Tesla cylindrical battery industrialization acceleration power battery market structure adds more variables

Reporter Li Chunlian

The power battery market that has attracted much attention from the market has waved waves.

Recently, Tesla CEO Musk said at the Tesla Shareholder Conference in 2022 that the 4680 cylindrical battery's weekly output meets expectations, and the company is confident to achieve a large number of production by the end of the year.

Not only Tesla, on August 8th, Yimei Lithium could release a fixed additional renovation (hereinafter referred to as the "revised draft") and said that it would raise 9 billion yuan for cylindrical batteries. In addition, Panasonic, LG new energy and other companies are also promoting the industrialization of cylindrical batteries.

Wang Xuelei, a power battery analyst at Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that with the follow -up of car companies and battery factories, the penetration rate of 4680 cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market in 2025 will exceed 20%. Essence This means that the proportion of cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market will increase significantly.

Many enterprises lay out cylindrical batteries

After Tesla's official announcement of the 4680 cylindrical battery in 2020, Tesla will be used as its main technical route. In February this year, Tesla announced that the Fremont Factory had produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and took the lead in the first quarter of 2022 Used for Model Y model.

Musk also said at the shareholders' meeting a few days ago that Tesla's current cylindrical battery supply can meet the production needs of 1.5 million cars this year. In addition to self -built battery factories, Tesla also purchases batteries from the supplier.

Following Tesla's technical route, domestic companies are also accelerating the layout of cylindrical batteries.

According to the revised draft, the "passenger car lithium -ion power battery project", which is planned to raise 9 billion yuan, is a 46 series of large cylindrical batteries. Yiwei Lithium can be introduced through revised drafts. The 46 series large cylindrical battery is the company's original 18 series and 21 series cylindrical batteries further expand and extend. In addition, the revised draft also claims that only a few companies in the world have the industrialization capabilities of 46 series cylindrical batteries.

Regarding why the cylindrical battery is so large, Yimei Lithium has stated that the cylindrical battery has vaguely become the direction of the ultimate battery technology.

In fact, the leading power battery companies such as Panasonic and LG new energy are also deploying 4680 cylindrical batteries and rapidly promoting mass production.

Both Panasonic and LG New Energy are planned to mass -produce a 4680 battery in 2023. Panasonic factories located in Kagosan Prefecture, Japan are introducing two production lines. LG new energy also begins to build a pilot production line.

A number of power battery companies actively lay out, which first stimulates the needs of equipment and materials.

Hangke Technology recently stated that in the first quarter of 2022, the company's overseas customer project was improved. However, new lithium batteries such as 4680 batteries are gradually mass -produced by large customer technology change. Whether the back -end equipment manufacturers of lithium battery can complete the technical change to meet the needs of various batteries and different manufacturers, it is the company's development difficulty.

This also further proves that power battery companies are constantly working on 4680 cylindrical batteries.

"The 4680 cylindrical battery has obvious advantages in terms of battery life and charging time. In addition, it has larger monomers and higher energy density, and the unit cost is lower." Wang Xuelei told reporters that high nickel, high silicon -high silicon Materials can also highlight the advantages of the battery in terms of thermal performance. Therefore, the volume of 4680 cylindrical battery helps to promote the expansion of the high nickel and high silicon battery material market.

Everbright Securities Analyst Yin Zhong said that with Tesla's global sales growth and 4680 batteries increased in the ternary battery model, it is expected that Tesla's models with 4680 batteries will exceed 1.6 million vehicles in 2025. In Teste, Tesla The penetration rate of the total sales volume is nearly 50%, and the installation volume is expected to reach 123GWh.

Yin Zhong believes that, driven by Tesla and many battery factories, the 4680 cylindrical battery will grow rapidly from 0 to 1 to N in the next five years, becoming a general trend of mid -to -high -end passenger car batteries, which will attract more Multi -manufacturers "admission".

Power battery market pattern may change

From the ternary lithium to the lithium iron phosphate, to the Kirin battery in the Ningde era, the BYD's blade batteries, each innovation of the power battery aims to further reduce costs and increase battery life.

The Kirin battery launched by Ningde Times in June this year, due to its application of ternary system, lithium iron phosphate system, and many people in the industry believe that they can mark the Tesla 4680 cylindrical battery and BYD blade battery.

However, no matter how the industry commented, the power battery technology route is good or bad, and the market will eventually say.

On August 9, the release data of the China Automobile Circulation Association's Automobile Market Research Branch (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Federation") showed that in July Growth. On this basis, the by -All -China Association believes that it is necessary to increase the prediction of 5.5 million vehicles for the wholesale sales of Chinese new energy passenger cars in 2022 to 6 million units.

From the current share of power battery market, in the first half of 2022, Ningde Times was far ahead of the industry with a installed capacity of 70.9GWh and a market share of 34.9%.

So, will the industrialization of large cylindrical battery shake the existing power battery market pattern?

"The application of cylindrical batteries has evolved from 18650 to 2170 from 18650, and to the nearest 4680. This process is mainly led by Tesla. Domestic battery manufacturers mostly use square battery structures." Beijing's special sunshine Qi Haiyu, the president of New Energy, told the Securities Daily reporter that with the in -depth research of 4680 cylindrical battery research on Japan and South Korea and our battery manufacturers in China and my country, the capacity of technology and technology has increased, and the scale of production capacity investment will also occur.Although there are still difficulties for domestic battery manufacturers to have some technologies for 4680 cylindrical batteries, after all, it is a product of industry upgrades and iterations. Powerful battery manufacturers want to overcome and gain a leading position.Yin Zong also said that the innovation of the 4680 cylindrical battery will promote the innovation of the lithium battery industry chain. The original intention is to increase energy density and reduce battery costs.The improvement of effectiveness and reduction of costs are expected to further promote the improvement of global electric vehicle penetration.

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