Asian natural gas prices have skyrocketed nearly 10 times that Japan and South Korea are facing the dilemma of "difficulty in supply"

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Huiyin Guangzhou report

Japan and South Korea are trying their best to compete for natural gas.

On August 8th, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said that as the third largest imported importer in the world, South Korea is seeking to purchase more goods to meet the expectations of domestic demand growth. About 34%increased to about 90%. The department said this is due to the "height" uncertainty brought by the summer heat waves and the Russian and Ukraine conflict.

In addition to South Korea, recently, Japan, the world's second largest liquefied natural gas importing country, is also buying natural gas. In this regard, some traders believe that Japan and South Korea seeks to ensure the supply of winter and after several months, because they are worried that the price of natural gas will rise with the increase in European demand later this year.

The concerns of Japan and South Korea and other countries are not groundless, and the prices of Asian natural gas are soaring sharply with the strong needs of European countries.

Recently, it is reported that the price of LNG (LNG) in Asia (LNG) has currently risen by nearly 10 times the price of the summer. As of August 5, LNG futures prices facing Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea were $ 44.66 per 1 million British heat units (BTU). In contrast, the Dutch ownership transfer center (TTF) benchmark natural gas futures price price of the natural gas price direction of the European natural gas price is much higher than the benchmark price of Asia. As of August 8th, the benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures price was 191 euros/sum hours.

Wang Yongzhong, director of the International Commodity Research Office of the World Classics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that due to the comprehensive sanctions on Russia's energy implementation of Russia, the purchase of Russia's natural gas was greatly reduced. It is difficult for pipeline natural gas to be converted into liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the short term. In addition, the infrastructure construction required for LNG transportation takes a longer time. Therefore, it is inevitable that natural gas supply in the market has occurred for a long time.

How to spend this crisis of natural gas shortage in Japan and South Korea, which relies on energy imports?

Japan and South Korea encountered "difficulty in supply"

Although the price of natural gas soared rapidly, Japan and South Korea still insisted on "gas hoarding" to reserve in autumn and winter.

On August 8, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said that the Korean State -owned Natural Gas Company has been conducting spot procurement since April, and it has purchased about 3.5 million tons in July alone. The current inventory is about 1.81 million tons, which is higher than the lowest threshold of 910,000 tons in winter. Although the current inventory has exceeded the lowest threshold in winter, South Korea has not slowed down the pace of "buying qi". The department stated that the inventory would increase the inventory from the current 34%to about 90%by November.

In this regard, Du Bingqin, an analyst at Everbright Futures Energy Chemical Engineers, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that South Korea has been actively purchasing LNG to supplement domestic inventory since the second quarter of this year, but it still needs to purchase 10 million tons before the end of the year to meet the winter need.

It is also under pressure because of insufficient energy storage. Recently, the country's public enterprises are also accelerating the purchase of LNG. At the same time, both Japan and South Korea had to pay unprecedented high prices to buy natural gas. It is reported that in 2019 before the outbreak, the average price of LNG in summer was about $ 5, and today the price has exceeded 9 times when the price is low.

Wang Tong, an analyst at the Institute of Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, believes that this round of Asian natural gas prices have skyrocketed from European natural gas tension. He told the 21st Century Economic Herald reporter that "Japan and South Korea are all countries with high dependence on energy imports. The import dependence on natural gas is 98%and 99%. This is to meet the needs of winter gas in winter. But before Japan and South Korea announced in March and April this year, respectively, respectively, respectively. And 3%. "

There was a decrease in import volume imports, and the competition of major buyers in Europe was facing the competition of major buyers in Europe. Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea relying on natural gas will naturally be under great pressure.

Wang Chengqiang, director of the New Era Futures Research Institute, also told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that 30 % of the past European natural gas supply rely on Russia and abandon Russia's supply, which means that more imported imports are required. The tide will inevitably rely on the imported Japan and South Korea to have unprecedented stress. He believes that "Russia and Ukraine's conflict with the West have disrupted the global energy trade flow and exacerbated the problem of imbalance and shortage of regional supply."

Judging from the natural gas import structure, Wang Chengqiang believes that the import of natural gas in Japan and South Korea will be largely affected by the exports of Australia and the United States. Qatar, the other 9%came from Russia; in South Korea's LNG imports, 25%came from Qatar, 21%came from Australia, 18%came from the United States, and there was almost no supply from Russia. "

Under the interference of the "big buyer" of the natural gas in Europe, the impact has gradually emerged. First of all, the United States has significantly increased the export of natural gas in Europe. Data from the US Energy Intelligence Agency show that in the first four months of this year, 74%of the United States' liquefied natural gas exported to Europe, which was higher than the annual average of 34%last year. The report states that Asia is the main destination of 2020 and 2021. Also find energy to replace natural gas is the reality

Japan and South Korea planned "gas hoarding", and South Korea even proposed to increase the stock of natural gas to about 90%. But now, whether the goal can be achieved is still unknown.

Wang Yongzhong told reporters: "The current natural gas in the market is small and the price is higher. It is estimated that it is difficult to reach the goal of Japan and South Korea."

Wang Tong believes that the premium of European benchmark natural gas prices (TTF) for Japan and South Korea's benchmark liquefied natural gas (JKM) will cause more LNG to flow into the EU, resulting in the lack of Asian natural gas supply.

Many interviewed analysts told reporters that the trend of natural gas prices will not be optimistic for the next time. Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that Russia will still have the possibility of "qi" to the European Union in the future. Therefore, at least this year, the situation of high natural gas prices will not change.

Wang Tong also told reporters that with the approaching season of natural gas consumption, demand recovers will support the price of natural gas. Therefore, before Russia and Western countries have reached a settlement, natural gas still has the potential to rise. High -priced natural gas will force some countries to reduce the consumption of natural gas and turn to other energy sources.

To some extent, coal has become a substitute for natural gas.

Recently, it is reported that the largest steel company in Japan and the global commodity trade giant, Jianeng, can reach a coal supply agreement for March next year with a purchasing price of $ 375 per ton. The agreement may be one of the most expensive coal procurement contracts signed by Japanese companies in history. It is reported that the new Japanese railway uses fuel to generate electricity for its industrial base and supply power to the Japanese power grid.

"Because of the large amount of natural gas in autumn and winter, it is estimated that Japan and South Korea will increase the amount of coal to replace natural gas." Wang Yongzhong is still more optimistic about using coal as a replacement fuel. Coal production capacity, and the slowdown of global economic growth will affect the demand for coal, so the price of coal is expected to fall.

However, Du Bingqin expressed concern about the current Japanese and South Korea's practice of replacing natural gas. "As the second largest exporter of Russian coal before, Japan and Australia have a shortage of structural shortage of coal exports in Indonesia and Australia to meet their own demand and the global coal market supply. Easy, "she said.

Japan and South Korea have made great progress on the way to develop renewable energy, but the reality is that the effectiveness of renewable energy is still different from their expectations.

Du Bingqin told reporters that Japan and South Korea are still highly relying on traditional energy power generation, and about 68%and 56%of the two countries are from fossil fuel. Cleaning energy power generation is "difficult to solve the thirst for long water" for Japan and South Korea, and it is difficult to effectively make up for the energy supply gap caused by the current natural gas and coal shortage.

Specifically, the current capacity of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic energy is relatively small, and the amount of power is mostly dependent on the weather conditions. Although the new South Korean government has decided to abolish the previous nuclear power policies and restart the construction of nuclear power engines, the relevant related, but the relevant is related, but the relevant is related, but the relevant is related to the relevant, but the relevant is related to the relevant. The implementation of the policy still takes time; Japan also plans to restart the nuclear power, but due to the previous disclosure of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, Japan has difficulty in restarting nuclear power.

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