The Meteorological Bureau dare not predict high temperatures above 40 degrees?Meteorological Bureau: Ah right!

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In 2022, with the coming of the global heat waves, China encountered unprecedented high temperature. High temperatures in many places not only broke the historical records, but also broke through the historical records. When everyone is hot and unbearable, a rumor comes again: the weather forecast deliberately lowering the temperature and dare not report to 40 ° C and above, and high temperature fakes should be put in more than 40 ° C, so this is a high temperature subsidy for the province. Especially when you see a series of high -temperature forecasts of 39 ° C, this remark seems to be solid. In addition, some other thermometer test exceeding 40 ° C temperature, and the Meteorological Bureau seems to be unable to wash even washing. The Meteorological Bureau makes rumors on such rumors every year, but it still comes back every year. In fact, as long as we calm down, we will find that there are some logical loopholes in the rumor itself. After reading this science, I believe you will have a more scientific understanding of this phenomenon.

1

The vulnerability of the rumor itself

First of all, there is no high temperature leave in China. Although some scholars have been promoting the establishment of high temperature leave, this is still in the demonstration stage. Therefore, compared to rumors, no high temperature leave, the first thing we should do is to promote one first to promote one first to promote one first to promote one first Establish high -temperature leave. So is the second question, is the high temperature allowance and 40 ° C? The answer is no. According to the current laws, high -temperature weather above 35 ° C is engaged in outdoor open -air operations and cannot take effective measures to reduce the temperature of the workplace to below 33 ° C, and high temperature allowance should be issued.

In fact, the real regulations related to 40 ° C are that the highest temperature of the daily daily reaches above 40 ° C, and outdoor open -air operations should be stopped on the day of the day. Obviously, if it is for high temperature allowances, the Meteorological Bureau should get stuck 35 ° C instead of 40 ° C. Of course, there will be a question that 35 ° C is too easy to reach, it is not easy to fool, but 40 ° C is different. In fact, such a debate point to the correct answer, how does it point to, let's talk about it later. The most important question is, does the Meteorological Bureau really have no forecast for 40 ° C? As long as we find the recent high -temperature forecast of the country, we will find that not only are there, the distribution of high temperature also meets our general cognition.

Figure 1 | The three major stoves are high temperatures above 40 ° C (China Weather Network)

Of course, there will be some problems in doubt, such as: I clearly feel that the temperature is hot or 39 ° C than 39 ° C a few days ago? The temperature measurement gun really shows 40 + ℃, but the phone is really worse than me? Wait, in this way, when we understand the principle of temperature reporting, we can answer these questions ourselves.

2

How was the temperature measured?

According to the provisions of the World Meteorological Organization, the temperature released by the meteorological department is the temperature measured by the thermometer in the shutter. The louver box must be located on the lawn, 1.5 meters from the ground, and the surroundings are wide. There are no tall buildings, trees, etc. to block the wind or block the sun. Why do you do that? This is because the establishment of meteorological stations needs to be flat and open, and the measuring meteorological data is very representative. Obviously, due to different reasons, in the same city, the temperature of the asphalt roads, cement roads, and street slate is different. The temperature of 1.5 meters high in these places may be four or five degrees higher than those of the shutters. Isn't it easy for 40 ° C in this case?

Figure 2 | Beltail (Network)

It seems that the Meteorological Bureau really puts the shutters into the lawn for the fact that the temperature does not rise to 40 ° C. This can avoid 40 ° C. Is this that? If in order to pursue the highest temperature and place the louver box at the highest temperature, wouldn't it be cold in winter, but the temperature forecast showed that it was not cold? In this case, choosing an interference and a standard unified environment is the inherent requirements of science. Putting the thermometer in the louver is to obtain the real state of the atmosphere, so that it can analyze the transformation of indicators such as temperature and pressure on a larger scale. If the temperature cannot reflect the real situation of the atmosphere, how can we go to the weather forecast?

In the city, it is normal when we take out the temperature of the warm gun or the thermometer to test differently from the weather forecast, but this is not the temperature in the louver. Except for the quality problems such as warm guns, the main reason is that the artificial fever caused by buildings and roads in different places in the city, and the heating level of different cities and different regions of the same city is also different. How to better reflect this heating effect on data is not only a scientific issue. And it is a social problem. (Low emotional quotient: No yet)

Figure 3 | The sun exposure to the sun is simply hell on earth (Weibo)

In fact, many problems are related to our actual experience, but this practical experience is not "standard". The temperature of people's feelings has a "somatosensory temperature" to measure in science, and the body temperature is related to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, etc. When the temperature is the same, the higher the humidity, the higher the temperature, the higher the temperature is naturally. Under the condition of windless, the temperature of 35 ° C and the relative humidity of 60%will have a physical sensing temperature of 41 ° C. In the heat wave, as the high temperature continues, the water from the soil and plants continues to evaporate and steam into the air, so it will feel more and more hot when the temperature is the same. However, when the humidity increases to a certain degree, a certain short -term heavy precipitation will occur. In the afternoon of August 11, Shanghai will have a strong precipitation in the afternoon of 40 ° C. Figure 4 | Modern temperature calculation formula. AT is somatosensory temperature (° C), T is temperature (° C), E is water voltage (HPA), V is wind speed (M/SEC), RH is relative humidity (%)

In addition to the temperature temperature, some instantaneous experiences will also affect our feelings. For example, the hot waves that just come from the indoor to the outdoor, the greater the temperature difference between the indoor and outdoor, the stronger the experience. When we are exposed to the sun, the hot feeling will be more obvious, but this is no longer the temperature but the sun irradiation temperature. Therefore, sun protection is very important.

3

How is the temperature forecast?

After the temperature measured, in addition to the real -time temperature, the meteorological department also needs to forecast the temperature. In addition to the meteorological factors such as measured temperature, air pressure, air pressure, cloud and rain, etc., the temperature forecast also has a great relationship with historical temperature. In other words, when the meteorological station makes a temperature forecast, it depends on the probability of this temperature. Some cities rarely have high temperatures above 40 ° C in history. Only the maximum temperature has just exceeded 40 ° C. It is actually a small probability event to make such a forecast. Incidents are undoubtedly a gambling.

In this case, we need to understand the significance of 39 ° C in a row, which means that it is close or equal to the highest temperature of history. The higher temperature forecast needs further data to support it. Recently, some cities have no longer "dead" lines of 39 ° C, which has begun to predict 40 ° C. This is not the result of some kind of pressure, but the result of repeated record high temperature on temperature forecasting.

Figure 5 | 44.6 ℃ in Zhushan, Hubei breaks through the historical record of Hubei Province. The original record was July 20, 1966, Zhushan 43.4 ℃ (Weibo)

The good news is that the autumn has arrived, and the days when high temperatures are getting closer and closer; bad news is that in the context of warming the climate, there will only be more and more times such a high temperature forecast. The issue of 40 ° C that we argue today may become a horizontal line that can pass by the thermometer in the future. How to reduce the emergence of this high temperature and the adverse effects of high temperature on people is the issue that we should consider.

4

Thinking about rumors

The biggest problem with this rumor is to confuse the actual temperature and forecast temperature. Obviously, if the measured temperature meets the corresponding standards, it is also possible to take measures. Especially when the weather report is in real time, the temperature we finally see is already measured temperature rather than forecast temperature. Between understanding and incomprehension, there is a huge knowledge of knowledge and cognitive bias, especially in the environment of information cocoons today, this will cause mutual attacks and abuse between different groups.

Figure 6 | Obviously, the maximum temperature is 42 ° C, 40 ° C is nothing (China Weather Network)

Many rumors are untenable. It can be overturned through some simple logical inferences, just like plastic rice (plastic is more expensive than rice), which is based on people's general cognition. However, some rumors require people to take the initiative to verify or understand professional knowledge. In this case, the break of rumors will be more difficult. How to reduce the cost of rumor removal and how to make everyone can diagnose rumors based on their own cognition is one of the science science tasks.

Old "familiar" people, good you ~

Pop quiz

We have prepared a few questions related to this article here, and you can answer them through a message. The first two answers can get a dry and wet ball temperature meter to help you understand the current temperature at any time ~ (The answer is valid within 24 hours after the article is released; after 24 hours, you will select all answers in the comment area and publicize the winner)

What are the requirements for the establishment of the louver?

When the temperature is the same, the higher the humidity, the higher or lower the temperature?

预 The standard of my country's high -temperature red warning signal?

Come and answer enthusiastically ~

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