Between "resistance" and "giving", how harmonious people are

Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.08.10

Since the flood in the flood, there have been more rainfall nationwide, and the floods have been frequent. Data from the Ministry of Water Conservancy showed that since the flood this year, at least 27 provinces in the country have more than 538 rivers in the country, and more than a police floods have occurred, which is 50 % of the same period since 1998. There are the most statistics since the same period.

Note: According to the "Regulations on the Nation's Main River River Flood Number", the major rivers and large lakes of the country and the main rivers water level (traffic) that flowed into the sea across the province reached the flood prevention water level (traffic), and the flood level in 2-5 years may affect the local flood prevention. Safe water levels (flow) can be defined as flood number standards.

From July to August, there are many extreme weather events in my country, and regional flood and drought are heavier than usual. It is predicted that the rainy season is mainly rainy during the flood season. The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Haihe, Huaihe River, Liaohe, and the Yangtze River Basin may occur.

Why is the Great Flood frequent? How can we better cope with the floods? Recently, on the relevant topics, looking at the think tank, Cheng Xiaotao, member of the Expert Committee of the National Disaster Reduction Commission. This article is organized according to the content of the interview.

Interview | Member of the Expert Committee of the Cheng Xiaotao National Disaster Reduction Commission and a professor at the Chinese Academy of Aquatic Sciences

Interview | Li Yafei Watch Think Tank Li Linjing intern

This article is an original article on the lookout think tank. If you need to reprint, please indicate the source of the Source of the Source of the Think Tank (ZHCZYJ) and the author's information, otherwise it will strictly investigate the legal responsibility.

Why is the Great Floods frequently?

At present, my country has made great progress in strengthening the potential of flood resistance in rainwater situation monitoring, flood control control projects, maximizing the potential of flood prevention engineering systems, and as much as possible. Uncertainty.

这是因为在气候变化与快速城镇化背景下特大洪水发生的可能性与不确定性均在增大，一旦洪水规模超出了现状防洪能力，就有可能造成一定范围的淹没，给人民群众生命和Property caused serious threats.

First, the occurrence of a large flood is often associated with the extreme weather situation. It has a certain scarcity for specific areas, but it does not rule out the possibility of short -term reproduction.

Whether a basin or area will form exceeding the standard flood is not only related to the rainfall of the forecast, but also related to the heavy rain, rain distribution, rainy area direction, and whether the peak of dry tributary flood peaks encountered.

In early July 2016, Wuhan suffered a severe flood disaster, and the rain and rain type was extremely unfavorable: heavy rain dropped for 7 days, of which 3 days reached a heavy rain level of over 100mm, and it reached the level of over 200mm on the last day. Essence

In the case of the raining type of rain peaks, in the case of natural stagnation and exudation capacity of the basin, almost all of the last heavy rain turned into runoff, which led to a high water level in the river and lake, causing a big disaster.

Second, even if there is a high standard of flood control projects, it cannot relax the alertness to the over -the -standard flood.

In recent years, my country's reservoir has occurred from emergency floods due to over -standard floods. It effectively avoids the occurrence of malignant dams. However, it is necessary to make an emergency plan for reducing downstream losses and inform the risks to prevent it. Release the flood discharge warning in advance and organize evacuation in time.

On June 23, in Yongde Town, Qingyuan City, Guangdong, rescuers transferred the masses with rubber boats. Xinhua News Agency reporter Deng Hua

Third, the combination of different magnitude overweight floods will form a different drowning state, and it is impossible to ensure safety everywhere. In the basic national conditions of many people in my country, uneven distribution during precipitation, large age changes, and the distribution of population assets and highly coincided with flooding areas, some land "small water returns to people, large water returns to the water" situation. It is difficult to change. In order to protect key areas, it will take the initiative to abandon areas with relatively low population asset density.

Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the harmony of human water and face the floods that must be given up if necessary to give up, so as to better keep the key points.

In June 1994, the Xiangjiang River encountered a large flood, and the embankment in the main city of Changsha and Zhuzhou was finally difficult to keep it. To a fairly, due to the collapse of the embankment in the upstream and the embankment of the opposite shore.

After more than 40 years of high -speed development, the completion area of many cities has expanded outside the original flood control circle, and the development of rural areas has also made people think that it is "unable to flood everywhere". For this reason, people expect to continue to expand the scope of protection of flood prevention and increase flood control. Drainage standards. However, the ability of engineering flood prevention always has a certain limit. With the expansion of the protection of flood control and the enhancement of drainage capacity, under the condition of frequency precipitation, the water level of the river and lake must be raised, and it will fall into the "rising embankment and the high water rising water." The vicious cycle has increased the risk of flood risks that still set up in the original standard.

Scientific research and judgment of flood evolution trends

At present, the cooperation and connection between my country's regions are more extensive. The material flow, capital flow, and information flow are closely connected. The inside of the system is damaged and paralyzed throughout the board. Once a city is affected, its impact will spread to other cities, regions, and even at home and abroad. Essence

From the global perspective, since 2014, global temperatures have reached a new high, which has become the highest time of global temperature since the meteorological record. The flood exceeding the engineering defense capacity will inevitably cause the explosive growth of the losses of the flood, and the threat to the rapid and stable development of the economy and society is even more severe. In the process of irreversible this, my country ’s flood threats, disaster mechanisms, disaster formation models and losses are the same as before.

First, the change of the flood disaster threat.

The normal operation of modern society to the dependence on the life system and the formation of the industrial chain, the scope of the influence and the affected target of the flooding flood far exceeds the submerged areas. Power supply, water supply, gas supply, fuel supply, transportation, communication and other lifelong network systems, as well as the vulnerability of the floods under the flood; SMEs and planting and breeding intensive operators often become severely disaster households. Urban underground space has become a severe place for disaster.

Once the super -standard flood is encountered, the flood prevention engineering facilities itself is the first to become the object of water destruction.

Second, changes in the disaster disaster mechanism of floods.

The presence of the disaster environment is artificially improved or deteriorated, and the external force of the disaster is artificially enlarged or weakened, which will cause changes in the characteristics of the flood and magnitude; It is also possible to be damaged due to the paralysis of the lifeline system, the production chain or the broken capital chain caused by the flood; the environmental pollution, the deterioration of the water quality, and the impact of floods on environmental protection and ecological repair have also become the element of flood prevention considerations.

On June 22, the Xingxing Village, Zhangjiang Town, Qujiang District, Shaoguan City, Guangdong. Xinhua News Agency reporter Deng Hua

Third, the change of flood disaster mode.

The probability of the disaster in the flood is often reduced. However, once the scale of floods exceeds the disaster prevention capacity, the scope of influence has expanded rapidly, and the loss of water disasters has risen sharply; ; The legal system, system, mechanism and planning of emergency response have a significant impact on the process and consequences of the disaster; the adverse effects of disaster are closely related to the recovery and reconstruction speed and loss of sharing.

Fourth, the change of flood disaster losses.

Direct losses caused by the loss of survival conditions due to the paralysis of the lifeline system, the unable to maintain the normal operation of socio -economic activities, and the indirect losses caused by the stagnation of production stagnation caused by the industrial chain interruption, and the proportion of total losses is increasing. The damage is even much larger than the physical hardware of the storage information; the number of garbage increased after the town is flooded, and the disposal will not have a bad impact on the human health and ecological environment in time.

Fifth, the risk of flood risks.

With the increase of flood regulation capacity, the probability of large -scale floods decreases, and the scope of flood flooding is significantly reduced, but the disaster in the area of local affected areas may increase. It is a poverty -stricken area, the weaker the disaster prevention capacity, and the disaster and poverty may form a vicious circle.

At the same time, the current risk distribution and the uncertainty of possible consequences have increased greatly; in the face of super -standard floods, the scheduling of flood control system often requires "two harmful power to take lightness", increased flood prevention decision -making risks, decision errors may affect society stable.

Promote the mode of water control and harmonious water control mode

my country is still in the stage of rapid development, and the expansion of urban expansion will not be reduced. In 2021, the urbanization rate of the permanent population is 64.72%. It is expected that to the middle of the 21st century, the urbanization rate of the population will exceed 70%, but the development of the east and central and western regions is unbalanced. To this end, we must deeply understand the differences in the demand for water treatment for "maintaining existing balance" and "building a new balance". While learning from developed countries, we also need to beware of the "latest concepts and models" that blindly introduce beyond development.

On the one hand, push people's harmony.

In the case of "small water returns to people and the large water returns to water", it is difficult to change, and the construction of water conservancy should pay more attention to the harmony of human water. Under the guidance of the concept of ecological civilization, from the guidance of ecological civilization, from the guidance of ecological civilization Actively discuss the appropriate mode of comprehensive water treatment, that is, continuously improves the level of water security with economic and social development.

For example, for the district along the river along the river, after the flood in 1998, the policy of "retreating to the lake" was implemented. Among them, the retreat is divided into two models: "single retreat" and "double retreat".

"Single retreat" is to retreat without retreating, and the field fields are allowed to continue farming, but there is an overflow weir or sluice on the embankment. Once a large flood occurs, at a critical moment of flood prevention, you can actively enter the flood.

"Double Retreat" is both retreat and retreat, and the embankment retains the gap, allowing floods to enter and exit freely.

However, the actual situation after 20 years is that the sluice of the "single retreat" is difficult to open the flood, because the people of the area are unbearable to see their homeland flooding. Open the gate. Most of the "double retreats" dusk have been changed to "single -retreat", and the gap that has been retained has been blocked again. Because of the land in the area, it can still be cultivated normally in most years.

On August 15, 2020, the Wangjiaba gate (drone) in Funan County, Anhui Province (photo). Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Duan, Zhang Duan

Under the national conditions of many people and few people in my country, if "resistance" and "letting" are extreme models, you may wish to consider adopting a discount mode of each director, that is, "Set upflow weir along the embankment, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatic weir, automatic automatically, automatic "Flowing into the flood" as a way to promote the harmony of people's water. For the embankment, it is not the whole line, but the partial decrease in the appropriate dike section is transformed into a wide -top weir with water. The water level exceeds the weir top, which is naturally entering the flow, avoiding the contradictions of difficult decisions and risks for people to open floods. The weir peak overflow is not only more effective in dehuminating peak peaks, but also slowly increases the water processing process. After the flood in the downtown area, the water level in the inside and outside of the embankment is reduced, which is conducive to reducing the probability of the dyke collapse. The river still maintains its flooding ability. There is no need to wait for the blocking of the mouth to resume the embankment. To shorten the overwhelming time, it is more conducive to restoring production and rebuilding homeland early.

If you consider taking disaster reduction measures such as zone dehuminar inside the area, you can also further reduce the scope and adverse effects of floods.

However, such a measure that is conducive to global and long -term is not easy to implement. Because even if the people in the area understand the rationality of this model, no one voluntarily sets the overflow weir section on the embankment near their home, so as not to be more serious than others.

Therefore, in order to implement the mode of water management in harmony between people and nature, it is necessary to comprehensively use engineering, law, administration, economy, science and technology, and education through institutional mechanism innovation to form more complete guarantee measures.

Make reasonable determination of the position of the weir, the height and width of the weir at the weir at the scientific and technological means; add the fabric to the noodles and the measurement facilities and the surface measures to ensure that the embankment is not collapsed, and try to reduce the scope and time of the flooding. The implementation of the means for compulsory implementation, clarifying the risk sharing is the obligation of the whole people; compensation and guidance with economic means, only if they are willing to adopt such active floods and sharing flood risks, the state will give priority support for rebuilding funds; promote administrative means to promote administrative means Implement, and formulate supporting policies and measures, promote coordination and linkage between departments, and change "one -way promotion" to "two -way regulation", that is, "more" must be linked to more obligations, in order to achieve healthy interaction and grasp Moderate.

Support development, but also guarantee safety

If it is said that people are harmonious and focus on the relationship between human water at the natural level, then the balance of safe development is the harmony of the economic and social level.

Under the new situation, my country has comprehensively strengthened infrastructure construction. During the construction of the project construction, the underwriting conditions under the construction of the pads will lead to changes in the risk characteristics of floods. Some changes in risks are long -term, such as the below of the concave intersection tunnel; some are short -term, such as the auxiliary facilities of the construction period to occupy the flood channel.

Therefore, it is necessary to implement the transformation of the risk of disaster, starting from the improvement of the national modern disaster management system, and form a operating mechanism of the healthy interaction of all parties in construction and development and safety management. The hidden risk of flood risks composed of infrastructure projects will cause disasters under extreme rainstorm. To completely eliminate such risks, it may mean that the construction period cannot be guaranteed, or the construction cost has increased significantly. The occurrence of extreme disasters is a small probability event. During a limited construction period, you cannot be lucky.

To deal with the relationship between development and security, the most effective way is to do a good job of risk identification and assessment of construction periods. For various risks that may be caused, take necessary prevention measures, and formulate practical emergency plans. The regulatory authorities focus on evaluating the targeted and feasibility of their emergency plans, supervise their various preparations for implementing emergency response measures, and conduct training, exercises and assessments for response capabilities to ensure that once major emergencies are encountered, emergency measures can be passed through emergency measures. Come to eliminate hidden risks in a timely manner, so as to be able to support development and ensure safety with the smallest investment.

First, improve relevant regulations for disaster management. For example, the introduction of modern disaster management concepts in the "People's Republic of China Flood Prevention Law", and made more complete expressions on Article 27, 33 and other terms related to construction projects. The organic combination of flood prevention emergency management provides basic legal basis and guarantee. In the "Capital Law of the People's Republic of China", which is currently organized, the corresponding terms should also be considered, and the hidden dangers of disaster risks that are difficult to avoid disaster risk during the construction of the construction project should be clearly proposed to formulate emergency plans based on risk assessment and accept it. Relevant departments supervise and ensure that emergency measures can be effectively implemented.

Second, a benign interactive operating mechanism is formed between relevant departments, governments and construction enterprises to deal with the relationship between development and safety. Due to the disaster management in the real society, it will inevitably involve all aspects of the interests such as "who contributed, who benefits, who is adventurous, and who is responsible". The mechanism and the healthy interaction of the stakeholders can avoid falling into an extreme deadlock.

Third, in risk recognition and hazardous perception, promote the application of information sharing services and new technologies. The risk time and space distribution under the change environment exceeds the cognitive category of experience, or the danger is approaching but failed to perceive the strength of its precursors, which greatly affects the effectiveness of the formulation and implementation of emergency plans. To this end, it is necessary to form a governance system of "departmental linkage, military and land union, social collaboration, and public participation." It is a key link to enhance the credibility of the government and reduce the risk of decision -making, and it is also the most active area of new technology development and application. 5

Layout tough city

Once the construction of natural accumulation, natural penetration, and natural purification was proposed, it was positively responded. However, at the beginning of the construction of pilot cities, regardless of the southeast and northwest, they were all committed to the source control of rainwater on the community scale. It does not rain, the water body is not dark, and the hot island is relieved. "It is hoped that the short -term high -investment model can achieve a full set of high indicators such as resources, environment, landscapes, safety, ecology. As a result, the investment per square kilometer invested as high as horses, but the effect was far less than expected, so it was difficult for local governments to promote enthusiasm by their own financial resources.

At the same time, a large number of new urban areas have continued to create more impervious grounds, and the phenomenon of crowded river beaches and wetlands during urban expansion is still happening. Especially when the area of urban area has expanded sharply and even when the urban agglomeration appears, the outer river becomes an inland river. Rainwater is concentrated in the river through the pipe network, which can easily lead to the rise of the flooding water level. The vicious circle of waterlogging.

Sponge cities should not be limited to community dimensions fragmentation, but also combine with urban dimensions and basin standards. Only when there are three dimensions to connect with each other and comprehensively use the methods of blue, green, and gray water can we form a flood -cutting and orderly urban flood prevention and control system, and solve the problem of "seeing the sea" in the city.

The comprehensive governance model that is adapted to local conditions, gradual progress, natural Taoist law, coordinating, and suitable for Chinese national conditions is still being explored in depth.

The "CPC Central Committee's proposal to formulate the 14th five -year planning of the national economic and social development and the 2013 long -term vision goal" first mention the "tough city": enhance the urban flood prevention and drainage capacity, and build a sponge city and tough cities. Improve the level of urban governance and strengthen risk prevention and control in the governance of large cities.

The tough cities are considered a enhanced version of the sponge city, and then many large and medium cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and other large and medium -sized cities have deployed tough cities.

Improve risk recognition is an important aspect of the construction of tough cities. Many cities including Beijing have simulated the cities that once the city has not encountered a hundred years of heavy rain through scientific and technological means, which areas may have large -scale accumulation of water, and how to effectively treat them to improve the recognition ability of risks.

Another important aspect is to improve our dangerous perception ability. When the precursor information of extreme rainstorms appears, it is necessary to timely determine the category and level of danger in a timely manner, how to deploy forecasts, how to send it, how to send, how to send, and how to organize the people to evacuate?

Japan's early warning release procedures and emergency response linkage mechanisms established by legislation in 2010 are worthy of reference.

For example, the meteorological department predicts that there will be a heavy rainstorm that encountered a hundred years the next day. It can only start from the yellow warning and require professional departments to prepare and citizens to pay attention to the meteorological forecast of rolling release in time. As a result, the upgrade was upgraded to an orange warning. The professional department must start to act, and the citizens must prepare accordingly. At this time, the citizens are about to start. Considering the uncertainty of extreme events and the limitations of forecast technology, the authority released to the grassroots to avoid excessive prevention, and the government will do its best to do a good job of risk information services and rescue of the weak of the disaster.

The construction of tough cities is not to be flooded, but not afraid of flooding. Building a tough city is a comprehensive action involving politics, economy, culture, society, and ecology. The academic industry is still in the contest of hundreds of schools, and localities are also practicing in depth according to local conditions. It is worth our water conservatives to continue to study.

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