Experts in the first round of coke rising and fully landing, saying that the probability of continuous price lifting is small

Our reporter Zhang Xiaoyu

After five rounds of decline, the coke price started the first round of raising.

On August 11, as the mainstream steel factories in North China and East China received a 200 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, the first round of coke was fully implemented.

Ji Shaoqing, deputy director of the Operation Division of the China Coal Transport and Sales Association, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter: "On the one hand, the upper -term coking enterprise continues to limit production and reduces social supply. The commercial supplement library has supported the price of coke. While seeing changes in the demand in the later period, the production restrictions of coke should be paid attention to. If the uplink operating rate of coke price recovers, the coke will face market pressure in the later period. "

According to MySTEEL data, on August 9, the procurement price of focusing on the coke of the mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei was raised, the wetting increase of 200 yuan/ton, the dried increase of 240 yuan/ton, and the first round of coke opened. After the adjustment, the first -level coke is now remitted to the factory's tax price of 2490 yuan/ton, and the quasi -first -level drying is 2850 yuan/ton. From August 10th to 11th, the first round of coke rose to land.

IPG China Chief Economist Bo Wenxi told a reporter from the Securities Daily: "The rise in coke prices is largely helpless under cost promotion, because the demand side is actually not strong and inheritance is inheritance. Pressure. "

According to Ge Xin, deputy director of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, due to the recent shock rebound of steel prices, the profits of some finished materials have improved, and the enthusiasm of the re -production of steel mills has also increased. Magnify, so some regional coke companies began to adjust the price of coke, and the steel mills also began to accept the rise of coke.

With the recovery of the steel market, coke companies have recently increased production capacity. According to MySteel data, as of August 4, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 65.35%, an increase of 0.73%over the previous period.

Ningzheng Futures pointed out in the research report that the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired slightly, the willingness to start work is active, and the operating rate has risen slightly. Enterprises have a willing willingness to sell. In terms of steel mills, the profit restoration of steel mills, the increase in blast furnace production, the need to rise, the demand for focusing is better, and actively replenish the library. Taken together, the short -term coke market is stable and strong.

According to the statistics of the Securities Daily, since June, coke prices have decreased by five rounds, and the cumulative decrease is about 1100 yuan/ton. According to the Mysteel survey data, the average tons of cokes in the country once lost 304 yuan. The output of coke enterprises has actively reduced production under the profit -driven. With the recent rebound of steel prices, the price of raw materials has risen.

Although coke prices have opened in the first round, people in the industry believe that "the possibility of continuous rising in the later period is not much high."

Ge Xin said: "Due to the insufficient power of the steel price shock rebound, the space for improvement of steel companies has improved, and the possibility of continuous increase in coke companies in the near future. Coke companies can only increase production restrictions to fight steel coke games. If the domestic steel market is continuously promoted by the implementation of a steady growth policy, the downstream demand has begun to improve significantly, and the space for steel prices will gradually open. The motivation to rise. "

From the view of Bo Wen's view, international energy prices are currently declining, and the demand for coke is not strong under economic downturn, so the momentum of continuing to rise is not great.

Mysteel said that due to uncertainty about the future market, the purchasing strategy will maintain a low inventory state for a long time. Before the demand for the production of the material has not significantly improved, the purchase is incremental, but the incremental amount will be relatively limited. As long as the demand for successful materials has not increased significantly, the reality of the low profit of steel mills will continue to restrict the rise in raw materials, and the height of the bounce of coke will be limited.

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