Chen Xing: The growth rate of CPI enters a high level

Zhongxin Jingwei August 10th. Question: CPI growth enters a high level

Author Chen Xingzhong Securities Macro Chief Analyst

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 10 shows that in July 2022, PPI (industrial producer's factory price index) decreased by 1.3 %% from the previous month, an increase of 4.2%year -on -year; CPI (residential consumer price index) rose 0.5%month -on -month. It rose 2.7%year -on -year.

The year -on -year increase of CPIs has expanded slightly, and the growth rate has risen from flat to a flat.

Data show that the year -on -year growth rate of CPIs recorded 2.7%year -on -year, up 0.2 percentage points from the growth rate in June, and hit a new high since August 2020. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI growth rate was 0.8%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from June.

The year -on -year increase in CPIs expanded, which is mainly driven by the significant increase in food prices. Food prices rose 6.3%year -on -year, a new high since October 2020, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from June. Among them, the growth rate of pig prices changed from -6%to 20.2%; the prices of fresh fruits and fresh vegetables rose 16.9%and 12.9%, respectively; the prices of grain, poultry, eggs and edible vegetable oil rose between 3.4%-7.4%. Non -food prices rose by 1.9%year -on -year, and the increase of 0.6 percentage points fell by 0.6 percentage points. Among them, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas fell year -on -year.

In July, the growth rate of CPI rose from a flat -month growth, recorded by 0.5%, and set a high level since 2008. It was only lower than the same period of 2020 (0.6%), which was mainly supported by food prices. In July, food prices rose from -1.6%to 3%month-on-month, hitting a new high since 2008. The main reason is that pig prices and vegetable prices have increased by seasonality. Affected by factors such as the gradually emerging effect of pig production capacity, gradually appearing, some breeding household pressure fences, and recovery of consumer demand, pig prices rose 25.6%month-on-month, a record high in history; affected by continuous high temperatures in many places, the price of fresh vegetables was from -9.2 month-on-month. %Rose to 10.3%, the increase was higher than the seasonality.

The decline in international oil prices has driven domestic gasoline and diesel prices to decline from rising, resulting in non -food prices rose by 0.4%in June to 0.1%. The number of summer travel has increased, and the service consumption continues to recover. Air tickets, hotel accommodation, transportation fees and tourism prices rose by 6.1%, 5.0%, 4.3%, and 3.5%, respectively.

From the perspective of high -frequency data, since August, the price of pork has fallen at a high level, and the price of fresh vegetables has been from rising to decline. Both the growth rate of the two have declined against the trend. The growth rate of CPI will decline, and the year -on -year growth rate may remain at a high level.

In July, PPI accelerated decline year, and the growth rate was turned on a month -on -month.

Data show that the year -on -year growth rate of PPIs fell to 4.2%year -on -year, which lasted for 9 months, and the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.

The contribution of the new price increase in July was reduced from 38%to 24%. In July, the price of production data rose 5%, the increase fell 2.5 percentage points, and the downlink range was a new high of the year; the price of living materials rose 1.7%, which was the same as in June.

A survey of large -scale industrial industries found that there were 35 industries with price increases, a decrease of 2 than last month. The price of products in the mining and raw material industry has declined significantly year -on -year, of which the price of coal selection and oil and natural gas mining industries fell by more than 10 percentage points year -on -year, leading to other industries; Essence The price increase of agricultural and sideline food processing industry has expanded by 1.2 percentage points.

In July, the PPI turned from the trend in June to a decline, indicating that the purchase price of PMI raw materials in July and the factory price index were down, and both fell to the contraction range. Among them, the price of production materials has increased from the previous month, and the price of living materials has declined from the previous month. The decline in international commodities such as crude oil and non -ferrous metals drives the price decline in relevant domestic industries, and the oil and natural gas mining, oil and coal processing, chemical, textiles and other industries such as petroleum and gas of the petrochemical industry chain are rising from the previous month. The decline in the selection and processing price has expanded. Under the "peak summer" and policy guarantees, the price of coal selection has changed from rising. The decline in steel prices has expanded. Non -metal selection and agricultural and sideline food processing industries have expanded.

Since August, international oil prices have continued to decline, domestic coal prices have fallen, and steel prices have risen from low levels. It is expected that PPI in August or still has a negative growth. Based on the same period of 2021, the year -on -year growth rate of PPI will continue to decline.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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