Has the consumer coupon leverage consumption?

Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

The issuance of consumer vouchers has recently become a starting point for re -commercials and re -markets in various places and boosting consumption. It is hoped that with the multiplication effect of "four or two pounds", several times the consumption recovery, or even increase. According to the plans to boost the consumer market in various places, there are still many consumer coupons on the road.

According to public reports, the search cities issued consumer coupons and were not fully statistics. Since this year, there have been 23 key cities in the country to issue consumer coupons. The above -mentioned limited samples are based on the analysis samples). In order to issue consumer coupons, these cities have spent nearly 4 billion yuan in fiscal funds.

Compared with the past two years, this year's urban consumer vouchers have further expanded to the fields of home appliances, cars, and sports brigades based on commercial super -commercial and catering. It also appears special consumer coupons such as night consumption and outlying islands. The face value, nuclear sales threshold, frequency of distribution, etc. of consumer vouchers have also been adjusted.

To sort out the situation of the issuance and use of consumer vouchers in various places, it is necessary to reflect on: Did the consumer coupon leverage the consumption? What else can the policy do after issuing consumer vouchers?

Issue

The amount of fiscal expenditure in each city ranges from millions to hundreds of millions. Among the 23 cities, there were 15 million expenditures, accounting for 65%.

Data source: According to public information (bid "-" as no related data), urban evolutionary theory

From time to perspective, in order to prepare for the "May Day" festival, Mother's Day, "May 20" and other festivals in May, at the end of April, Changsha, Shenzhen, Changchun and other places began to start consumer vouchers. Consumption activities, with the help of the holiday atmosphere, promote the rise of consumption activity. Immediately afterwards, June, July, and August were also the schedule for consumer activities. Many cities distributed inclusive consumer coupons, hoping to "icing on the cake" for summer consumption.

Compared with the previous two years, this year's consumer vouchers have become more and more supportive. In the past, consumer vouchers have continued to be favored in the fields of commercial supermarkets and catering. The new trend is cultural tourism, home appliances, cars, and even housekeeping, sports, home building materials The theme consumer vouchers also appeared in areas.

For example, the consumer vouchers issued by Hefei are divided into the industry and have a lot of names. There are consumer coupons specifically targeted at housekeeping, car consumer coupons related to local leading industries, and fitness subsidy consumer coupons.

According to its own industrial characteristics, Hainan has a dedicated outlying islands duty -free consumer coupon. Qingdao has designed consumer coupons for the Beer Festival, and Hunan has issued special consumer coupons at night to drive night economy recovery.

The long -awaited film industry also urgently needed to return blood. On August 11, the National Film Bureau issued a notice of issuing film consumer vouchers, trying to attract the audience to return to the theater to awaken the past movie viewing habits.

Nuclear sales

After the consumer coupon is densely issued, did the local consumption effectively boosted?

Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

It is inconvenient to use the party and the discount is not large. These consumer experiences can be summarized at the end of the data to reflect the data. After all, getting consumer coupons, spending it out, and consumption behavior, can it be regarded as really driving consumption. But not all cities have announced this KPI.

Judging from the nuclear sales data published in some cities, the performance of the consumer vouchers is different.

On June 24, Hangzhou issued the second digital consumer voucher in 2022. After 4 days, the nuclear sales rate was less than half, 49.1%.

The nuclear sales rate also hovered around 50%, and the first round of the first round of "Hui Shi Hubei" consumer coupons in Hubei in June. Zhengzhou recently issued a consumer coupon for consumer coupons, with only 45%of the sales rate. The consumption coupon sales rate of consumer coupons in several cities such as Changsha, Chengdu, Ningbo, and Taiyuan reached more than 95%.

Looking at the indicator of the nuclear sales rate alone, the first nine -phase nuclear sales rate of the "Star City Consumer Coupon" launched by Changsha on April 26 was 93%, which was nearly 20 percentage points higher than the wave of consumer vouchers in November last year.

From local reports, it is impossible to know how Changsha has improved the consumption coupon's verification rate KPI, but Shenzhen Luohu District has clearly summarized the experience of using big data to optimize consumer vouchers--

Since the first issue of consumer coupons on April 1, Luohu District has adjusted a total of 4 consumer coupons issuance mechanisms. Taking the nuclear sales rate of big data as a reference, Luohu District has been dynamically optimizing the value, voucher, discount rate, validity period, and frequency of issuance of consumer coupons.

According to local media reports, the results of the top three batches of consumer vouchers in Luohu District showed that the consumer coupon sales of "over 100 minus 20" were the highest and can reach more than 30%. Therefore, the coupon has not been adjusted. The remaining three consumer vouchers have the verification rate of 10%to 15%. Therefore, when the fourth batch of consumer coupons were issued, Luohu adjusted the denominations and discount rates of the three consumer coupons -reduce the threshold and increase discounts. Extend the validity period of use.

At the same time, Luohu District also found that the use of consumer coupons was concentrated at night and weekends. Immediately, Luohu District issued an additional night consumption coupon, and took a 50 % discount to set the use of the voucher from 18:00 to 2 am the next day.

Of course, in addition to the nuclear sales rate, in the summary of the effects of consumer vouchers, the amount, the industry, the number of participants, and the merchant can be used as a proof of the effect of pulling the consumption.

Pry

The attractive leverage effect is the main reason for consumer coupons to be held by geothermal geothermal. Many places hope to use the "consumer season" activities to set up a policy portfolio and consumer vouchers to activate the consumer market and accelerate the recovery growth of the consumer market.

Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

On August 3, the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Commerce released data showing that in the first half of this year, Ningbo issued a third -phase government consumer coupon, which actually invested 660 million yuan (including superfunding funds), sold 580 million yuan, and directly leveraged 7.157 billion consumption of 7.157 billion yuan. Yuan. The second phase of Hangzhou's second digital consumption coupon mentioned above issued 185 million yuan, and the final associated order amount was 2.22 billion yuan. From this calculation, the proportion of this period of consumer vouchers in Hangzhou was about 1:11.

In the short term, the issuance of consumer coupons can indeed drive consumption to rise rapidly, but rational views, consumer coupons are not a "flawless" stimulus.

In the first place, the group of consumer vouchers is limited. This limited nature includes both consumer and supply.

For example, as an electronic coupon, consumer vouchers naturally isolate groups that are not convenient to use mobile phones; as for the supply side, consumer coupons are used most frequently, one is the supermarket, and the other is catering. cover.

A medical beauty institution has told Uncle Cheng that a common small face value consumer coupon such as 50 and 500 minus 200 or 500 minimum is difficult for thousands of consumption amounts, it is difficult to have a driving effect. This logic can be deduced to large amounts of consumption in cultural tourism, home appliances, automobiles, and home building materials.

Second, the evaluation of the stimulus effect of consumer coupons also needs to be treated rationally.

In the summary of sample cities, expressions such as "directly leverage consumption", "total consumption" and "direct consumption multiplication" and other expressions appear. However, consumer recovery or rebound is brought by consumer vouchers?

For example, affected by factors such as the festivation cycle, the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the characteristics of urban consumption, the consumption of coupons may also "rebound".

At the same time, some of the consumer coupons are actually "rigid demand", and consumer willingness is not affected by consumer vouchers. For example, to cheer for cars, for many people, with consumer coupons, the price is relatively cheaper, and it is difficult to "pry" more such consumption.

Therefore, if all consumption containing consumer vouchers is counted by consumer vouchers, it may overestimate the stimulus of consumer coupons.

More than ten years ago, when my country first started to issue consumer coupons, some scholars thought cold thinking about their leverage effects. Zhang Shiyu, Renmin University of China, wrote that the consumer vouchers received from the government did not generate income effects, but the alternative effect.

"For low -income groups, this alternative effect inspires them to deposit the money of the family's basic food expenditure into the bank, which is replaced by the government's consumer vouchers.

For high -income people, because the number of consumer coupons and face value is small, it is difficult to support elastic consumption such as house purchase, car buying and travel; more than, consumer coupons are not a regular, stable, and expected income, so It is also impossible to include their family consumption plan, and it is also difficult to really stimulate them to increase consumption. "

Long -term

It is undeniable that in a certain period of time, the consumer coupon does have the role of "burning" residents' consumption.

Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

Recently, many scholars have also affirmed the government's acting of consumer coupons.

The former deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Cai Yan said in a forum speech:

In response to the current insufficient consumption and income, the restrictions on long -term demand, in the final analysis, the government must play a greater role, but also adjust the structure and direction of the government's role. Everyone said that it is not reasonable to send money directly to residents and pay consumer vouchers. In fact, it is not unreasonable. It was originally the meaning of the government's performance in this period. Realize the real recovery. The direction of fiscal expenditure will also change -more biased towards people's livelihood and social benefits.

Yao Yang, Dean of Peking University National Development Council, also mentioned in a public speech:

It is recommended that the government issued 1.4 trillion special consumer Treasury bonds, which is mainly issued to low -income families and unemployed people who have a greater impact on the epidemic. The form of issuance is better, and it can also be consumer coupons, but the use of consumer coupons needs to be wider.

From the perspective of the city, the "stimulus" of consumer coupons is not just a short -term market. Consumption plays a "stabilizer" role in the "three driving carriages", and the economy needs to expand domestic demand urgently. It is still policy effort to stimulate consumer investment through policies.

What can be thoughtfully think is that after the consumer coupon is issued, what can be supported by the policy to make the consumer voucher more valuable?

Maybe you can cut in from the data of consumer vouchers and the precipitated sales.

Simply put, use the data generated by consumer vouchers. Analyze these data from shallow to deeply, identify the changes in consumer emotions, operate in related industries and fields, match the matching of both sides of supply and demand, and the smooth flow of various element circulation ... thereby providing policy reference for policy introduction.

In the short term, the policy accuracy of stabilizing the economic growth, promoting the improvement of industrial quality and efficiency for a long time, and making the effectiveness of consumer coupons longer.

Daily Economic News

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