Administration Meteorological Propaganda and Popularization Center (China Meteorological News Agency)

Author: Sujesi King Beautiful

Expert consultant: Central Meteorological Station Senior Engineer Ma Jie

National Chief Meteorological Expert National Climate Center Senior Engineer Zhou Bing

Drawing: Ding Qian

Edit: Brush

Review: Duan Haoshu

- END -