The second largest island in China, ushered in the most strict test in history

Blue words, reference to Zhengshang reference.

BY Zhengshang Reference (WeChat's best financial reading, passing political and economic information from a professional perspective, in-depth interpretation of financial news, here you can understand more real China) WeChat: ZSNC-OK

Text: Kaifeng

Source: National Economic Strategy (ID: Guominjinglve)

All flights are canceled, the railway is suspended, some flights are returned in the middle, and tourists are placed on the spot ...

In early August, China's second largest island was attacked by Omikon's mutant strains. Sanya, Haikou, Puzhou, Qionghai, Wanning, etc. have implemented static management, facing the most severe epidemic test since 2020.

How much impact is the impact of the epidemic?

01

Why is Hainan Fengchong so strict?

Taiwan is the largest island in China and Hainan is the second largest island.

Taiwan is located along the southeast coast of China, and Hainan is located in the south. It looks at the sea through the Sea of ​​Zhanjiang, Guangdong through the Qiongzhou Strait to the north.

Although Hainan to Guangdong has recently been less than 20 nautical miles, it has not been connected for economic benefits and construction risks, so far, there is still no cross -sea bridge or submarine tunnel. If you want to go out of the island, you can only use flights or ferry.

Hainan is a prestigious international tourist island. It has attracted tourists from all over the country. The frequent flow of personnel flow has undoubtedly exacerbated the difficulty of preventing and controlling the epidemic.

Sanya is also the largest tourist town in Hainan: tourists' reception volume accounts for 1/4 of the province, and the total tourism revenue exceeds half.

In 2021, Hainan received 81.043 million tourists at home and abroad, with total tourism revenue of 138.434 billion yuan. Among them, Sanya received 21.62 million tourists overnight, with a total tourism income of 74.7 billion yuan.

You know, the entire Hainan Island has only more than 10 million people who live in a permanent population, while Sanya has only 10 million people. The monthly number of passengers has exceeded 1 million, and the peak period is more than 2 million. The development of the tourism industry is evident.

Although Hainan's tourism resources are quite abundant, most areas are in the northern edge of the tropical. Only Sanya across 18 degrees north latitude, the world -recognized holiday destination "gold latitude". Victory.

However, there are two sides in everything, the tourism industry is developed, and there are many tourists from other places. In the era of the epidemic, it has become a new risk factor:

Once Sanya becomes an epidemic center, the risk of overflowing to the island and the spread of the province is far more than the general cities.

What's more, Sanya is the pillar of Hainan tourism.

Once Sanya is severely damaged due to the epidemic, the economy of Hainan Island is inevitable.

This is why Hainan has to take the most stringent sealing means.

02

Why do GDP grow negatively in these 5 provinces?

In fact, before this epidemic came, the Hainan economy was facing tremendous pressure.

In the second quarter of this year, a total of 5 provinces in the country grew negatively.

In addition to Shanghai and Jilin, which were once in the episode of the epidemic, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Hainan provinces also encountered a rare economic decline.

However, in the first half of this year, Hainan has not been directly impacted by the epidemic. Why can't GDP be up?

There is a difference between the epidemic and indirect impact. The city in the center of the epidemic is naturally the first, but the industry that depends on the country's population will also be affected.

Hainan Island is an international tourist island, and the tourism industry is one of its three pillar industries. Whether the tourism industry is highly related to the national epidemic situation.

In the first half of the year, local cases occurred in many provinces, and the major flow of people across the country was hindered. Traveling across provinces and even cross -cities became difficult, and both the tourism and catering industry grew up.

The impact of tourism is directly reflected in consumption.

Data show that in the second quarter, Hainan consumption fell 15.2%year -on -year, a decrease of 10.6 percentage points larger than the country.

The consumption of Hainan, more than one -fourth is composed of tax -free sales of outlying islands, and the main consumption for outlying islands is tourists from all over the country. Essence

Therefore, although Hainan has not encountered a direct impact of the epidemic, the epidemic waves in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen have inevitably spread to Hainan.

The direct impact of Omikon will increase the difficulty of Hainan's economic recovery.

At present, the epidemic has spread from Sanya to counties and cities such as Haikou, Lizhou, Dongfang, Wanning, Lingshui, etc., and the impact on Hainan's tourism industry has affected the entire province from Sanya.

Although the wave of Sanya ’s flights back, passengers resettlement, and half -priced at the hotel, although there is no lack of practical necessity, it is bound to make the recovery of the weakened tourism industry stranded, and it will inevitably affect the local tourism image.

After all, no one can afford to travel for a few days, but isolated for a week or even longer.

03

What should I do if I lose the tourism industry?

Tourism, what about Hainan economy?

If it is placed in a few years ago, the huge Hainan Island only has two leading industries, the tourism industry and the real estate industry, and the impact of the impact of the epidemic may be fatal.

Nowadays, Hainan has obtained the blessing of a free trade port and has become one of the areas with the largest strategic tilt in the country. Although the impact of the tourism industry is huge, it may not be indigestion.

In fact, since 2018, Hainan has removed the attitude of the strong man's wrist to remove its dependence on the largest pillar industry -real estate, but the economy has not fell, but has led the whole country many times.

Behind this is the result of the strong hedge of the bonus of the free trade port. Under the blessing of the free trade port policy, Hainan has deployed the "3+1" leading industry that spans the sea, land, and air:

Tourism, modern service industries, high -tech industries and tropical characteristics.

Data show that in 2021, Hainan's "3+1" leading industry added value to 70%, of which the value -added of tourism industry accounted for 9.1%of GDP, and the comprehensive contribution rate of tourism in the province's GDP was 33.89%. It is about 4%.

At the same time, Hainan's dependence on real estate has gradually declined.

Among them, real estate development investment accounts for GDP's proportion of GDP from 40%to 21.3%. Although it still ranks first in the country, it has fallen sharply.

Real estate investment has agreed, but with the help of free trade and port policies, industrial investment and infrastructure investment quickly completed the remedy, and foreign trade imports and exports were rushing, thus becoming a backbone of the economy.

In the first half of this year, Hainan Real Estate Investment fell by 2.1%year -on -year, but industrial investment and infrastructure investment increased by 13.8%and 15.6%, respectively, and imports and exports increased by 56.0%year -on -year, becoming the biggest highlight of economic development.

With the advancement of free trade port policies, the driving effects of industrial and infrastructure investment and foreign trade import and export will gradually be reflected.

04

How high is the ceiling of the free trade port?

How high is the ceiling in Hainan?

Although Hainan is the second largest island in China, its total GDP is ranked fourth in the country. It is only higher than western provinces such as Qinghai Ningxia, Tibet, and is less than ordinary prefecture -level cities in coastal areas.

In 2021, the total amount of GDP in Hainan Province was 647.52 billion yuan, which was less than 1/4 of the neighboring provincial capital Guangzhou.

Looking back at history, although Hainan has always benefited from national strategy, it has also taken a lot of detours.

In 1988, Hainan was separated from Guangdong's jurisdiction and established a special economic zone. This is the fifth Special Economic Zone in my country after Shenzhen, Shantou, Zhuhai, and Xiamen.

This is the first leap in Hainan.

However, due to excessive dependence on real estate, in the 1990s, it encountered the first largest real estate bubble in history, and eventually left the legend of "Tianya Haijiao Building".

In 2010, Hainan was approved by the International Tourism Island, which was the second leap. Since then, the tourism industry has become an important pillar industry in Hainan.

The third leap is the 30th anniversary of the construction of the province. Hainan has comprehensively deepened reform and opening up. It has been listed as a national strategy that is equivalent to the coordinated development of Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei, integrated in the Yangtze River Delta, and the construction of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area.

Subsequently, Hainan was further given the heavy responsibility of building a free trade port, and the saying of "second Hong Kong" was endless.

The reason why Hainan Free Trade Port has attracted much attention because it has been given the heavy responsibility of "zero tariffs, low tax rates, closing operations, freedom of trade, and freedom of personnel" in the Mainland.

This has formed a certain degree of benchmarking with Hong Kong.

Although Hainan has a huge gap between the international financial center and the international trade center and Hong Kong, there is a main force on "shopping paradise" and "zero tariffs".

According to the timetable, Hainan will be closed in 2025, and then the entire Hainan Island will become a free trade port with zero tariffs.

These policies will help Hainan from pure tourist islands to a investment place integrating finance, trade, tourism, advanced agriculture, and high -tech industries.

The prospects of Hainan are still worth looking forward to crossing the hills of the epidemic.

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