International oil prices once returned to the $ 100 mark. Why is OPEC and IEA demand prediction "polarization"?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Bin Shanghai report

As international oil prices struggled near the $ 100 mark, the OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) had some differences in future demand prospects.

On August 11, local time, OPEC, representing the oil -producing country, announced the latest monthly report. It is expected that the oil market will "supply excess" in the third quarter. The IEA representing the consumer country predicts that the high price of natural gas will stimulate the demand for oil, and raising the global oil demand growth rate of 380,000 barrels per day this year.

From the perspective of market performance, the optimistic prediction of the growth rate of IEA has accounted for the upper hand. On August 11, the price of light crude oil futures delivered in September of the New York Commodity Exchange rose 2.62%to close at $ 94.34 per barrel; The price of the London Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.26%to close at $ 99.60 per barrel. On August 12, international oil prices fluctuated, and Brent crude oil futures returned above the $ 100 mark.

Zhu Runmin, a senior economist in the petroleum industry, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that the predictions of the two institutions are inevitable. Essence The International Energy Agency has raised demand forecasts, and the international crude oil prices on the day of the release of data have obviously driven by rising, but whether this is sustainable, it also depends on the actual market supply and demand changes.

Regarding the turbulent oil market, Wang Chengqiang, director of the New Era Futures Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that international oil prices have recently fallen back to the price level before the Russian -Ukraine conflict, in order to count the expectations of economic recession and weak overall demand. The contradictions between the supply and demand of the crude oil market are extremely prominent, determining the market's high fluctuation prospects. European and American sanctions on Russia and energy economy have laid hidden dangers with unstable energy supply, shortage of supply and demand structures, and soaring prices; while Europe and the United States rate hikes fighting against inflation, increasing the risk of economic recession, and the vulnerability at the demand level at high prices of crude oil. Essence It is expected that the crude oil market will show high -priced and high fluctuation characteristics for a long time.

OPEC, IEA prediction differentiation

On August 11, OPEC predicted in the latest monthly report that the global oil market will enter the excess supply in the third quarter, and the expected growth of global oil demand growth this year will be reduced. This is the third time since April. OPEC expects that global oil demand in 2022 will still increase by 3.1 million barrels per day to 1003 million barrels/day, but it is 260,000 barrels per day less than previous forecasts. constant.

This may mean that OPEC believes that there is no need to increase production in the short term. OPEC+announced the increase of 100,000 barrels per day in September last week, setting the minimum production in history. In response to this, IEA also said that due to limited idle capacity, OPEC+is unlikely to increase production in the next few months.

In contrast to OPEC, IEA will increase the global oil demand growth forecast of 2022 in the latest report by 380,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. It is expected that global crude oil demand will be 99.7 million barrels per day this year. IEA predicts that the demand for crude oil by 2023 will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day to 101.8 billion barrels/day.

Zhu Runmin analyzed that different institutions have different statistics and data sources, which will inevitably lead to different prediction results. OPEC lowered demand growth is based on the previous higher prediction base; and the increase in demand for the International Energy Agency is based on the lower base before. As soon as OPEC and the International Energy Department were adjusted, the predictions of the growth of oil demand between the two institutions were just reduced. With the gradual passing in 2022, the prediction of the growth of oil demand for the two will get closer and closer.

At the same time, there are also opinions that OPEC's "excess supply theory" is to stop the production of increasing production. OPEC does not want to continue to increase production and let oil prices continue to fall, which will affect their own interests.

It should be noted that although global crude oil demand will maintain this year, IEA is expected to increase demand for demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 to slow from 5.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022 to only 40,000 barrels per day.

In this regard, Zhu Runmin analyzed that the impact of the new crown epidemic in the fourth quarter of 2021 gradually faded, the demand for oil continued to recover, and the data was relatively stable. In the fourth quarter of 2022, high oil prices and economic slowdown will significantly inhibit oil demand, and oil consumption growth weakens.

Multi -short game will continue

Under the influence of multiple uncertainties such as global economy and the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the game of multi -short forces will continue.

From the perspective of the supply side, IEA said that with Russia's reduction of oil refining, oil production will decrease month -on -month as soon as this month. Next, as the EU import ban took effect, the decline will be accelerated. By 2023, Russia will have close to 2 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 20%.

The European Union will suspend most of the purchase of most crude oil from Russia from December 5 this year. From February 5 next year, the EU's ban on Russian oil products will take effect. According to IEA estimates, due to the planned EU restriction measures, about 1 million barrels of Russian oil products and 1.3 million barrels of crude oil every day will need to find new buyers.

However, Russian crude oil exports are not as serious as the outside world worry about. Although Russia's crude oil exported to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea has fallen by 2.2 million barrels per day after the start of Russia and Ukraine, some exports have shifted to India, Turkey and other countries. Specifically, compared with Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Russia's crude oil production capacity fell only 310,000 barrels per day in July, and the overall export volume fell only 580,000 barrels per day. The revenue of Russian crude oil exports throughout July was nearly $ 19 billion. Due to the decline in international oil prices and decreased export volume, July revenue decreased by $ 2 billion from June.

As Russia's supply is gradually decreasing, other oil -producing countries have limited production. On August 3, OPEC+agreed to increase the daily output of 100,000 barrels in September, setting the smallest increase in history. This result is lower than the previous market. The expected 300,000 barrels/day to 400,000 barrels/day.

In this regard, Goldman Sachs analyst Michele Della Vigna said that OPEC +'s production capacity is at a low point in the past 20 years, and the idle capacity has basically been exhausted. Therefore, he judged that the global energy crisis could not be resolved in the short term.

From the perspective of demand, the slowdown in economic growth in various countries and even decline will make it out of oil prices. Wang Chengqiang said that the short -term return of US Treasury bonds has continued to expand, and the yield difference between 10 -year and 2 -year Treasury bonds once reached 56 basis points on the 10th. Essence The expectations and high inflation problems of economic recession are suppressing consumer confidence and inhibiting the increase in demand for crude oil.

However, the soaring natural gas prices boosted the demand for crude oil to a certain extent. IEA stated in the monthly report that natural gas and electricity prices soared to a new record, which inspired some countries to convert from natural gas to oil, and the demand for oil in Europe and power generation for oil was extremely strong. The European Union plans to reduce the natural gas consumption of member states by 15%from August 2022 to March 2023, which will increase the demand for oil in the next six quarters by about 300,000 barrels per day.

From another perspective, Zhu Runmin said that the demand for natural gas prices on crude oil is not completely stimulated, and it may also have a suppression effect. High prices of natural gas will stimulate natural gas users to turn to use oil and stimulate oil demand. But not all natural gas demand can be replaced by oil. Increased natural gas bills may also inhibit consumers' consumption expenditures in the field of gasoline, which may be more obvious for families.

Equipment problems should also be noted. Zhu Runmin reminded that the restrictions on equipment are the main obstacles to shift from natural gas to oil power generation. Unless there is room for choice in design, different fuels cannot be easily replaced.

Wang Chengqiang analyzed reporters that for a long time, "oil turning gas" has been the direction of the development of the industry. However, due to European energy crisis, the abnormal rise in power and natural gas prices has risen, and the energy economy has turned on history. The replacement of oil and gas is generally occurred in the field of transportation, power and other fuel fields. Because the regional and device differences of oil and gas use, there are more restrictions on replacement, and large-scale conversion is often not realized in the short term. Therefore, IEA is in the conversion expectations of natural gas-crude oil use habits. Thousands of barrels/day.

On the whole, under the influence of long -short factors such as supply risks and economic recession, if the energy game in Russia and the West has not been upgraded sharply, the supply and demand contradiction between the oil market may gradually ease.

For the future, Zhu Runmin looks forward to three main factors affecting the supply and demand relationship. One is the development of the world economic change. This is a major variable that affects the demand for oil. The inhibitory effect on oil consumption will also be prominent; third, in terms of oil production, in the case of relatively high price, the continuous and stable growth trend of production will not change, but the possibility of a substantial growth in a short time. Based on the current world economic situation, the level of US dollar index, international crude oil price level, and global oil production level, the tension of supply and demand in the oil market for a period of time may gradually ease.

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