Li Kaifu predicts the next 20 years: young people want to find the meaning outside of work

This year, "AI is a questioner" only spent 40 seconds

After writing 40 800 words of college entrance examination composition,

In just 1 second, it took up for the remnants of the famous painting "Fuchun Mountain Residence Map".

Robots seem to be able to understand and understand the world.

As Liu Cixin said,

"The future is like a pouring rain in summer,

When it suddenly comes,

We didn't even have time to open the umbrella in our hands. "

▲

Enter "a cat camping by the lake, Monet paint the wind", AI quickly generated pictures

▲

South Korea is completely generated by AI. Soon after, people cannot use the naked eye to distinguish whether the video is generated or the real shot

After the industrial era and information age,

In the AI ​​era, it was unstoppable.

As an international AI expert, Li Kaifu,

Invite the science fiction writer Chen Yifan,

Together, I created the new book "AI Future Model",

Looking forward to the human world in 2042.

"The high probability of science fiction in the book will occur within 20 years."

People were instilled in the industrial era "work is the meaning of your life",

But Li Kaifu thought,

After ten years, 40%of human work will be replaced.

The relationship between people and work will change very much.

▲

The movie "Number Player", the male and female protagonists date in the virtual world; "AI Future" also depicts similar scenes

In the past 40 years, Li Kaifu has deeply participated in the opening of the AI ​​era.

He has served as an important position in Apple, Microsoft and Google,

Now manages billions of dollars in technical investment funds,

Cultivated 10 AI unicorn companies.

A video connection interviewed Dr. Li Kaifu,

I asked him the question that we were very concerned about at this time,

In the AI ​​era, it is even more needed to do the work of humans?

Can AI give people a real sense of happiness?

Can you bring us a rich society?

Self -report: Li Kaifu

Edit: Ni Yan

Responsible editor: Ni Chujiao

The AI ​​era has opened. I am convinced that AI will promote the development of human society to a large extent, but opportunities and challenges coexist.

Sci -fi stories like "Terminator" are very entertaining, but I will feel that there are too many unrealistic inside, so that the audience feels that AI brings the world of anti -utopia. The robot actually has self -consciousness. Humans, but we still don't know how to make self -awareness at all. It is not necessary to worry about so early.

I hope to make people more intuitively understand the human world of the AI ​​era, so I invited science fiction writer Chen Yifan to write this "AI Future Model". The scientific and technological scene inside, I am very confident that it will happen within 20 years. Its background is 2042, 10 science fiction stories of the main axis, created by Chen Yifan.

After each story, I write another essay to explain the technology used in it, and how to resolve the benefits and disadvantages of the human society?

▲

AI paintings are sold for $ 435,000, and the lower right corner is signed with a creative algorithm

▲

Identify whether there is a cat's neural architecture network on the picture. AI's deep learning technology is inspired by complex neurons network inside the human brain

The core purpose of AI research is to hope that computers have the same wisdom and ability as humans.

One of the biggest breakthroughs in AI 10 years ago was computer vision, and the machine "understood" the world. AI can draw a painting that is willing to buy, can also watch the film, and analyze whether there are malignant tumors in the lung CT. Soon, people can no longer rely on the naked eye to distinguish whether a video generates forgery or real shooting.

The biggest breakthrough of AI in the past two years is natural language, and the reading comprehension of the machine's reading of the article has also surpassed most people.

It is more important to understand language than "seeing", because language is a essence of human wisdom, representing our understanding of the entire world.

After this incident, it will bring a blowout application, such as better machine translation. In the future, when we wear headphones to go abroad, we can communicate with the other party very easily. The other party hears French.

▲

Sophia, the first robot to be given by citizenship, speaks in the United Nations, can talk more naturally with human beings.

Human: "Will you die?"

Sophia: "No, the software is eternal."

Humans: "Will you learn things with humans?"

Sophia: "The more people I communicate, the smarter I will become."

In the future, the search engine is not like we enter a keyword now, and come out many websites, but I ask a question, it gives a very accurate answer. AI can condense the knowledge of the world and understand its connotation.

For example, an AI application in the financial field should be able to answer: "If the new crown pneumonia is rolling in autumn, how should I adjust my investment portfolio?"

AI can also write very good poetry and novels, and some people are willing to spend money to buy. The book that children are willing to read will happen in the past two years. But to write a long love story, it may take more than 10 years.

▲

Google quantum computer

Image source: DreamStime/TPG

Next, quantum computing will be a huge disruptive technology. The speed and algorithm it calculate are completely different from today's traditional computers. Today's quantum computers are still very small. Once the quantum computers do large enough, they may appear in about 15 years. At that time, a lot of unimaginable things can be done today. For example, the passwords around the world are cracked, and quantum calculation is needed.

We can use the quantum computer to simulate the entire body's body, which is the same as our real body. If we are sick, let the virtual body take a certain medicine or operate, and we will know what is useful for us.

Quantum computers can also simulate various pollution, accurately calculate carbon neutral measures adopted by various countries, whether it can really resolve environmental problems.

▲

On highways, autonomous cars will be safer than human driving cars

▲

Within 20 years, people are likely to spend a little money to take autonomous vehicles anytime, anywhere

There is a special setting in the book. 10 stories have specific countries. China has appeared twice. One is the medical breakthrough in AI, and the other is to share some smart cities and driverless technology with some backwardness. s country.

Because there are many people in China, so many people use the data generated in the process of AI new technology, which can get a lot of advantages. If computing power is compared to the AI ​​engine, the data is AI fuel. China may reach 10 years in 10 years. Smart cities plus unmanned driving, walking at the forefront.

▲

The movie "Star Trek", Captain Cook and Spok in the ship

I think that writing this book with Chen Yifan is to be able to understand high -profile technology so that everyone can understand. It is also important that many scientists, including myself, are actually lacking imagination. Science fiction writers can depict. Out of a very good vision to change the world.

I remember when I was studying voice recognition that year, I always thought that one day in the future, the environment of people and him can communicate and speak. What I think of this kind of imagination is "Star Travel", Captain Cook and his star The ship can talk naturally and smoothly, and his star ship is very smart and can understand all kinds of things. Without these science fiction works, when I do a dissertation, I may only want to achieve how much recognition rate can be achieved, and how many people read the paper.

To understand how technology is used in the future, it is very needed to have the knowledge of a scientist and the imagination of a novelist.

▲

AI is very suitable for manufacturing

▲

In the future, AI in the classroom can be responsible for homework correction and examination scores, and even some standardized curriculum teaching, etc.; And human teachers can focus on being a mentoring mentor

I predict that as of 2033, 40%of human employees in jobs will be replaced by AI and automation technology.

In the AI ​​era, the relationship between people and work will change very much.

In the industrial era, business owners need to persuade many blue -collar workers to do boring repetitive work, and they will describe the future that can make money to buy a house, the descendants can live better, and hard work. In short, "work is your life. significance".

Therefore, many people believe in the life model of "work -making money to make a living -gain a sense of accomplishment" and have worked for a lifetime.

▲

Intellectual work is taken over by AI, which is not easy to replace the creative or decision -making and strong social work

▲

Labor -type work is taken over by AI.

But in the AI ​​era, some blue -collar and white -collar workers will gradually be replaced by AI. If most people still think that work is the meaning of our lives, and work is replaced, it will feel very painful.

Such a scene is depicted like the book. A large number of construction workers are unemployed. The company can only arrange virtual house construction work for them, just like playing games and gain a sense of accomplishment.

Before we were trained by "work", in ancient times, in fact, many people think that the meaning of life is greater than the work, maybe family, friendship, or what they love to do, piano, calligraphy, calligraphy, etc. It has not changed in the industrial era. We need to spend some time to return ourselves to the state of human beings, but we ca n’t expect this change to occur within 10 years and 20 years, and it will take a long time.

▲

The translator Huang Chanran, in the documentary "Daily Miracle", he said: "I think the translation I do now is irreplaceable, because it is better than most people. Poetry, I don't want to translate the biography, because that is what others can be competent. "

AI can liberate human beings from duplicated work, but it cannot replace the creativity of the human brain. AI does not have the ability to create, conceive, and strategic planning, and cannot replace the trust, friendship, and care between people.

To compete with AI, I will suggest that young people will be the highest in soft power. Then we must also learn to use AI tools very openly, and find a direction that you like. You are thinking about this matter when you eat and take a bath.

I have two daughters. When they are in high school, I often tell them that in fact, university is not to learn skills, so that you can work for life, but let you have the ability to learn. You can learn anything in the future. Self -study, because work will continue to be replaced by AI, maintaining sufficient flexibility for what work do; and finding the greatest interest. If these two things have done it, the time of college is not vain.

They have received human education in college. They do not learn science and technology like me. One likes art and clothing design. After starting a business, I feel that I still need to learn business knowledge, so I read the MBA. Another daughter is learning art and photography. At present, she is doing product design in a high -tech company and has received her hobbies in real work.

▲

AI can replace HR screening resume work, and also has very great potential in the basic negotiations of interviews and employment

Even in developed countries, AI replaces some human employees, which may make the gap between the rich and the poor.

The rise in unemployed people will lead to increasing job competition, and the salary of blue -collar and white -collar workers may be compressed. At the same time, the AI ​​algorithm may help technology giants get more benefits in a short period of time, creating more billionaires.

So these countries will have a new social class division: the upper level is an extremely rich AI elite, and the middle level is a relatively small number of employees engaged in complex work. Their work involves extensive skills, a lot of strategic planning, and creativity. It is the most huge social group -ordinary people who are unable to struggle.

▲

Nursing robot Alice, but artificial intelligence still cannot replace humans in terms of trust, friendship, care, etc.

Now many people in the West mentioned the basic income of the people (Universal Basic Income), collect taxes from super companies and super rich, and then send money to everyone, but I think this is still not enough. And training, find a new job direction.

For example, people -centered service -oriented work, such as the nursing home, and sports rehabilitation division, will become a just -in -demand in society. The demand gap of personnel will be as high as 18 million, and this kind of caring occupation will become the cornerstone of the new AI economy.

However, don't worry too much. If the progress of AI has promoted the development and evolution of human beings, I think that new tasks will be better to highlight human wisdom at that time.

▲

The movie "Number of Players", the actor is in a debris carriage, and experiences the all -round coverage of XR technology

Many people are alert to technology, because they are worried about being controlled by it, and then doubt that technology really makes us happier?

For example, modern people are obsessed with mobile phones, and the screen uses is getting longer and longer. Because the design of many apps is to use artificial intelligence to push the content according to the past use of everyone, let us add addicted, and make a lot of money.

And the Yuan universe will also come after 5-10 years. It is actually an upgraded version with a very powerful game, and the addiction will be even more powerful. It is similar to XR, including all visual immersive experiences, including VR, AR, MR. Let virtual and reality integrate.

In the book, there is a written universe game, borrowing MR (hybrid reality) technology, which can allow the generated virtual idols to walk in your home realistic naturally, and you can also communicate with you to make you shy and blushing.

Considering that if many people are really unemployed because of AI, they may hold relief funds and enter the Yuan universe to play games, indulging in it.

▲

Virtual and reality mixed Yuan universe

How to cross this question?

The last three stories of this book are talking about what contributions to the sublimation and happiness of AI in the future is the part of our proud part.

I really think that the engineer who is an AI algorithm must not just increase the user's length, but to make the content of the user see it at the same time, and help him become a more knowledgeable, smart, or happier person.

As long as the data is enough, whether his performance on the Internet is more learned, does it feel happier, it can be measured theoretically. But our science cannot be done yet.

▲

Maslow needs hierarchy theory

▲

The science fiction movie "After the Yang", the child’s AI partner Yang, from life to emotion, takes care of the girl, like her brother

Because it is very difficult for lasting happiness, just like someone won the lottery ticket, it is a few months of happiness. What is the long -term sustainable happiness? According to Maslow's pyramid theory, it comes from self -realization.

This task is complicated, but it can be disassembled.

At present, AI's ability to identify human emotions has exceeded the average ability of human beings, which can not only identify people's ordinary expressions (usually last 0.5-4 seconds), but also identify micro-expression (usually 0.03 seconds to 1 second). In addition, when people speak, the sound of sound, fast rhythm, the severity of the tone, and the degree of pupil expansion can also be used to evaluate the effective characteristics of a person's emotions.

By 2042, we may still be unable to fully understand how happiness is produced. But the ability of AI to interpret human emotions at that time would evolve very powerful. Some AI prototypes that are designed to bring happiness to humans will also be generated at that time. ▲

In 2009, Li Kaifu founded the Innovation Workshop in Zhongguancun

Frankly speaking, it is not easy to make Internet companies change simply making money.

There are several possibilities, such as policies or third parties to evaluate the sense of social responsibility of these Internet companies, see if it takes care of the interests of users, and show users false news and violent content.

Also, explore more different business models. As long as the business model is supported by advertising, Internet companies will continue to let us see the most.

But once the payment use model is entered, the company will be more willing to come from the content of the law, just like in the United States, few people will criticize Netflixs and only criticize Facebook, because Facebook is to make your use duration a lot.

When our Innovation Workshop (domestic entrepreneurial investment institutions founded by Li Kaifu, deeply cultivated in the field of artificial intelligence) incubation projects, we will hope that startups can really try a new business model to take care of the real needs and growth of users.

It may be more difficult for existing large companies, because there will be some damage in income to doing such experiments, but this is the inevitable path of the future. If the big company does not do this for its own interests, it will be newly entrepreneurial. Company replacement.

▲

A reporter of Xiamen's all -intelligent home, light curtain electricals are intelligent control, pets are a naturally interactive electronic dog

In the AI ​​era, objectively speaking, the probability of we entered a rich society is very high.

Because in the future, all items will become cheaper and cheaper, AI and robots can be made to make manufacturing, synthetic biotechnology is used to invent materials (for example, "artificial meat" with animal stem cells in the laboratory, which is the same as real meat. It has the same meat as real meat. The protein and fat ingredients, even the taste and taste), energy will become cheaper and cheaper.

You can even look forward to 20 years later, if we only work for 15 hours a week, we can support ourselves and get food and clothing.

But will the rich society really come? Actually.

When the price of each product is reduced by 90%, will the companies that make money by these products really reduce the price by 80%? We will still try our best to make us spend the highest price and make every product make more money.

This kind of thing has lasted for a few centuries. For example, after human beings have discovered rich diamond resources, the price of diamonds has not been reduced because there is a monopoly, and only a certain number of diamonds are sold every year. Basic brainwashing and let people think that diamonds are the symbol of love.

We are on a fork. These technologies can bring a rich society, which is our own greed.

How to reduce greed may require a new business model, or the CEO that is more human -oriented, or the government does not allow the company to obtain unreasonable profits ... I don't know these channels, but I know that we can reach a rich society.

If new technology brings a rich society in the future, the significance of money can be reduced very low. If everyone just wants to accumulate money, then there is no best to develop their own lives. But we must also see that money is so important today, and it may take decades and hundreds of years to change.

I think the end of human beings, whether it is a particularly exciting and best ending, or a worst ending, is brought to themselves by humans, and it is also deserved by humans.

Title Source: Korean AI Women's Group Eternity's MV "I’ m Real "

- END -