The commodity weekend newspaper 丨 crude oil has vomited for nearly half a year, and the steel society inventory has dropped seven consecutive companies. The price of pigs may continue to decline

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

This week (August 1-August 5), international crude oil prices continued to fall, and the overall price was returned to the level of the same period in late February. The European natural gas crisis continues, and the European Commission formally approves the "gas saving" plan, calling on the EU countries to reduce the amount of natural gas by 15%on the basis of the previous year's average.

Gold, copper, aluminum and other metals have performed smoothly this week. In the context of the seven -week consecutive consecutive consecutive consecutive steel social inventory, the steel market situation has begun to improve in the context of the early reduction of production and the gradual end of the off -season.

US oil fell below $ 90/barrel

The price of crude oil continued to fall this week, the minimum of WTI crude oil futures fell to $ 87/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell to $ 93.20/barrel. As of the morning of August 6, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in September rose 0.53%to close at $ 89.01/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in October rose 0.85%to close at $ 94.92/barrel. Essence

Judging from the news, OPEC+Organization decided to increase its production slightly by 100,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased, and the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations also restarted again. Iran stated that it has been prepared to return to the international crude oil market.

Despite the continuous disturbance of various types of messages, the market generally believes that the current OPEC+production capacity is quite limited. Poor economic prospects drive the decline in demand for crude oil, which has become the main factor that leads to decline in oil prices. However, due to the short -term difficulty of global energy supply, it is expected that oil prices are expected to lack room for further decline.

EU Council approves the "gas saving" plan

CCTV reported that on August 5, the European Council officially approved the "gas -saving plan", that is, the EU countries will compare the average natural gas consumption of natural gas in the past five years from August 1st to March 31 next year. Dosage; this scheme is not mandatory, and also has some exemptions and exceptions to avoid the power supply crisis.

European gas price is high. The Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures returned to more than 200 euros/sum hours on August 1st. Since then, it has been maintained near the price. It was closed at 196.32 euros/MWh on August 5.

The dollar is strong, gold investment is weak

After falling into the underground valley in mid -July, the international gold price has continued to rebound, and this week's gold prices have risen slightly after the rise and fall. As of the close of August 5, New York's gold futures rose to $ 1791.18/ounce, an increase of 0.4%during the week; on July 21, New York's minimum price fell to $ 1678.4/ounce.

The World Gold Association pointed out that in July, the US dollar continued to strengthen and weak inflation expectations, which jointly led to a decline in gold prices. Global gold ETFs flowed out 80 tons (about 4.5 billion U.S. dollars), and the speculative positions turned to net empty positions.

The World Gold Association stated that the market response caused by the Fed in July meeting may laid the foundation for the continuous decline of the US dollar and the rise in risk assets; this may be good for gold, but it may further enhance the Fed's determination.

Port coal inventory has ranked high in recent years

Recently, high temperature weather has continued, and the load of power plants has also reached a new high. At the same time, although port coal has signs of de -inventory, it is still at a high level in recent years.

According to the exclusive monitoring of CCTD China Coal Market Network, in recent days, the end -end coal consumption of power coal end of the 25 provinces has continued to rise and hit a new high in recent years. The left and right, below the same period of 2019 and 2020.

In terms of ports, CCTD pointed out that although the inventory of the northern port has declined compared with the previous high point, it still ranks high in the same period in recent years. On the whole, the port supply is sufficient, and the long -term coal is mainly based on the willingness of the power plant.

The General Administration of Market Supervision investigations and coal raising coal price behavior

The State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration announced on August 5th that the General Administration of Market Supervision has recently organized three investigation teams to go to Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi to conduct investigations, further strengthen the supervision of electrical coal prices, clarify the red line of law, and standardize the order of electric coal prices.

Through the investigation, the General Administration of Market Supervision initially identified 18 coal companies for suspected coal prices, and three trading centers were suspected of not performing government pricing.

The National Energy Administration pointed out at a online press conference held on August 2 that the State Energy Administration has recently deployed to carry out the long -term long -term contract performance supervision of electric coal nationwide to urge coal enterprises to increase the performance of the long -term contract performance of electric coal. Strictly implement national policies and improve the level of stable supply of electric coal.

Copper price stabilizer

Copper prices this week did not continue the previous rise, and the overall performance was stable. On August 6, Lun Tong closed at $ 7895.25/ton, a decrease of 0.3%from last weekend; Shanghai Copper rose to 60,760 yuan/ton on August 6, a slight increase of 1.1%from last weekend.

Donghai Futures Research Report pointed out that the recent market sentiment has shifted from optimism to cautious, and the pressure of copper price rebound has appeared; in terms of fundamental perspective, infrastructure and other infrastructure of power grids, copper rods have good production, new energy demand is restored, and demand for copper plate belt is resumed. ; The supply side, the maintenance factory's maintenance has not been fully ended, and the output has not been fully recovered, but the imports of copper refining ore in the first half of the year are high year -on -year.

The price of aluminum declines slightly

This week, aluminum prices reproduced a small fluctuation. Lun Aluminum closed at $ 2419.2/ton on August 6, a decrease of 2.5%from last weekend. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 18510 yuan/ton on August 6, a decrease of 1.3%from last weekend. Cinda Futures Research Report pointed out that the fundamentals of the internal and external disks of aluminum have been relatively obvious. Overseas production capacity is facing severe risk of energy shortage. Electricity prices have increased several times compared with 2020, and the cost increase has caused large -scale production reduction. The domestic market is increasing production and the downward cost. My steel network predicts that the production of electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase by 5.5%year -on -year.

Steel society inventory seven consecutive declines

According to the statistics of Lange Iron and Steel, the country's steel society inventory has declined for the seventh consecutive week this week. Among them, the decline in building material inventory has slowed down, and the decline in board inventory has accelerated slightly.

The comprehensive price of Lange Iron and Steel National Steel this week was 4389 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5%over the last week. The price of iron ore is mainly reduced, the price of scrap steel rises slightly, the price of coke has remained stable, the price of steel continues to rebound, and the production profit of steel mills has improved.

Lange Iron and Steel predicts that downstream demand will gradually come out of the off -season, and after the early steel mills are reduced, the supply and demand pattern of the steel market will improve further, and the steel prices will fluctuate up this week.

The price of iron ore declines slightly

Starting in late July, the price of iron ore rebounded again, which ended this week. As of August 5, domestic iron ore futures prices fell to 742 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 9%from the height of the week. Pu's iron ore rose slightly to $ 107/ton on August 5, and the lowest point in the week reached 103.8 US dollars/ton.

Lange Iron and Steel pointed out that the price of iron ore this week has fallen again after the early rebound of the iron ore. After the continuous decline in the operating rate of the main steel company's blast furnace, the rise has not increased, but the rise is not large. Willing may be enhanced.

Due to the continuous losses in the early stage, the iron ore inventory of the steel mills maintains a low level. In the later period, there may be demand for replenishment, which has a certain support for ore prices. run.

Energy crisis threats zinc supply

Zinc prices have risen significantly this week. As of the closing of August 5, the price of the zinc closed at 3475.95 US dollars/ton, a 5.3%increase from the closing price last week; the price of Shanghai zinc closed at 24350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5%from the closing price of last weekend.

Jianeng, the world's largest zinc producer, warned on August 4 that the current energy supply crisis in Europe is pose a huge threat to the supply of metal zinc. At present, Jianeng has discontinued production in a zinc smelting factory in Europe, which will lead to the decline in the company's zinc metal output this year.

Since March of this year, the market has been turbulent in the market for multiple commodity products, and the appearance of nickels has made many investors worry that this situation will be repeated in other metals.

Pig price decline probability increases

In terms of the pig market, after multiple factors boosted the price of pigs in June and July, the institution believed that there would be more factors in the pig market in August.

Zhuochuang Information pointed out that since late March, the price of pigs in the country has picked up. As the proper pig sources decreased, and the breeding end was gathered, the price of pig prices rose rapidly from mid -June to early July.

Entering August, the source of the proper pigs began to recover, and the source of the pigs and the secondary fattening fences and the secondary fertilizer will be released one after another. The trend of the shock decline.

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