Seoul heavy rain!Is the cold vortex in Northeast China causing trouble again?Intersection

In the near future

North China, Northeast China and other places in my country

A strong precipitation weather appears

The capital circle of South Korea appears

Rare heavy rainstorm

The latitude of these areas is similar

And this heavy rainfall weather

It is indeed there

In the same weather situation, it happened

Its main source

They are continuous cold air brought by the cold vortex of Northeast China

Positive high -plowing strong heating and humidity flow

Meeting and collision formed

Stable, less movement, and duration for a long time

"Quay Jingzhi" rainfall

and many more

Did you see it again

Northeast cold vortex name

This recent years has been reported in news reports

The always appeared

What exactly is

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1. What is Northeast Cold Vortex?

Based on meteorological nouns to disassemble the word "Northeast Cold Vortex", it is easy to understand its essence -more cold, and rotating gas masses in the northeast region of my country.

Or according to its definition, the cold vortex of the Northeast is mostly in the northeast of our country. A cold air column over 6000 meters above the ground to 6000 meters. This cold air column is constantly rotating in a counterclockwise direction.

According to the Northeast Cold Vortex monitoring standards, it appears from 35 to 60 degrees north latitude, 105 degrees to 145 degrees east longitude, and cold vortexes that last more than 3 days can be called Northeast cold vortex.

On the weather map, there are at least one closed -equal lines in the height of the 500 -Pache position in the Northeast, and there are cold centers or obvious cold grooves. On the satellite cloud map, the northeast cold vortex characteristics are distinctive, and they are often asymmetric vortex. The rotation structure is huge, and the cold front clouds extended can sometimes be thousands of kilometers.

The picture shows FY-4A monitored Northeast Cold Vortex Source: National Satellite Meteorological Center

Of course, these may not be able to completely describe the cold vortex of the Northeast. Northeast cold vortex may be generated throughout the year, and the activity in summer is the highest. It is a deep weather system that moves slowly and has a long maintenance time. The average life cycle is 3 to 4 days, and the longest can reach more than ten days. Northeast cold vortex is generally divided into five paths of northeast, north, northwest, west, and southwest. Among them, the southwest path is the most rare. When there are warm and flat flowing or solar radiation in the low level, the unstable layer of "upper dry and lower", "upper cold and warm" is often formed, leading to strong stream weather such as heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, and even tornado. These are strong. The process of flowing weather is often not large, but the energy is strong.

In the eyes of the forecasm, the cold vortex in the northeast is like a boiling pot of water. Everyone understands that the blisters will burst coldly, but it is difficult to judge which blisters will burst first. For regions such as the Northeast, it always breaks into small misfortunes from time to time, and does not stop all year round. Statistics show that in the Northeast region, the thunderstorms caused by the cold vortex of the Northeast are the most.

2. It is a "big brother" with many "big brothers"

The cold wave in winter, the wind and dust in the spring and autumn, and the heavy rain thunderstorms in summer, the catastrophic weather in the year and four seasons is often linked to the cold vortex of the Northeast, and even the catastrophic weather in North China and Jiangnan also has the shadow of the Northeast cold vortex.

In fact, these "crimes" are not groundless. The cold vortex of the Northeast is a very deep circular background. It has a wide range of coverage and a long duration. Many catastrophic weather happens in this background. The cold vortex system is generally at the high level of the atmosphere, and the temperature is relatively low. When the cold air along the north of the rear of the vortex, the north of the vortex invasion south, if the low -level atmosphere heating and heating and temperature increase are more obvious, it will form a "upper cold and warm". The unstable layer knot is easy to form a strong convection weather. And because the large -scale cold vortex moves slowly, similar weather can occur repeatedly at the same place.

In other words, most of the catastrophic weather is not caused by the "self" in the Northeast cold vortex, but the "little brothers" -one by one, the small systems are rushing to make waves. These small systems are often not large and durable for a long time, but the power is not small. If it is superimposed in space, its destructiveness cannot be underestimated.

The cold vortex in the northeast mainly affects the northeast region of my country, causing the catastrophic weather process such as cold waves and strong disaster. Statistics show that in the northeast region, the thunderstorms caused by cold vortex in the Northeast are the most. 64%of the thread lines are related to the cold vortex process. The number of hail days caused by cold vortex accounted for nearly half of the total hail descending day in Northeast China.

Northeast cold vortex not only affects the Northeast region, but also "crimes" across the region, united with other weather systems, affecting North China, Central China, East China and other places. For example, as an important part of the East Asian atmospheric circulation, the cold vortex of the Northeast can cooperate with the high pressure of the high latitudes of Eurasia, the East Asian summer wind, and the Western Pacific subtropical high -pressure. move.

The picture shows the monthly change characteristics of the Cold Vortex process from 1961 to 2021

According to Yan Qi, deputy director and chief forecast at the Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Observatory, the impact of the Northeast Cold Vortex activities at different times is also different. In mid -April, the cold vortex movement in the northeast was fast and north of the position. It mainly affected the northern region. It mainly cools down the wind, which may be accompanied by sand and dust. During the influence period, there are many medium -sized intensity precipitation in the northeast. There are weak convection weather in southern North China.

Sex of characteristic diagram of the characteristic of cold vortex catastrophic weather in the northeast in mid -April

From late April to mid -May, the center of the cold vortex in the northeast is relatively southern. Its southernmost impact can reach Jiangsu and Zhejiang area. The typical catastrophic weather is dominated by strong convection weather such as hail. Among them, the probability of extremely strong winds in northern Jiangsu and Anhui and southern North China may have a large probability of wind, and there may be tornado. From late April to mid -May of the Northeast Cold Vortex Disaster Weather Distribution Charts

From late May to June, the catastrophic weather caused by the cold vortex in the Northeast is mainly based on strong convection weather such as hail and hail in the north, and may occur in the south. The frequency of appearing has also increased significantly.

From late May to June Cold Vortex disaster -natured weather distribution characteristic diagram

From July to September, the catastrophic weather caused by the cold vortex caused by the cold vortex in the Northeast is mainly heavy rain. In this period, the cold vortex of the Northeast often interacts with the typhoon and monsoon in the north, causing strong water dropping. It mainly affects the northern region. There may be strong convection weather such as hail and tornado.

Significance of characteristics of cold vortex catastrophic weather distribution in the Northeast to September to September

3. Still is the key topic of forecast science

my country's meteorological workers began research on the cold vortex of Northeast in the 1950s.

In 2019, the Northeast Regional Meteorological Center established a key laboratory to focus on the influence mechanism and climate abnormal prediction method of the cold vortex of the Northeast Cold Vortex, the Northeast Cold Vortex Weather Mechanism and Forecasting Early Warning Methods, the typical disaster weather mechanism and forecasting and early warning technology of the Northeast Key technologies such as the scale value and weather forecast in high latitudes are trying to seek breakthroughs in the preciseness of the northeast cold vortex forecast warning.

Combined with the needs of the Northeast Cold Vortex Forecasting Early Warning Business and Service, the Laboratory Organization has established the "Northeast Cold Vortex Strong Precipitation Forecasting Technology Business Integrated Platform". The functions include cold vortex rormon inquiries, cold vortex research results, cold vortex recognition, cold vortex rainstorm forecast, cold vortex storm test inspection Essence For the first time in China, the platform has realized the business definition and number monitoring of the Northeast Cold Vortex, and carried out the forecast and early warning business of the Northeast Cold Vortex nationwide.

In response to the problem of cold vortex precipitation and strong stream forecasting problems, the key laboratory uses automatic meteorological station observation data to make positive national smart grid live data, establish ground weather elements in the ground meteorological analysis system, and output 10 minutes and 1 kilometer -resolution ground weather Element analysis products.

At the same time, they improved the quantitative precipitation forecast algorithm, and developed 0 to 2 hours of precipitation exterior forecasting technology; treated Ruitu Northeast model to 0 to 2 hours of rolling and updated forecast products to provide technical support for the monitoring of cold vortex precipitation.

The meteorological department also carried out research on the analysis of the northeast cold vortex law and influence mechanism analysis. Define the intensity index of Northeast Cold Vortex and the North Vortex, reveal the abnormal cause mechanism of the South Vortex and the North Vortex, and use the numerical pattern sensitivity experiments to simulate the mechanism. Complete the establishment of the Northeast Cold Vortex, analyze the circulation situation of the cold vortex process, the total precipitation, the number of precipitation days, the strong convection weather, and the movement path chart. Establish a database of the Northeast Cold Vortex Monitoring.

In recent years, targeted research has been rapidly advanced-

In 2021, the China Meteorological Administration issued the "Northern Northern Cold Vortex Research Business Property Improvement Work Plan (2021-2025)" to further enhance the ability to accurately forecast the cold vortex and its high influence on the weather.

In 2022, the key laboratory and the Central Meteorological Observatory and the Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory officially number were officially launched on the Northeast Cold Vortex. On April 5th, the first "Northeast Cold Vortex Real -time Monitoring Forecast Bulletin" was released. , In the next 48 to 72 hours, the trend forecast and service, and are equipped with the northeast cold vortex road forecast map, national precipitation forecast map, thunderstorms, hail, short -term heavy precipitation, and wind cooling forecast maps. Various information is clear at a glance.

Although we have not been able to achieve 100%prediction of the cold vortex of the Northeast, with the investment of more resources and strength, the source technology support is more powerful, and the monitoring and forecasting and early warning capabilities of the cold vortex induced in the Northeast Cold Vortex will further improve.

The road of forecasting is long, but I believe that one day, the cold vortex of the Northeast will be completely captured by a meteorological worker who will never be idle.

Further reading ↓

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What is the "vortex" in meteorological?

The vortex is composed of "water" and "“ ". There is an explanation in the dictionary that the rotation of the water flow to form a low -lying place in the middle. In addition, there is the interpretation of small round pits and dimples. These explanations have a common point -in the middle low. There is another meaning in the original intention of the vortex -rotation.

So what is the "vortex" in the weather? In fact, vortex is a form of vortex, which refers to various sizes of various sizes in turbulent movement.

In weather forecast and meteorological news, the most often hear "low vortex" and "cold vortex". Let's talk about the low vortex. The low vortex is a vortex rotating counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere. It usually exists at a height from 1500 meters to 3000 meters from the ground or an ocean surface. Depending on the source of its generation and the influence, there are low vortexes in the southwest, plateau low vortex, East Asian low vortex, northwest low vortex, North China low vortex, etc.

The cold vortex, as the name suggests, is a cold vortex, which is mainly existed in the cold -closed low -voltage circulation system that mainly exists in the middle and high -latitude regions (about 5000 meters). The temperature of the center is significantly lower than the surroundings. In the northern hemisphere, "vortex" is rotating counterclockwise; "cold" indicates that it carries cold air. Similarly, the cold vortex that affects our country is also divided into Northeast Cold Vortex, North China Cold Vortex, Mongolian Cold Vortex, etc., which are the most common. Produced by China Meteorological News Agency

Author: China Meteorological News all -media reporter Zhang Yibo Wang Meili Correspondent Ma Donglei

Expert Consultant: The director of the Northeast Cold Vortex Research Office, the director of the China Meteorological Administration's Shenyang Atmospheric Environment Research Institute, Chen Liqiang, deputy director of the Liaoning Meteorological Observatory and chief forecaster Yan Qi

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References: Yan Qi, Li Shuang, Lu Jinglong, Teng Fangda's "Analysis of the Survival Northeast Cold Vortex Process of the Northeast Cold Vortex from 1979-2019"; Path and Forecast Analysis "

Edit: Yang Aoqing

Review: Jiang Hong Duan Hao Shu

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