Because of it, in 2100, the global mortality rate increased by 60 %!

Text ｜ Xu Rui

Picture source: pixabay

Whether during day or night, extreme high temperatures bring health risks.

An international cooperation study published in "Liuye Knife -Star Health" in August pointed out that it is expected that at the end of this century, the night temperature caused by climate change will increase the global mortality rate by 60%. This shows that the burden of death may far exceed estimates when the average daily temperature rises. Even under the restrictions of the Paris Climate Agreement, the warming caused by climate change may still have an uneasy impact.

The hot environment at night may interfere with normal sleep. Insufficient sleep will cause the immune system and mental health, and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, chronic diseases, inflammation, etc.

This is the first study that evaluates the impact of the risk of death at night on climate change. The results show that by 2090, in 28 cities in East Asia, the average intensity of the "hot night" incident will be doubled, and the temperature will increase from 20.4 ° C to 39.7 ° C. Excessive temperature destroys the normal sleep mode, thereby increasing the burden on the disease.

“夜间温度升高的风险经常被忽视。”该研究论文合著者、美国北卡罗来纳大学公共卫生学院的张玉强（音）说，“但我们的研究发现，热夜的发生比日平均温度变化更快. Around 2100, the frequency and average intensity of the hot night will increase by more than 30%and 60%, respectively, and the average daily temperature will increase by less than 20%. "

The research team composed of China, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and American scientists estimates that from 1980 to 2015, the mortality rate of 28 cities in China, South Korea and Japan was applied to the two climate change models due to overheating.

Through analysis, researchers pointed out that from 2016 to 2100, the risk of death caused by overheating at night will increase by nearly 6 times. This prediction is much higher than the risk of death caused by the average daily warming of the climate change model.

"Our research emphasizes that when evaluating the burden of disease caused by non -optimal temperature, decision makers should consider the additional effects of daytime temperature changes on health. For future climate change, a more comprehensive health risk assessment can help decision makers. To better allocate resources and determine the priority. "Said 阚 Haidong, author of the paper communications and professor of China Fudan University.

In addition, researchers have also found that the temperature difference between the region has led to the difference in temperature at night, and the region with the lowest average temperature is expected to rise the most potential.

"In order to cope with the health risks brought by the rise of temperature under climate change, we should design effective methods to help people adapt to temperature changes." Zhang Yuqiang said, for example, when designing the future heat wave alert system in various places, the night temperature should be included in the night temperature. Inside. This is particularly important for those who may not be able to pay for extra air -conditioning costs and low -income communities.

Zhang Yuqiang pointed out that because the study only covered 28 cities in 3 countries, "the results should be cautious when pushing the results to the entire East Asian region or other regions."

At present, according to the above discovery, researchers try to expand the analysis to the global scope so that they can understand the impact of healthy nights on health on the world.

Related thesis information:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-019-0507-7-7

"China Science News" (2022-08-10 The 2nd edition of the original title of the original title "At night" increased the risk of death at night)

Edit | Zhao Lu

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